Choco_commodity

คลิปไฮไลท์ แอสตันวิลล่า 4-1 แบล๊คเบิร์น โรเวอร์ 26-02-2011 - Aston Villa 4-1 Blackburn

2011-02-27T06:55:00.000-08:00

Aston Villa v Blackburn Rovers
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CBOT Soybean may fall to 1,086 cent/bushel

2010-09-29T05:36:00.000-07:00

CBOT soybean (Nov) may fall to 1,086 cent/bushel after cannot brake major resistance at 1,143 cent/bushel. Bearish signal in stochastic and moving average indicator will put pressure on price and add with fundamental bearish, good progress in US. soybean and corn harvest , rain fall in Brazil will reduce concern on its planting . I think the price collection from 1,144 cent/bushel so deep and it cannot stand over 1110 level (support uptrend line) that soybean trading range may decrease to 1,086-1,072 cent/bushel. I will wait to long soybean when buying signal in MACD occur.

India '10/11 Vegoil Imports Seen at Record 9.3 Mln T

2010-09-24T09:33:00.000-07:00

Sept 24 - India's vegetable oils imports were likely to rise 6 percent to a record 9.3 million tonnes in 2010/11 but soyoil imports will fall as its premium over competing palm oil widens, a leading trader and a top analyst said......more detail

Soybeans May Climb to $12 by December, Godrej Says

2010-09-24T09:28:00.000-07:00

Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans may extend gains from a 15-month high as dry weather threatens to parch harvests in Brazil and Argentina and a cold snap harms the crop in China, the biggest consumer, according to Godrej International Ltd.

Prices may trade between $11.50 a bushel and $12 a bushel by December, Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej, told an industry conference in Mumbai today. The company is one of the country’s biggest buyers of cooking oils.

Soybeans have advanced 21 percent since June 30 in Chicago on concern dryness in Brazil and Argentina, the top exporters after the U.S., may delay sowing. China bought 741,000 tons this week from the U.S., the Department of Agriculture said yesterday.....more detail

SOYBEANS AND THE LA NINA EFFECT

2010-09-24T09:25:00.000-07:00

The trading week started with November soybean futures surging to 15-month highs due to a frost/freeze in northeast China and Canada, and above all, the dryness in South America due to La Nina. The impact of the China freeze was a bit overblown because nearly one third of their bean crop has been harvested and the remaining crop in the field is thought to be mature enough so that this would not have much impact on yields. However, the dryness in key soybean growing areas in Mato Grosso, Brazil cannot be overlooked. .......more detail

Why We Watch the Price of Gold in All Currencies

2010-09-18T08:25:00.000-07:00

A common flaw that we see the average investor make is to follow their investments measured in foreign currencies and at the same time forget to calculate their local exchange rate on those investments. This is a HUGE mistake as the fluctuation of an investor’s home currency has a massive impact on their returns.

Some investors know that the price of gold has been performing well in the past few years but let’s look at the charts to see how well gold has done for investors around the world....read more

Best Trading Apps for iPad

2010-09-18T07:57:00.000-07:00

Best Trading Apps for iPad

The iPad suits the modern mobile trader. Traders need instant information at their finger tips; they need accessibility to their execution platforms and trading systems. News and communication systems are essential. In determine the best trading apps and best investor apps for iPad I have differentiated between short term trader and medium to long term for the best iPad apps.

The iPad brings to the table full-featured mobile trading platforms. The iPhone was just a little too small for anything but the basic functionality. The larger screen space on the iPad makes the iPad a real option for traders who may want to migrate from their notebook or laptop as a mobile trading station. While it is early days yet there are a number of iPad trading apps to build a successful mobile trading system.

First thing if you are trader are you have to be able to execute your trades. It seems all the big stock and futures brokers have their own dedicated trading apps for iPad. These brokers include TD Ameritrade, E*Trade, KIS Futures and Interactive Brokers. These trading apps feature real-time stock, options, futures and commodity prices.

Other trading apps available are portfolio tracking, technical analysis and charting and news alerts from Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters. Secure iPad apps for account confirmation and reconciliation are essential. If you are a trader you also need to check out best weather apps, best travel apps, business apps and investor apps for iPad when you are determining the best trading apps for your iPad.......read more

10 Best iPhone Apps For Finance and Investing

2010-09-18T07:48:00.000-07:00

Looking for the best iPhone Applications (Apps) for finance and investing?

Here on StockTradingToGo we’ve ranked the top 10 best finance and investing iPhone apps based on usability, functionality, overall “coolness”, and most importantly they have to be FREE. All of the apps featured below can be downloaded from the iTunes Store.

1. Chase Mobile – Download – Free app and a must have for any Chase customers. Find Chase branches, ATMs, or sign in to view your credit card bills and/or bank statements, make payments, transfer money, etc. Chase is our #1 favorite free banking app because of its new feature Chase QuickDeposit where you can take a picture of your checks and deposit them via your iPhone.......read more

This decade's investment: the agriculture play

2010-09-18T07:22:00.000-07:00

Farmer Brown here again. One of my key longer-term themes for growth investing is and has been the Agriculture Play for a few years now. The global demographics, while seemingly moving at a glacial pace to the short-term thinkers, are simply undeniable over the intermediate to longer term....read more

Investors Flock to Gold and Silver on Recovery Worries

2010-09-18T07:07:00.000-07:00

Investors worried about the global economic recovery pushed gold prices to fresh highs on Friday, marking the third time in a week the shiny metal set a new record. Silver also climbed to its highest price in thirty years.

Spot gold climbed above $1,282 an ounce in New York and London as a weakening dollar spurred demand from investors for wealth protection, while silver rose to $21.44 an ounce, its highest level since 1980.

Bullion, which usually moves inversely to the dollar, posted its biggest weekly gain since May as the greenback touched a five-week low against the euro.
Holdings in gold- backed exchange-traded products (ETP) reached a record this month as investors sought protection from financial turmoil and the prospect of slowing economic growth. ..read more

Corn: Low Yields, High Prices

2010-09-18T06:58:00.000-07:00

FOR CORN FARMERS AND FUTURES traders, the "new normal" might already be old news.

As recently as late spring, analysts were saying the long-term outlook was for prices of $3 to $4 a bushel. That would be roughly 50% below the record highs set in 2008, but above the $2 to $3 that was the historical average before the latest boom in ethanol use.

Since then, a historic Russian heat wave has sparked concern about global grain supplies, and U.S. farmers have reported disappointing yields. Investors are increasingly taking notice, and corn futures have surged 58% since late June. They finished Friday at $5.1325 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. While a short-term correction is likely, ultimately bulls could have enough ammo to keep bears at bay for months to come...read more

Why You Need to Own Gold

2010-09-18T06:53:00.000-07:00

IF YOU WERE TO TRAVEL 100 years into the future, never to return to 2010, what would you pack for the trip: $1 million in cash or $1 million in gold?

If you're like most of Northern Trust's clients, you'd pick the gold, says Bob Browne, chief investment officer for the Chicago-based high-end bank. "I would guess 99% of clients say 'I'll take the gold,'" he says, adding that gold has proved its value over and over again in the past century—in the faces of political upheaval, world wars and the debasement of currencies.

The yellow metal, which last week hit an record high of $1,275 an ounce, has been drawing a lot of attention lately from affluent investors and their advisors. Long considered an asset that only a conspiracy theorist could love, gold has suddenly become a staple in the model portfolios of private bankers and other advisors to the rich. Many experts now recommend about 5% of your assets be put in gold, chiefly as insurance against a massive financial crisis. When other assets are falling, you can count on gold to perform.........read more

Kazakhstan's Jan-July commodities exports

2010-09-13T05:05:00.000-07:00

Kazakhstan export of commodity increase from last year detail following below.

Export of commodity Jan-July 2010

Wheat = 3,018,2000 tons (+73.8% yoy)

Iron Ore = 9,682,000 tons (+36.6% yoy)

Coal = 17,046,400 tons (+24.8% yoy)

Oil products = 2,978,800 tons (+35.9% yoy)

Natural gas (mln cubic meters) = 11,015.2 (+5.6% yoy)

Ferro-alloys = 753,200 tons (+42% yoy)

Refined copper and alloys = 159,300 tons (-15.9% yoy)

Alumina = 104,200 tons (+40.1% yoy)

Zinc = 157,500 tons (-12.5% yoy)

Lead = 55,600 tons (+4.5% yoy)

U.S. Soybean crop bigger than expect by 1.5%

2010-09-10T10:32:00.000-07:00

USDA release soybean 2010/11 crop production will 3.483 billion bushels , increase from 3.359 billion bushels last year (record) and more than trade estimates around 3.41 billion bushels.

Soybean yield average 44.7 bushel per acre in 2010/11 , rise from record 44 bushels per acre in 2009/10 and larger than estimates at 43.7 bushels per acre.

US soybean 2010/11 ending stock is 350 million bushels, decrease from 360 million in USDA August estimated but larger than trader forecast 303 million bushels.

Supply still bearish for soybean prices, CBOT soybean Nov can't break resistance at 1047 cent/bushel that increase probability of soybean price will decrease to trading range 1020-1000 cent/bushel.

Argentina’ s wheat planting 4.27 million hectars in 2010/11

2010-09-10T10:01:00.000-07:00

Argentina’ s wheat production forecast by Buenos Aires Grains Exchange seen increase more than latest estimated. The sowing of Argentina wheat now complete, the exchange forecast planting area is 4.27 million hectares (10.55 million acres) up from previous estimated at 4.2 million hectares . The exchange expect production around 9.0 million and 10.5 million tons compare with USDA forecast (Aug) at 12 million tons. Dry Weather condition has been watch closely as it can affect 2010/11 crop in recent week.

The report from the Agriculture Research Institute shown high risk of dry condition on Argentina main wheat planting area. Buenos Aries where account for nearly half of total Argentina wheat production that receive rain fall only 28% from normal in August and Santa Fe No.3 wheat producer receive rain fall only 22% from normal , which this dry condition could be damage wheat crop and other.

NOAA (ENSO weekly update) reported

“La Niña condition are present across pacific ocean, Negative sea surface temperature anomalies persist across much of the Pacific Ocean and La Niña conditions are likely to continue through early 2011.”

La Niña condition increase risk to US and South American crop may affect from dry condition from September to early 2011 while wheat, soybean and corn will planting in that period of time.

Argentina Rainfall % from normal (Aug 10)

Buenos Aires 28%

Santa Fe 22%

Cordoba 6%

Entre Rios 60%

La Pampa 35%

India oil meal export August 2010

2010-09-07T06:35:00.000-07:00

India's oilmeal export in August 2010 increase to 244,075 tons up 14% compared same time last year.

Oilmeal export jumps by 14 pc in August

Australian Wheat Crop forecasts 2010

2010-09-07T05:59:00.000-07:00

The shortage of wheat supply around the world may lift interested of Australian wheat. The estimated of Australian wheat crop was increase to 22.25 million tons in 2010/11 from 21.66 million tons in 2009/10 and export may rise to 14 million tons from 13.87 million . (Data in table below)

Chococommodity : Technical Summary by commodity @ July 8,2010

2010-07-08T06:09:00.000-07:00

Chococommodity Technical Summary

Product	Contract month	Exchange	Close	Support	Resistance	Trend
Product	Contract month	Exchange	7-Jul-10	Support	Resistance	Trend
Brent	Aug	ICE	73.5	70.6	77.0	Bullish
NYMEX Wti	AUg	NYMEX	74.1	72.0	75.0	Bullish
Gold	July	COMEX	1,198.6	1,190.0	1,215.0	Bullish
Corn	Aug	CBOT	378.3	360.0	385.0	Bullish
Soybean	Aug	CBOT	967.8	940.0	985.0	Bullish
Wheat	Sep	CBOT	530.5	519.0	540.0	Bullish
Cocoa	Sep	NYBOT	2,981.0	2,940.0	3,055.0	Bearish
Coffee	Sep	NYBOT	163.1	157.0	169.0	Bullish
Sugar	Oct	NYBOT	17.1	16.9	17.5	Bullish

My comment : Commodity are bullish support from fundamental and technical. Price leader is crude oil an estimated stock reduction and EIA raised global oil consumption also support price. The agriculture product in CBOT wheat has support by hot and dry weather in EU could reduce EU wheat crop , Soybean USDA report soybean crop condition reduce from last week concern about yield that may not high as trade estimate and corn support buy weather condition too but trader will focus on USDA supply demand on this Friday.

Malaysia Palm Oil Price Estimated 2010-11

2010-07-07T06:44:00.000-07:00

The forecast of Malaysia palm oil price in a table below.

Japan Soymeal Supply Demand Estimate for 2010

2010-07-03T21:45:00.001-07:00

Ministry of Agriculture reported Japan soy meal consumption would be increase in 2010 to 3.850 million tonnes from 3.815 last year and ending stock decrease to 71,000 tonnes from 111,000 tonnes in 2009.

USDA Soybean planting estimated June

2010-07-03T08:55:00.000-07:00

USDA release soybean planting 2010/11 estimate indicated that farmer could be increase production to 3,346 million bushels and ending stock may rise to 397 million bushels from 360 million bushels in June 10 estimate. However good weather condition may rise soybean yield, Informa sees U.S. soybean crop at 3,385 million bushels at yield 43.4 bushel/acre.
Bearish factor for new crop soybean prices.

Corn price bullish from ending stock (2010/11) could be reduce to 1,447 million bushels from previous estimated at 1,573.

Wheat ending stock would be increase to 1,043 million acre from last estimate 991. The fundamental of wheat still weak but big gain in corn price are support wheat and soybean price in this week.

Japan Soybean Supply Demand Estimates for 2010

2010-07-02T07:56:00.000-07:00

Japan soybean supply and demand estimated reported by ministry of agriculture......

Brazil Major Commodity Export Report on June ,2010

2010-07-02T06:07:00.000-07:00

The world Major exporter of many commodity reported export data of major commodity for june in the table below....

U.S. Corn export to China May-Jun 10

2010-07-02T05:13:00.000-07:00

US corn price have support from China demand that bought more than 1 million tones of U.S. corn in this year...

Palm Oil Falls With Crude Amid Concern Over Soybean Harvest

2010-03-15T06:30:00.001-07:00

March 15 (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil fell a third day, tracking crude oil, and on concerns over higher soybean supplies from the South American harvest, reducing the need for substitutes.

May-delivery palm oil futures dropped as much as 1.2 percent to 2,618 ringgit ($790) a metric ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange and traded at 2,621 ringgit at 12:06 p.m. Crude for April delivery in New York declined as much as 0.6 percent to $80.75 a barrel in Asian trading, and last traded at $80.81 a barrel. Palm oil, used as an alternative fuel additive, lost 0.8 percent last week as crude oil dropped 0.3 percent..............more detail

Weekend Commodities Review

2010-03-15T06:12:00.001-07:00

General Comments

Market congestion is building for a volatile breakout - or breakdown depending on the market. 'Hurry up and go nowhere' trading is about to end, I suspect, with a strong stock market decline bringing commodities along for the ride starting Monday.

Energies

Critical technical resistance on crude oil within $2 of Friday's closing price should be sold into with stops above. Put buying is the preferred defined risk approach. Natural gas is a strong buy with straight calls for July or beyond. The heating oil versus rbob spread is actually just about right so no play there for now.

Financials

The S&P has shown significant strength bolstered by strong retail sales and economic rebound-like numbers coming out of several key reports. Sell this rally with stops above 1164 or with bear put spreads. I expect 25 points down by Wednesday if not sooner. Bonds remain a strong buy. The dollar is stuck in choppy land with no clear directions on how to get back on the road to the bull trend highway, but this week is setup to be a difference maker. Expect the dollar to run to 81.50 quickly on this bear move forecast in the S&P being the catalyst. I continue to standby my prediction that:........................more detail

China Soy Meal Demand May Rise in Second Quarter, Analyst Says

2010-03-15T06:09:00.000-07:00

March 15 (Bloomberg) -- Demand for soybean meal in China, the world’s biggest importer of soybeans, may increase in the second quarter, boosting consumption of the oilseed, Shanghai JC Intelligence Co. said.

Government measures to support hog prices will spur farmers to increase pig inventory and warmer temperatures in the spring will boost fish and shrimp farming, animal husbandry analyst Helen Huang said in telephone interview from Shanghai.

China’s soybean meal prices have fallen to the lowest in almost a year on declining hog inventory, paring margins earned by crushers and slowing imports of the oilseed. China last week said it may invoke stockpiling measures to bolster hog prices.

“I think in April to May we will see demand for soybean meal picking up,” Cao Hongrun, a feedstock buyer for Shunde Wanghai Feed Co., said by phone from Guangdong. “Government support does create a psychological support, and fish and shrimp farmers are preparing to seed their ponds.”.........more detail

Morning Call by Bryce Knorr

2010-03-15T06:07:00.000-07:00

Look for futures to open a little lower this morning, with lack of fresh fundamentals and cautious outside market's keeping traders nervous. The Federal Reserve meets to consider monetary policy Tuesday, keeping most markets cautious unless breaking news intervenes.

Corn could see a light selling on the open this morning, but the market appears to be trying to build a base to confirm a low after holding February lows.

Volume was very weak on Friday just 122,000 contracts, with open interest gaining as futures held. The latest Commitment of Traders showed speculative hedge funds were light sellers in the latest week, though they remain with a modest net long position.

A turn to a drier forecast this week could help improve soils as farmers try to get back into the field. Most areas will be dry until the end of the week.

Otherwise, traders have little to chew on directly in the grain market this morning, taking their cues instead from outside forces. Chinese stocks moved sharply lower again the morning, with investors bracing for the central bank there to raise interest rates to keep their economy from overheating, though no new measures were announced today.......more detail

Retail Sales in U.S. Unexpectedly Rose in February

2010-03-12T09:04:00.000-08:00

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly climbed in February as shoppers braved blizzards to get to the malls, signaling consumers will contribute more to economic growth.

Purchases increased 0.3 percent, the fourth gain in the past five months, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Figures for the prior two months were revised down, taking some of the shine off of today’s data. Sales excluding autos rose 0.8 percent, exceeding all estimates.......more detial

Hedge your bets with commodities

2010-03-12T09:01:00.000-08:00

When inflation gets going, investors need a decent hedge - and commodities are a good answer.

In recent months inflation has picked up sharply and is set to continue rising in the near future amid a stuttering economic recovery.

Mark Bolsom, head of UK trading desk at Travelex commented: "Inflation is to continue rising, as the pound continues to depreciate in value against a basket of currencies. Long-term inflation forecasts are very dependent on the policy-makers ability to bring it under control and at the moment they are unable to use traditional inflationary control measures because they don't want to choke recovery in its infancy."

Latest figures from the Office of National Statistics show the headline rate of inflation hit a 14 month high in February. Its rapid rise to 3.5% - the peak predicted by the Bank of England - has fuelled fears that it will prove stickier than expected and fall back to the government's 2% target more slowly.

If this is the case, investing in commodities could prove a smart move.......more detial

Oil Fluctuates as Retail Sales Gain, Consumer Sentiment Drops

2010-03-12T08:56:00.000-08:00

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fluctuated after U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in February and a separate report showed that confidence among U.S. consumers declined this month.

“There’s a rush to interpret every new piece of economic data,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy at MF Global in New York. “We did reach $83.16, a new high, but otherwise today is a sleeper.”

Crude oil for April delivery rose 18 cents to $82.29 a barrel at 10:58 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices touched $83.16, the highest since Jan. 11. Futures are up 1 percent this week and are 75 percent higher than a year ago.

Brent crude oil for April delivery rose 22 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $80.50 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Prices climbed earlier as the dollar weakened against the euro and the International Energy Agency bolstered its outlook for global fuel demand this year......more detial

Soy crush prospects poor in US, and worse in India

2010-03-12T08:53:00.000-08:00

American soybean crushers face tougher times – but not as tricky as those besetting their Indian peers, which are being undercut by cheaper imported oilseed products.

US processors typically suffer a seasonal decline in the spring, as South American competitors begin to chew through the region's crops and regain share of export markets.

But they face a "sharper than usual" fall this year, thanks to flat American markets for soyoil and soymeal, the US Department of Agriculture said......more detial

Grain Complex

2010-03-12T08:49:00.000-08:00

The CRB TrendTrader report is Short Soybeans, Wheat, Corn, Meal, Oats, Rice and Long Bean Oil.

See full position report below.

Remember - day traders work for the markets - Trend Traders let the markets work for them, the Trend is your friend!

The CRB Futures Market Service is one of the oldest and most respected market letters in the industry since 1934.

Grains

Grain prices this morning are higher. May corn this morning is up +1-1/4 cents, May soybeans are up +5-3/4 cents, and May wheat is up +4-3/4 cents. The grain markets yesterday finished mostly lower. May corn closed unchanged, May soybeans closed down -26-1/2 cents, and May wheat closed down -3 cents. May corn and May soybeans fell to 1-month lows and May wheat plunged to a 5-month low. Bearish factors included (1) the decline in gasoline which undercuts ethanol prices and corn demand, (2) carry-over weakness in wheat prices after the USDA Wednesday hiked US wheat stockpiles to a 22-year high, (3) slack foreign demand for US corn after the USDA reported US corn sales in the week ended Mar 4 plunged -56% from a week earlier, and (4) concerns that more buyers of US soybeans will cancel purchases and seek supplies from South America after the USDA reported that buyers canceled 115,808 metric tons of US soybeans purchased in the week ended Mar 4. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, and (2) increased foreign demand for US wheat after the USDA reported that US wheat sales for the week ended Mar 4 quadrupled from the previous week. ......more detial

Wheat production and global demand

2010-03-12T08:47:00.000-08:00

U.S. wheat export demand is steady for the second straight month in a growing world market according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) for March 2010. Producers around the world have responded to growing demand by producing record crops recently. As a result, USDA forecasts that global ending stocks for 2009/10 (June-May) will be 196.8 million metric tons (MMT) up 60 percent from a recent low of 123.3 MMT in 2007/08......more detial

Payrolls in U.S. Fell 36,000 in February: Unemployment at 9.7%

2010-03-05T05:43:00.000-08:00

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- The jobless rate in the U.S. held at 9.7 percent in February and employment declined less than forecast even as severe winter weather may have forced some employers to temporarily close.

Payrolls dropped 36,000 last month after a 26,000 decrease in January, figures from the Labor Department in Washington showed today. Employment fell in construction and increased at temporary-help services. While more people entered the workforce, the unemployment rate was unexpectedly unchanged.

Blizzards during the week that the government surveys businesses and households on jobs set seasonal snowfall records in cities including Washington and Philadelphia, prompting many Americans to stay home. The economic expansion that began last year has yet to generate sustained gains in employment, raising the risk that the recovery will cool as households keep a lid on spending........more detail

Barchart U.S. Morning Call

2010-03-05T05:36:00.000-08:00

Overnight Developments

Global stocks are stronger with the European DJ Stoxx 50 Index up +0.58% at a 1-month high and March S&Ps up +4.60 points at a 1-1/4 month high. Global stocks gained ahead of the Feb US payrolls report that will provide clues about the strength of the recovery. The dollar and Treasuries are little changed and most commodities are higher. Greece successfully raised 5 billion euros ($6.8 billion) in a sale of 10-year bonds and Jean-Claude Juncker, who heads the group of Euro-Zone finance ministers, said Greece "won't be left alone" as it tries to tame a record budget deficit. European stocks also received a boost after Jan German factory orders rose a more-than-expected +4.3% m/m and +19.6% y/y. The +4.3% m/m increase is the biggest monthly gain in 2-1/2 years as a revival in global demand shows the recovery strengthening. Basic-resource producers rallied as commodity prices rose and Volkswagen AG, Europe's largest automaker, climbed 2.3% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to "buy" from "hold." Limiting gains in European stocks was the 1.1% drop in Salzgitter AG after Germany's second-largest steelmaker posted a full-year net loss of 386.9 million euros, wider than analysts' estimates of a 239 million-euro loss.
The Asian markets today closed higher with Japan up +2.20%, Hong Kong +1.03%, China +0.28%, Taiwan +1.27%, Australia +0.35%, Singapore +0.78%, South Korea +1.01%, India +0.13%. The yen weakened and Japanese stocks gained after the Nikkei newspaper reported that the BOJ would discuss ways to lower short-term rates at its 2-day policy meeting starting March 16. Japanese exporters were boosted after the yen dropped and Asian shipping companies gained after the Baltic Dry Index, a gauge of shipping rates, soared 7.2%, its biggest increase since July. Chinese stocks came off of their best levels after Premier Wen Jiabao warned of "latent risk" in China's banks and pledged to crack down on property speculation as the government struggles to avert building asset bubbles. Wen also said the government will promote the yuan's usage abroad and aims to manage inflation expectations........more detail

The Day Ahead: Employment Situation Report and Consumer Credit

2010-03-05T05:35:00.001-08:00

Equity futures are firmly higher this morning ahead of February employment numbers. Payrolls are expected to continue declining but investors are reacting positively to news that the Bank of Japan could initiate measures to protect the economy from deflation.

Overseas markets have been positive across the board, including a 2.20% gain in Japan, a 1.03% gain in Hong Kong, and gains of around 1% in Europe.

“The Nikkei posted its strongest week of the year as the yen weakened amid speculation that the BoJ will undertake further easing,” noted analysts from BMO. “Meantime, a successful 10-year bond sale by Greece (which raised €5 bln), and stronger-than-expected factory data, are giving Europe a lift, though the euro is little changed.”

Two hours before the opening bell, Dow futures are up 35 points to 10,466 while S&P 500 futures are off 5.10 points to 1,127.40.

Commodities remain mixed. WTI crude oil is up 46 cents to $80.67 per barrel but Spot Gold is down $9.60 per ounce to $1,133.70........more detail

Commodities Buzz: Soybeans Harvest Hits 50% In Mato Grosso

2010-03-05T05:31:00.000-08:00

In Mato Grosso, 50% of the 09/10 soybean crop have been harvested, amounting to 3.1 million hectares. Although the percentage is above the performance of last season, which in this same period reached 35.2% of the area, the state producers fear further damage until the end of the harvest........more detail

GRAINS-CBOT soy, grains firm ahead of US jobs data

2010-03-05T05:23:00.000-08:00

MARKETS-GRAINS/(UPDATE 2)

* Steady dollar supports in subdued trade

* Grains stay forex-sensitive, bearish fundamentals cap

* Corn may find support in planting hitches, ethanol demand

* Coming up: U.S. February non-farm payrolls at 1330 GMT

(Updates with quotes, European trading, previous SYDNEY)

By Bruce Hextall and Gus Trompiz

PARIS/SYDNEY, March 5 (Reuters) - Chicago soybean and grain futures clawed back ground on Friday as a steady dollar supported soft commodities after a day of heavy losses.

Gains were modest as the market awaited the release later on Friday of the U.S. employment report for February, seen as a key indicator of the pace of economic recovery.

Grain markets were also waiting for direction from next Wednesday's closely watched World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

"Currrency and grains markets will be choppy in front of those U.S. employment numbers tonight and if the numbers point to an improving U.S. economy you will see a rally in global equities markets and the dollar but grains could fall," said Garry Booth, an adviser at MF Global Australia.

A rising dollar makes U.S. priced commodities more expensive for buyers holding other currencies and tends to push prices of those commodities lower, as happened in Chicago on Wednesday.

Bearish fundamentals continued to cap gains, including upgrades to projected Argentine soybean and corn crops by Informa Economics on Thursday.

The respected analytical firm raised its estimate of Argentina's 2009/10 soybean production to 55.0 million tonnes and its corn production to 21.0 million tonnes, trade sources said..

In Brazil, meanwhile, the soybean harvest is gathering pace, encouraging China, the world's largest soy importer, to switch to buying supplies from the South American nation, the No. 2 soybean exporter, rather than from the United States.

China made no purchases of U.S. soybeans in the latest week......More detail

Gold Price Steady Above $1,100

2010-02-23T06:48:00.000-08:00

GOLD PRICE NEWS - The gold price has closed within the narrow $25 band of $1,090 to $1,115 over the past eight trading days. Gold price volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index, has fallen 12.5% over the past two weeks as both stock and commodity markets have recovered their early February losses. The prices of gold mining stocks, after rallying over 10% in the first two weeks of the month as measured by the Market Vectors Gold Mining ETF (GDX), have settled into a narrow trading range.

Whether the breakout in the price of gold is to the upside or to the downside could be driven by the perception of investors as to the speed at which crisis-driven monetary policy is unwound. There has been some level of confusion with respect to global monetary policy, specifically the question of if central banks have begun to shift away from the ultra-easy stance that has been in place over the past eighteen months......more detail

Morning markets: rain fears help crops hold gains

2010-02-23T06:46:00.000-08:00

The danger for crop investors was that Tuesday would be one of the Turnaround variety.

Chicago-watchers say that a strong trend on a Monday is often reversed the next day, implying that its investors should brace for sharp losses today.

However, as of 07:30 GMT, weakness had yet to set in in any meaningful way, with the grains showing only marginal losses and soybeans keeping their nose above water.

The dollar was on food commodities' side, slipping a touch, and so making US exports look cheaper.

Investors are expecting the Federal Reserve to quash expectations of an imminent interest rate rise which were stoked by last week's tightening of terms in which America's central bank lends to commercial banks......more detail

Consumer Confidence Data Awaited As Traders Seek More Clarity - RTTNews Daily Market Analysis

2010-02-23T06:37:00.000-08:00

(RTTNews) - The major U.S. index futures are pointing to a lower opening on Tuesday, with the recovery theme getting a hit following the release of an economic report from across the Atlantic showing a dip in German business confidence. In reaction, commodities prices are experiencing weakness. However, corporate earnings were bordering on the positive, with home improvement retailer Home Depot (HD) reporting better than expected results and announcing an increase in its dividend......more detail

Soybeans Rise for a Second Day as Weaker Dollar Attracts Buyers

2010-02-23T06:28:00.001-08:00

Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans gained for a second day as a weaker dollar made U.S. supplies more attractive to importers.

The U.S. currency fell against the euro on speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold its target interest rate near zero to sustain a recovery in the world’s biggest economy. Speculative short positions, or bets prices will drop, fell 15 percent to 75,034 contracts in the week ended Feb. 16, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

“It’s the big funds buying in the grain market, covering their previous short positions,” Johnston Bae, a grains broker at Eugene Investment & Futures Co., said from Seoul. “They must be taking advantage of the weakness in the dollar.”

Soybeans for May delivery rose 2 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $9.71 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade at 10:51 a.m. London time. The contract added 1.5 percent yesterday.

Demand for soybeans in China, the world’s biggest buyer of the oilseed, will remain “huge and irreversible” Han Jun, director of the rural economy department at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said at a press conference in Beijing today........More detail

Two Needs for Higher Wheat Prices

2010-02-22T08:06:00.000-08:00

by Kim Anderson, Oklahoma State University Professor and Extension Economist

More Wheat News!

Visit the Virtual Wheat Tour at www.VirtualWheatTour.com.

The market tried to take out the $5.10 price resistance level with the KCBT March wheat contract and failed. The downtrend is broken and a sideways pattern between $4.80 and $5.10 has been established. Technically, the good news is that Tuesday's 18-cent rally set a new short-term top and the volume (number of contracts traded) was high. Lower prices on Wednesday and Thursday were with relatively low volume.

At the USDA Annual Outlook Conference, the USDA released estimates for 2010/11 wheat, corn and soybean planted acres, production and ending stocks. These estimates are not based on surveys and are not "official." Official estimates will be released March 31. 2010 wheat production is estimated to be 1.945 billion bushels (bb). Ending stocks are estimated to be 940 million bushels (mb) compared to 981 mb for the 2009/10 marketing year. The average annual 2010/11 price is estimated to be $4.90 compared to $4.85 for the 2009/10 marketing year..........more detail

Allendale Early Calls: Corn Turns Bearish, Cattle Feeders Make Extreme Price Gains

2010-02-22T08:03:00.000-08:00

CMEGroup Grain Futures Calls:

-March corn called 2 to 5 higher.

-March soybeans called 7 to 10 higher.

-March wheat called 1 to 2 higher.

March US dollar is down 16 at 80.55. April crude is up $.48 at $80.54. March Dow futures are up 49.

Economic Information:

-Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke will give is bi-annual testimony to congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

-A second revision to our fourth quarter GDP rates is due later this week. The trade expects the original reading of a 5.7% growth to be revised to a 5.6% rate.
-Israel’s prime minister calls for an oil embargo on Iran, even without official UN sanctions.

-The National Association for Business Economics indicated the economy is growing. They do expect unemployment to remain above 9% the entire year though.
-Consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and home prices and sales will be out this week.

-Rumors circulate that Germany has prepared a 20 to 25 billion euro bailout package for Greece.

Weather:

-The rain and snow system will finish up in the east this morning. There are no forecasts for precip in the Midwest through next week.

Grain Market Influences:

The government’s very mild inflation report on Friday, the CPI, showed a very mild 0.2% increase for January. That should alleviate fears of inflation and also keep the Fed from raising interest rates. That is supportive to crude oil and therefore grains.

Corn summary… This was an interesting commodity week with many emotional stories to swing thinking from bullish bearish. Corn ended the day +2 3/4 and the week -1 1/2 cents. Ag news this week included Japan and S Korea balking about US quality.

Soybean summary… It was another very low volume trading day in beans today. This morning started with a day session reaction to the higher dollar and after that trade was dead calm for the rest of the day. Next week we get China back into the market. They have been tied up with the Lunar New Year holidays. That is not to say they will come back into the market causing an instant reaction but they can give us some demand news to trade from.

The focus will remain on South American soybean production this week. Is Argentina too wet? Is Brazil really that good looking?

Wheat summary… It is encouraging is to see the 3rd weekly higher close for the wheat despite nearby neutral fundamentals. Technically, higher wheat futures are extremely important this time of year. Fundamentally, we view the weekly export sales as neutral for this week.

The Philippines purchased 25,000 tonnes of feed wheat overnight. Officially it is optional origin but the trade views likely suppliers as either Ukraine or South America.

The private industry continues to up their estimates of potential Indian wheat exports. One report suggests they may export up to 2.5 million metric tonnes after June. The sales would only be made as special one time government to government sales.

An economist with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation suggests 2010 wheat production could fall by 5%. .........more detail

Hedge Funds Have Largest Short Position Against Euro Ever

2010-02-21T05:00:00.000-08:00

Based on data reported to the CFTC, Societe Generale has released its latest monthly hedge fund report that examines what speculators are buying and selling across various asset classes. SocGen's research indicates that hedge funds have again turned to sellers of U.S. equities, but on a smaller level than before. This is something we saw last week when we noted hedge funds had their lowest net long position in equities since May 2009......More detail

Weekly Review: FED Raises Discount Rate

2010-02-21T04:51:00.000-08:00

Late last Thursday, in a surprise move, the FED raised its Discount Rate to 0.75% from 0.50%.

The move caused the dollar to strengthen across the board, and left the Dollar Index at its highest level in 8 months. Before the FED move, the dollar had been moving higher last week against the Euro, Pound and Yen.

The dollar’s initial strength occurred even as equities and commodities rallied. Media outlets were attributing the dollar’s strength to positive economic numbers even though Jobless Claims and the FOMC Minutes were unspectacular. Therefore, at GFC Markets, we believe that the dollar may be benefitting from short term institutional funds being rotated into the dollar from the euro and pound. The goal would be to park funds in dollars until the Greece economic turmoil boils over......More detail

Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange: Weekly Market Views - February 21, 2010

2010-02-21T04:43:00.000-08:00

Commodities Overview

Currencies Overview

Commodities prices may be volatile this coming week, but with an upward bias. Over the past few weeks oil, gold, and other commodities have demonstrated strong support around recent price levels. Sharp increases in the dollar, the IMF’s announcement that it was moving toward public sales of 191 metric tonnes (6.1 million ounces) of its gold, the U.S. Fed’s raising the discount rate, evidence of stronger economic growth in the United States and other parts of the world, and stronger corporate earnings and equity markets all have failed to trigger a major sell-off in gold. Prices have dipped in response to announcements related to these developments, but the declines have not been particularly large. Nor have they been protracted. Each dip has been answered by significant buying from investors seeking to add to their gold positions whenever prices drop. Energy prices may take a breather this week, following strength last week. Even so, demand remains in an upward trend, and investors remain interested in energy assets as likely to appreciate in value as real economic activity continues to expand in most parts of the world. Periodic bouts of investor doubt over the course of economic trends will occasionally push prices, however, but the trend is upward......more detail

The U.S. dollar is expected to continue along the path of recent weeks, showing overall strength but consolidating its gains against major currencies rather than running away to higher levels. The dollar is showing strength, reflecting investor attitudes that the U.S. economy may register stronger growth in 2010 and 2011 than Europe and Japan. The strength in the dollar has not been one-way, however: The dollar’s exchange rate against the euro and other currencies has been and is expected to continue to be volatile. While there is a clear upward bias emerging for the dollar, it also is clear that on-going fiscal, budgetary, and trade concerns remain in the forefront of investors’ minds. The dollar is looking stronger against other major traded currencies such as the euro, pound, yen and Swiss franc, but it is a matter of degrees of unattractiveness that is helping boost the dollar at this time. As a result, the dollar may show signs of consolidation this week, as part of a longer term upward trend against other major traded currencies. The dollar will remain vulnerable relative to the rupee and currencies from emerging economies and commodities exporting nations, however. Political tensions also could hit the dollar this week.

Technical Summary: GOLD Reversal Rally Eyes The 1,127.00 Level

2010-02-20T05:37:00.000-08:00

Technical Summary: GOLD Reversal Rally Eyes The 1,127.00 Level

GOLD was seen reversing its two-day loses on Friday bouncing off the 1,099.33 level and targeting its Feb 17’10 high at 1,127.00. The commodity will have to decisively break and hold above that level to create scope for the resumption of its corrective recovery triggered off the 1,044.20 level. The 1,141.48 level comes in as the next resistance. CRUDE OIL remains on the offensive following through on its Thursday recovery and testing a high of 80.24 on Friday. The commodity requires a break and hold above the 79.43/80.72 level to open the door for further upside gains towards its 2010 high at 83.93. SILVER now looks to head higher towards the 16.92 level following a reversal of its two-day correction on Friday. A break and hold above the 16.92 level will create further upside risk towards the 17.23 level. Although WHEAT still retains its corrective recovery bias, its failure at the 509 level and its subsequent declines has halted further corrective upside gains and turned threats to the downside towards its YTD low at 466. CORN maintains a similar pattern like Wheat. It has turned lower off the 368 level and now eyes its 2010 low at 347 though currently seen hesitating.....more detail

Euro Weakens After Fed Hikes Discount Rate, Greece Concerns

2010-02-19T06:47:00.000-08:00

The Federal Reserve hiked the discount rate 25 basis points to 75 basis points late Thursday, sending the U.S. Dollar sharply higher. This buying spree spilled over into the overnight trade pushing the Dollar Index closer to the all-important major 50% level at 82.63.

The discount rate hike by the Fed was implemented to encourage banks to borrow more from the private sector. This move does not reflect a change in monetary policy despite market reactions and analyst commentaries to the contrary. Some have interpreted the action by the Fed as a move towards monetary-policy normalization although the Fed insists this is not the case. As far as the Fed is concerned, its official statement is that interest rates will remain low for an "extended period".

What it could mean is that the Fed is comfortable enough to begin hiking rates although it is not a change in monetary policy. In addition, I think it sends a clear signal that the emergency supply of liquidity that helped fund the economic recovery is done. It could also be interpreted as a psychological move by the Fed for investors to get ready for the future course of monetary policy. This action by the Fed is basically signaling that future rates are more likely to go up, rather than stabilize or go down.......more detail

USDA Exports: Corn Up, Soybeans & Wheat Down, Beef Sales To Mexico

2010-02-19T06:23:00.000-08:00

Wheat: Net sales of 408,900 metric tons for delivery in 2009/10 were down 25 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Nigeria (162,900 MT), Japan (83,200 MT), Mexico (63,300 MT), South Korea (32,000 MT), the Philippines (30,800 MT), Morocco (29,800 MT), and Canada (25,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (60,000 MT). Net sales of 54,500 MT for delivery in 2010/11 were for the Philippines (49,500 MT) and unknown destinations (5,000 MT). Exports of 364,600 MT were down 19 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (89,100 MT), Nigeria (88,500 MT), Taiwan (33,100 MT), Mexico (32,900 MT), Morocco (31,100 MT), and South Korea (24,600 MT).

Corn: Net sales of 974,600 MT for delivery in 2009/10 were up 31 percent from the previous week, but down 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (335,000 MT, including 125,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,700 MT), Mexico (186,000 MT), Egypt (66,000 MT), Syria (60,000 MT), South Korea (58,400 MT), Guatemala (51,800 MT), and the Dominican Republic (46,300 MT, including 15,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were report for unknown destinations (124,700 MT) and Colombia (17,000 MT). There were no sales reported for delivery in 2010/11. Exports of 652,200 MT were up 8 percent from the previous week, but down 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (226,500 MT), Mexico (148,300 MT), South Korea (115,000 MT), Ecuador (33,400 MT), Canada (28,600 MT), Saudi Arabia (23,500 MT), and Taiwan (20,100 MT).

Soybeans: Net sales of 203,600 MT for delivery in 2009/10--a marketing-year low--were down 35 percent from the previous week and 65 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (117,700 MT), the Netherlands (79,900 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Indonesia (59,300 MT), Syria (43,300 MT, including 38,800 MT switched from unknown destinations), Turkey (42,500 MT, including 8,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 17,100 MT), Spain (32,500 MT, switched from unknown destinations), and France (27,500 MT, switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (279,000 MT). Net sales of 300 MT for delivery in 2010/11 were for Japan. Exports of 1,119,000 MT were down 7 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (561,200 MT), Taiwan (81,000 MT), the Netherlands (79,900 MT), Syria (68,300 MT), Egypt (66,100 MT), and Mexico (58,200 MT).

......More detail

Cargill Sees Record Soybean Output in Brazil, Argentina on Rain

2010-02-19T06:19:00.000-08:00

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil and Argentina, the biggest soybean producers after the U.S., may harvest as much as a combined 120 million metric tons of the oilseed this year as rain boosts yields, Cargill Inc.’s Jose Luiz Glaser said.

Brazil will produce 64 million to 67 million tons of soybeans, while Argentina will harvest another 52 million to 53 million tons, Glaser, head of Cargill’s soybean business in Brazil, said in a telephone interview from Sao Paulo today......more detail

USDA Sees Record Corn Crop, But Downturn in Soybeans and Wheat

2010-02-19T06:07:00.000-08:00

USDA sees a return to trend yields on corn and soybeans for 2010 while wheat yields are forecast to decline as there are fewer acres planted to higher-yielding soft red winter wheat, according to commodity outlooks delivered by USDA analysts at the Outlook Forum......more detail

Corn, Wheat, Soybeans Drop as Fed’s Rate Increase Boosts Dollar

2010-02-19T05:41:00.000-08:00

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Corn, wheat and soybeans declined after the Federal Reserve raised the discount rate for the first time in more than three years, boosting the dollar and potentially crimping overseas demand for U.S. crop supplies.

Corn for May delivery fell as much as 1.1 percent to $3.65 a bushel in after-hours electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price also fell after the U.S., the world’s biggest grower, raised estimates for corn planting........(more detail)

World Gold Consumption

2010-02-18T07:36:00.000-08:00

World Gold consumption fell 11% in year 2009, the high prices pressure on industrial demand but in other hand demand for investment increase. Data below showing global gold demand in year 2007-2009.

Top 10 Gold reserve by country as of Dec 2009

2010-02-18T07:21:00.000-08:00

The IMF announce to selling 191.3 tonnes of gold that could be pressure on gold futures. Last year since September IMF has sold 212 tonnes with biggest purchase is India, which bought 200 tonnes of gold (6.7 billion). Data below show Top 10 gold reserve by country as of Dec 2009.

Jim Roger Interview on CNBC 16 Jan 2010

2010-01-16T18:37:00.000-08:00

Jim Roger, commodity investment guru interview on CNBC Jan, 16 2010. Now he focus on agriculture commodity like cocoa or coffee....

China still buy US soybean

2009-11-24T08:19:00.000-08:00

There was a lot of good prospect news indicated that huge demand of soybean from China . This week export inspection reach new high since 1997 at 73.8 million bushels. Accumulation soybean inspections to date is 32.5% of the USDA's projected for this marketing year better than 5 year average of 28.5%. Inspection average required 21.5 million bushels per week to reach the USDA's projection for this year (09/10).

The China's Commerce Ministry has revised their November soybean import to 2.86 million tonnes and December to 2.95 million tonnes that was higher than October import at 2.52 million but lower than trade estimated at 3 - 3.5 million tonnes.

Demand from China still high and it's still a support factor for US soybean price.

Updated Brazil soybean planting 24 Nov 2009

2009-11-24T06:51:00.000-08:00

Hi everyone I already come back from my vacation...that's great. I will change direction for my blog to mainly focus on soybean that suitable for me the update blog.

By the way, yesterday USDA reported US soybean harvest at 94% complete compare to 89% week ago and 97% last year. The USDA attache show the Brazil soybean production will become near record 63.6 million tonnes. The benefit from El Nino rain was encourage farmer planting earlier. The Celeres reported Brazilian soybean producers planted 74% of the new crop by the weekend of Nov 20, up from 61% last week.

The state of Mato Grosso is the first state to plant which already plant 98% of its expected crop last week up from 87% from week ago and 88% last year.

The area of Goias and Mato Grosso de sul, No4 and 5 soybean producer state had planted 94% of new crop, up from 82% last week and 86% last year.

In Parana area had planted 83% of expected crop, up from 72% week ago and 78% year ago.

The third soy state Rio Grande do sul had planted 38%, up from 25% last week and 40% last year.

From early planting Brazil soybean will start harvest in late December to January in Mato Grosso and goes down in the South in May.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil rose 21.3%

2009-11-17T06:41:00.000-08:00

Export of Malaysian plam oil for Nov 1-15 was 717,936 tonnes increase 21.3% from 591,791 tonnes last month. The SGS reported export palm products in detail below;

Unit: tonnes
Nov 1-15 Oct 1-15
Crude palm oil 155,073 89,670
RBD palm oil 79,931 77,825
RBD palm olein 286,847 263,614
RBD palm stearin 70,660 46,205
Crude palm kernel oil 16,500 7,600
Processed palm kernel oil 24,530 22,547
Oleochemicals 30,136 16,940

Export Malaysian Palm product by country

Nov 1-15 Oct 1-15
China 199,890 140,331
EU 165,791 120,040
Pakistan 55,000 48,800
USA 12,290 26,702
India 72,700 49,210

USDA Grain inspection weekend of Nov 12,2009

2009-11-17T06:26:00.000-08:00

GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
                           - 1,000 BUSHELS -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                      CURRENT      PREVIOUS
              ------------ WEEK ENDING -----------  MARKET YEAR   MARKET YEAR
GRAIN           11/12/09      11/05/09      11/13/08    TO DATE       TO DATE

WHEAT            15,047        17,778        18,367       393,369       570,276
RYE                   0             0             0             0             0
OATS                  0             3            11            63           299
BARLEY                0            20            60           894         8,488
FLAXSEED              0             0             1           383           213
CORN             21,937        27,766        30,402       347,586       335,803
SORGHUM           4,005         4,595         2,372        34,277        37,149
SOYBEANS         59,845        64,037        42,450       347,548       274,926
SUNFLOWER             0             0             0             0             0

TOTAL           100,834       114,199        93,663     1,124,120     1,227,154
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWERSEEDS.

Full reported here

CBOT Corn pre open, Nov 11,2009

2009-11-11T06:40:00.000-08:00

Corn

Overnight corn (Dec9) was up 2.5 cent, USD index lower ,Eu+Asia equity higher and crude oil still high...Outside market factor was support corn prices.
Corn futures trading very active. Volume was around 370,000 on Tuesday and open interest up 12,000 contract, new money still come to corn futures.
USDA estimated corn production at 12.921 billion bushels was down 97 million bushels from Oct esimate and 74 million down from trade estimate average at 12.995 billion. But corn supply side was not stable due to lateness in harvest and maturity level in some of the major corn states.
The USDA's report yesterday also showed that world ending stocks in corn stand at only 16.5% of projected usage at the end of the year. This is the third lowest in the past 34 years.
Technical analysis for corn (Dec9); Daily corn chart show bullish trend in both minor and major trend. Stochastic, MACD and RSI was uptrend. Moving average is bullish. With outside market supportive. USD index was bearish , dollar still used for carry trade due to interest rate still low in US that force investor looking for high return asset. I think money will flow in to commodity and corn price should continue up today, next resistance is 400 cent.

CBOT Soybean pre open , Nov 11,2009

2009-11-11T05:51:00.000-08:00

Soybean

Soybean (Jan10) was up 6.25 cent for overnight market, USD Index made new low, EU equity open higher, crude oil up but palm oil down 0.4%.
USDA report was bearish for soybean, the average yield was raised to 43.3 bu/acre and production was raised to 3.319 billion bushels from Oct estimated of 3.250 billion which average estimated range at 3.15-3.79.

USDA forecast world ending stock increase to 250.23 million tonnes from high production in US, Brazil and Argentina. USDA increase Argentina production to 53 million tonnes from higher planting area more than last oil world estimated at 50 million tonnes which they concern on drought.
Dry areas in Argentina would have a little rain in next week. Give some hope for soybean plantation. Rain expected to be very light and isolated of much in Cordoba, southern Santiago del Estero, central Santa Fe, Southwestern Buenos Aires and La Pampa.
Technical for Soybean (Jan10), Soybean prices had strength support at 953 cent, the reverse pattern occur in soybean daily chart, Slow stochastic indicated buying signal but moving average indicator and RSI was neutral. Today price could up from outside market supportive minor trend is bullish but major trend still bearish pressure from fundamental. I think in short term price may not lower than 950 but in other way, soybean price will not break next major resistance at 1,023 cent . Today next resistance is 983 cent and next psychological resistance is 1,000 cent.

China commodity data, Nov 11,2009

2009-11-11T05:16:00.000-08:00

Today, There are many commodity data release from China , I summarize in the detail bellow.

China's crude oil import in October rose 19.7% (year on year) to 19.34 million tonnes or 4.55 million barrel per day up from September at 4.19 million barrel per day.
China's coal export in October up 1% from last month to 2.05 million tonnes. The export will steady in next two month, demand from Japan and Korea has improve but not increase sharply.
China's crude steel and iron ore output in October down from record in September. The monthly basis, crude steel output up 2% from September to 51.75 million tonnes but in daily basis, Oct output was 1.67 million tonnes/day down 1.2% from Sept at 1.69 million.
Cnina's power generation in Oct up 17.1% (year on year)
China's refinery crude oil increase 10.4% from last year to 33.29 million tonnes or 7.84 million barrels per day and up from Sept at 32.83 million tonnes or 7.84 million barrels per day.
China refined copper up 1.1% on the month to 399,300 tonnes in Oct.
China's aluminum production in October, up 4.4 % from last month and up 17.1% year on year to 1.26 million tonnes from opened new capacity on firm prices.

USDA Crop Production

2009-11-10T07:11:00.000-08:00

USDA forecast soybean production at 3.319 billion bushels, up 2% from Oct forecast and up 12% from last year that's above trade expectation of 3.269 billion bushels , average yield are 43.3 bu/acre. , increase 0.9 bushel from Oct estimated and up 3.6 bushels from 2008.

Corn production forecast at 12.921 billion bushels, down 1 % from Oct estimated at 12.995 billion but increase 7% from 2008. , yields are expected to 162.9 bu/acre down 1.3 bushels from Oct estimated at 163.7 bu/acre.

Soybean and Corn production are record crop.

The world soybean production rise 4 million tonnes to 250.23 tonnes with increase from US up 2 million, Brazil up 1 million to 63 million tonnes and Argentina up 1 million to 53 million tonnes.

Soybean production still bearish for Soybean prices.

CBOT : Soybean Outlook Nov 9-13,2009

2009-11-09T05:19:00.000-08:00

Last week CBOT soybean prices had pressure from expansion of US harvest. Soybean harvest pick up significantly to 51% at Nov 1 reported by USDA and expected increase to 70-75% in this week. Tomorrow(Nov 10) USDA will release US crop production and world supply& demand (link to report here) , soybean production expected to be a largest on the record. The average analysis estimated was 3.292 billion bushels from USDA's October forecast at 3.250 billion bushels.

There's not only US will get a big soybean crop, Brazil's soybean production will be a record too. CONAB (the Brazil National Supply Crop.) was estimated Brazil soybean crop at 62.5-63.6 million tonnes, compared with the range of 62.26 - 63.27 million estimated in October. Brazilian's farmers shift area to soybean planting because of attractive international prices and lower production cost and they rush to plant early soy crop for early harvest on Jan to Feb 2010, target to receive high premium. Planting area for Brazil's soybean was estimated range at 22.35-22.75 million hectares, up from 21.73 million last year. The Brazil's weather forecasts show above average rains which will benefit for soybean production.

CONAB said "Weather forecasts for the next three month show above average rains which will benefit crops"
picture from Qtweather

Oil world said "With favorable weather, the total Brazil soybean crop could exceed the last CONAB estimated by around 1 million tones."

The US and World production are a bearish factor as same as good US harvest. but there is some bullish factor that would support soybean price in this week due to the following factors.

The US export soybean will increasing sharply after Nov because some shipment were delay from Oct to Nov due to lack of soybean. But in Nov , harvest will develop and soybean coming out to serve export demand. Last week US soybean export inspection in weekend of Oct 29 were increase to 63.7 million tonnes with 40.1 million bushels to China and cumulative shipment from Sept 1 were 218 million bushels( up 11% yoy). China still biggest buyer of US soybean.

Decline of Argentina soybean production, In Argentina the drought has effected 12-15 million hectares of agriculture production. Rainfall during Oct was below normal in major Argentina soybean growing area, the Buenos Aires was 53% below normal, Cordoba 31%, Santa Fe 50%, Entre Rios 73% and La Pampa 16%. Dryness condition lead to delayed planting, as of Nov 4 Argentina soybean planting was only 12% compared with 30% in 2008 and 32% in 2007 (same time).

Oil world said " Unless the moisture situation improves noticeably in the next two weeks, Argentina soybean plantings and production will fall short of earlier expectations." Oilworld expectation 50 million tonnes and USDA expected 52 million tonnes in Oct estimated.

picture from Qtweather

The another bullish factor is Outside market support from weakness dollar, higher crude oil and gold prices. Major trend of USD index was bearish. The US unemployment rate is surprisingly high at 10.2% that keep FED rate steady at 0-0.25% for an extend period. Investor will looking for higher return and pour money to commodity. Oil and gold would keep rallies from money flow and also that money will flow in to CBOT grain.This week soybean, corn and wheat have support from weaker dollar and fund buying.

Wet harvest advancing, yields looking good

2009-11-06T23:40:00.001-08:00

With grain dryers running nonstop across the state, harvest proceeded in force this week as several dry days finally appeared.

The most recent Iowa Crops and Weather report released by the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service revealed corn harvest for grain had reached an 18 percent completion rating, which was 22 percent behind last year and five days behind the five-year average. The moisture content for all corn in the field was estimated at 26 percent, or 7 percentage points higher than the five-year average.

While the moisture content of corn harvested was estimated at 23 percent in the report, Iowa's corn crop condition rating had increased to 82 percent good to excellent by Sunday, with yields looking like they may approach the 186 per bushel record yield forecast set by the USDA.

Soybeans harvested had reached the 54 percent completion level, which was 38 percent behind last year and 26 days behind the five-year average. The crop's condition was rated as 16 percent being excellent, 53 percent good, 21 percent fair, 7 percent poor and 3 percent very poor......Full article here

The Weekly Gold Digger

2009-11-06T23:33:00.000-08:00

The US Dollar showed some weakness this week after the IMF (International Monetary Fund) had sold 200 tonnes of Gold to the Reserve Bank of India for 6.7 billion. This development along with the thought that other countries may follow suit and purchase additional reserves of Gold to fill their Gold reserve ratios. It was previously thought that the level that these countries wanted to buy the metal would be in the $1020.00 to $1030.00 area. This re-established the floor to approximately $1050.00. These markets are also responding to the play by play of our economic recovery. The relationship between the US Dollar and the Gold Market temporarily waned on Tuesday due to the purchase. We will be gaging the economic recovery on a variety of factors and the affect on the US Dollar. In this case, I still believe that in the long term, we shall see the US Dollar drift lower.......Full article here

Wheat lacking fundamental supports as stocks remain large

2009-11-06T23:20:00.000-08:00

Wheat

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.53 1/2 lower; Kansas City wheat $.50 1/2 lower and Minneapolis wheat $.48 lower. Wheat values should slide quickly as there is no fundamental support for these prices. U.S. and world ending stocks remain huge and current usage is slow, leaving the stocks at a large level......

Full article here

Technical for Trading Friday Nov 6, 2009

2009-11-06T03:46:00.000-08:00

Technical by chococommodity

CBOT-Soybean(Jan10) Soybean prices has down from high 1,022 cent , not enough money flow to break resistance 1,017 cent just touch and goes down. The major trend is down pressure from fundamental, huge US crop, good weather for harvest , Brazil crop estimated at 62.5-63.5 million by CONAB more than USDA at 62 million tonnes, trader eye on USDA supply and demand release on next Tuesday. From 30 min chart (price was 979 while I wrote blog in Asia trade) after slow stochastic indicated selling signal at 985 cent prices was trading below moving average 10,20,30 bearish in moving average indicator. Slow stochastic is down trend. MACD seem to be reverse and RSI is neutral with downtrend. Intraday trend is mixed. Daily chart is also bearish in MACD and Slow stochastic indicator. Price will open lower . The support level is 973-967 and trading range is 967-990 cent.

CBOT-Corn(Dec09) Corn price down after cannot break resistance at 412 cent and price could not hold at 386 cent of 200 day moving average , Daily chart pattern show minor reverse from up to down trend, Slow stochastic has selling signal and down trend, MACD is down trend but RSI is neutral. Their is bearish in daily chart. Addition analysis with 30 min chart, It shown buying singnal in MACD, Stochastic and RSI is neutral. Price pattern is side way steady around 375 cent. The 30 min corn's chart indicated a reversal at 375 cent. Today corn price will be lower. Down side support 373-370 and 365 cent and trading rage is 370-385 cent.

CBOT-Wheat(Dec09) Stochastic indicator in daily chart shown sell signal at 513 cent level. MACD is down trend but RSI is neutral. Moving average indicator has a minor selling signal, wheat price will reverse to down trend. From 30 min chart, price pattern is side way at 512 cent , Stochastic, RSI and MACD is neutral. In Asia trade wheat price can hold at 513 cent.Today wheat price will open lower . The support is 510-513 cent and trading range is 510-520.

Add with trend for futures trading, present by www.patterntrapper.com

The Trend for trading on Thursday, 6 Nov indicated corn, soybean, soy meal and wheat futures is bearish with selling signal but soy oil is neutral with minor selling signal. USD index is bearish. Crude oil and Gold price still bullish.

Presented by www.PatternTrapper.com					Minor Trend	Major Trend	Trend Reading
INDICES	Close	Change	3x1	7x5

S&P 500 - Dec ESZ9	1063.25	+ 16.25	1048.81	1050.33	Bullish
Dow Jones - Dec YMZ9	9954	+ 169	9808	9774	Bullish
Nasdaq - Dec NQZ9	1719.25	+ 32.50	1690.08	1700.92	Bullish
Russell - Dec TFZ9	578.60	+ 14.50	568.42	576.53	Bullish

CURRENCIES

US Dollar Index - Dec DXZ9	75.865	+ 0.040	76.227	76.183	Bearish
Australian Dollar - Dec ADZ9	0.9063	− 0.0005	0.9020	0.9033	Bullish
British Pound - Dec BPZ9	1.6577	+ 0.0021	1.6486	1.6434	Bullish
Canadian Dollar - Dec CDZ9	0.9387	− 0.0024	0.9374	0.9320	Bullish
EuroFX - Dec ECZ9	1.4872	+ 0.0010	1.4803	1.4819	Bullish
Japanese Yen - Dec JYZ9	1.1025	+ 0.0003	1.1052	1.1020	Neutral
Swiss Franc - Dec SFZ9	0.9844	+ 0.0002	0.9804	0.9807	Bullish

ENERGY

Crude Oil - Dec CLZ9	79.62	− 0.78	79.55	78.48	Bullish
Heating Oil - Dec HOZ9	2.0576	− 0.0326	2.0668	2.0494	Neutral
Natural Gas - Dec NGZ9	4.782	+ 0.057	4.820	5.148	Bearish

GRAINS

Corn - Dec CZ9	376^4	− 7^4	385^2	376^6	Bearish
Wheat - Dec WZ9	512^2	− 8^6	515^4	513^4	Bearish
Soybeans - Jan SF0	972^0	− 27^0	997^0	984^6	Bearish
Soybean Meal - Dec SMZ9	291.3	− 10.3	301.3	295.4	Bearish
Soybean Oil - Dec BOZ9	37.18	− 0.37	37.41	36.99	Neutral

Allendale Early Calls: Larger Corn Production Expected, Many Areas Not Moving Cattle Numbers

2009-11-05T07:02:00.000-08:00

Grain Market Influences:

Weekly export sales are viewed as bearish wheat but neutral corn, soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil.

Harvest activity for this week should be the largest one week advancement of the year. Farmers are also telling us corn is drying down quickly now.

Corn summary… This morning showed a classic pattern by the funds that we have seen many times in the past. After a couple days of buying they often come in and buy some “clean up” orders before going to the sideline.

Three of four firms that have released crop estimates look for larger corn production. This also includes Allendale. USDA will give its take on Tuesday.

China purchased 6,000 tonnes of Thailand corn. This is not too surprising. Thailand has been trying to sell government stocks. This order was for quick delivery to a feed mill.

Soybean summary… It was an impressive start over 10 higher this morning. Like corn, it turned out to be some clean up buying. If that is the case we expect some steady drifting lower in the near future. Just imagine if we start trading the fundamentals.

Brazil’s government upped its estimate of the 2009/10 soybean production from a range of 62.26 - 63.27 million metric tonnes to a range of 62.50 – 63.6 mmt.

All four firms, including Allendale, that have released crop estimates look for larger soybean production. USDA will give its take on Tuesday.

Wheat summary… There is one market that still is attempting to follow the relationship to the dollar and this would be it. We now have a great head and shoulders top in which we will like to sell from if 487 or so is taken out. This is the only market we may need to watch outside markets for in the next few days.

Egypt may announce who will supply its tender for 55,000 to 60,000 tonnes of wheat later this morning. Also, keep in mind yesterday’s story that indicated they will start sending agricultural quarantine officials to inspect imported wheat at ports of origin starting with its next purchase.

Japan seeks 35,100 tonnes of food wheat in its regular tender. .....Full article here.....

Indonesia's Soybean Farmers to Raise Output by 35% Next Year, Ministry Says

2009-11-05T06:51:00.000-08:00

As prices for soybeans recover from last year’s lows, Indonesian farmers are expected to lift their output 35 percent next year to 1.3 million tons, leading to a fall in imports, the Agriculture Ministry said on Thursday. This year’s harvest is projected to yield 966,000 tons.

“We plan to reduce the import volume of soybeans year-on-year by increasing productivity and adding planting land,” said Muchlizar Murkan, director of beans and tuber vegetables the Agriculture Ministry.

He said yields would rise 12 percent per hectare next year by using high-quality seeds, along with farmers expanding their area under cultivation by 20 percent to 874,000 hectares from 728,000 hectares currently....Full article here....

Brazil Raises Soybean Forecast as Rain Aids Crops

2009-11-05T06:43:00.000-08:00

Soybean farmers in Brazil, the world’s second-largest grower, may produce more of the oilseed next year than previously forecast after rainfall in recent months helped crops, the Agriculture Ministry said.

Farmers will produce between 62.5 million metric tons and 63.6 million tons of soybeans next year, up from an October estimate of 62.3 million to 63.3 million tons, the ministry’s Conab crop-forecasting agency said today in an e-mailed report. Production will rise from 57.1 million this year........Full article here..

Trend for trading Nov 5,2009

2009-11-05T05:01:00.000-08:00

The Trend for trading on Thursday, 5 Nov indicated

Corn, Soybean and Soymeal futures is Neutral with minor selling singnal.But soyoil still bullish with buying singnal. Wheat are bullish with buying signal. Down jones is bullish but S&P 500 and Nasdaq are Neutral with minor selling singnal. USD index is bearish with selling singnal. Other wise Crude oil is bullish .

					Minor Trend	Major Trend	Trend Reading
INDICES	Close	Change	3x1	7x5

S&P 500 - Dec ESZ9	1047.00	+ 5.25	1041.89	1050.33	Neutral
Dow Jones - Dec YMZ9	9785	+ 68	9744	9774	Bullish
Nasdaq - Dec NQZ9	1686.75	+ 11.25	1675.61	1700.92	Neutral
Russell - Dec TFZ9	564.10	− 3.80	563.78	576.53	Neutral

CURRENCIES

US Dollar Index - Dec DXZ9	75.825	− 0.745	76.387	76.183	Bearish
Australian Dollar - Dec ADZ9	0.9068	+ 0.0080	0.9004	0.9033	Bullish
British Pound - Dec BPZ9	1.6556	+ 0.0121	1.6433	1.6434	Bullish
Canadian Dollar - Dec CDZ9	0.9411	+ 0.0029	0.9335	0.9320	Bullish
EuroFX - Dec ECZ9	1.4862	+ 0.0138	1.4771	1.4819	Bullish
Japanese Yen - Dec JYZ9	1.1022	− 0.0052	1.1069	1.1020	Neutral
Swiss Franc - Dec SFZ9	0.9842	+ 0.0091	0.9786	0.9807	Bullish

GRAINS

Corn - Dec CZ9	384^0	− 6^0	384^4	376^6	Neutral
Wheat - Dec WZ9	521^0	+ 5^2	514^2	513^4	Bullish
Soybeans - Jan SF0	999^0	− 11^4	1001^2	984^6	Neutral
Soybean Meal - Dec SMZ9	301.6	− 4.8	303.9	295.4	Neutral
Soybean Oil - Dec BOZ9	37.55	+ 0.02	37.21	36.99	Bullish

ENERGY

Crude Oil - Dec CLZ9	80.40	+ 0.80	78.87	78.48	Bullish
Heating Oil - Dec HOZ9	2.0902	+ 0.0169	2.0555	2.0494	Bullish
Natural Gas - Dec NGZ9	4.725	− 0.197	4.866	5.148	Bearish

The trend trader for futures , present by www.patterntrapper.com which use pivot point analysis to entered and exit position. This tool should be used with other technical indicator to optimize your trading.

Addition with Technical Analysis

CBOT Corn (Dec09) - Yesterday corn futures disappointing finished. Price go up to reach 4 $ but cannot break this level trader start short at this point from 30 min chart shown bearish in MACD. In 30 min chart trend is down price break moving average 385 cent in overnight market and hold at 384 (in Asia trade when i wrote this article) next support is 382, 377 and 370. RSI and Stochastic is neutral but slope is down trend. Price will open steady or little weaker today. You can see selling when prices moving around 400 cent that limited upside but down side corn futures may not lower than 370 cent.

CBOT Soybean (Jan10) - 30 min chart of soybean shown bearish signal after reach 1,000 cent . Price break support at 996 cent (in Asia trade while I write this article), next support is 989 and 966. MACD is oversold but does not has a revesal. RSI is low at 38.057 but not oversold. Fast stochastic downtrend and have a bit sing of reversal. I think to day soybean prices will open lower. But I my view if soybean price moving around 980-985 cent may have some trader bet for short term speculation.

CBOT Wheat(Dec09) - Price trend is down. Stochastic , RSI and MACD is down trend and bearish. I think wheat technical factor is weak compare with soybean and corn. Price may open lower , support downside is 507 and 480.

USDA says food prices to increase next year

2009-11-04T09:16:00.000-08:00

By the end of next year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects food prices to increase by as much has four percent.

Some economists think prices could climb as high as five percent, according to an article on DailyFinance.com. The price for eggs is forecast to rise three percent, and beef prices will jump two percent. Lamb and seafood are expected to see a five-percent rise.

Over a year, a four-percent increase on grocery prices can add up. The consumer who spends $150 a week on groceries will be paying an extra $500 over the entire year.

Economists say meat and dairy will see the steepest price increases at the consumer level.

The reason, according to food giant ConAgra former chief economist Bill Lapp, is pork, beef, chicken and dairy producers are all losing money. As they reduce supplies, that will cause prices to rise......Full text here

Grain Market Analysis Wednesday, November 04, 2009

2009-11-04T09:08:00.001-08:00

December corn futures closed up 7 1/4 cents at $3.89 1/2 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday. The bulls have regained upside technical momentum this week to suggest the uptrend can be restarted. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above major psychological resistance at $4.00 a bushel. The next downside price objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at this week's low of $3.59 1/4 a bushel. First resistance for December corn is seen at yesterday's high of $3.96 1/2 and then at $4.00. First support is seen at $3.84 and then at $3.80.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

January soybeans closed up 14 cents at $10.12 a bushel yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high again yesterday. The bean market bulls this week have regained upside technical momentum to suggest the uptrend can be restarted. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is pushing and closing January prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $10.29 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $9.62 a bushel. First resistance for January soybeans is seen at yesterday's high of $10.21 and then at $10.29 1/4. First support is seen at $10.00 and then at yesterday's low of $9.87 1/4.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

December Chicago SRW wheat closed down 1 cent at $5.15 3/4 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday. Bulls still have the slight near-term technical advantage. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.80. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close December futures prices above solid technical resistance at $5.29 a bushel. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $5.20 3/4 and then at $5.25. First support lies at yesterday's low of $5.04 3/4 and then at $5.00.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5......Full article here

Harvest continues to be slowed by rain, snow

2009-11-04T09:03:00.000-08:00

GRAND FORKS — Farmers made little if any progress in harvesting crops the past week in eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota as rainy, muddy and cold conditions continued to foil field operations.Water can be seen standing in farm fields in the southern end of the Red River Valley, which has gotten more rain — up to 5 inches — the past month than the northern end.The National Weather Service put out flood watches in the southern end of the valley last week as steady rains on already saturated fields meant the new water mostly drained quickly into ditches, streams and rivers.There’s more and more doubt if all the beans and flax will get harvested before winter sets in, farmers and county extension agents say. Corn and sunflowers usually can make it through winter, if necessary.Minnesota farmers got in only two days of field work last week, and North Dakota farmers only three days, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly crop progress report.It’s the fifth-consecutive week farmers have gotten less than 3.5 days for field work......Full article here

Ray Grabanski: The harvest from hades

2009-11-04T08:53:00.000-08:00

This year's harvest has been an extremely trying time for corn and soybean producers who have struggled through perhaps the worst October ever for harvesting grain. As we enter November, only 25% of the corn and 51% of the soybeans are harvested - woefully behind the normal pace of 71% corn and 87% soybeans. This could be a disaster in waiting, and the market is starting to treat this serious threat to the 2009 crop with more and more price premium as time clicks on. The one thing that can seal the nail in this coffin is an early arrival of winter, effectively socking in a good share of the 2009 crop in the fields.

Soybeans could be more devastating than corn in this regard, as snow would shatter soybeans certainly more easily than causing losses in corn. But even corn could be affected, as corn needs time to dry down and also to get picked and dried in grain dryers. We already are getting well behind normal so that drying needs to occur at cooler temps in November instead of October - slowing the whole process down. The seriousness is even more evident when you consider that problem areas will take a while to dry down soils before being able to tackle the harvest. The time needed to do that will be frustratingly long, as the whole process of drying out soils takes longer in November under cooler conditions and shorter days than in September or October....Full article here

Grain volatility to stay high in 2010-NAEGA Martin

2009-11-04T08:43:00.001-08:00

NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) - Prices of agricultural commodities will remain volatile in 2010 due to supply constraints, volatile shipping costs and a constant demand pull from new demand sources like biofuels, North American Export Grain Association President and CEO Gary Martin said on Tuesday.

"In the last three years, volatility in this industry has increased and it's likely to stay at this new plateau of volatility," Martin said on the sidelines of the Global Soybean and Grain Transport conference.

Rising demand for raw materials from developing countries, most notably China, helped to drive grain and soybean prices to record highs last year. Prices retreated in 2009 amid the global economic slump but have since recovered somewhat......Full article here....

Argentina soybean crop has decrease from dry condition

2009-11-03T06:56:00.000-08:00

The Argentina crop production may decrease from dry condition in several part of the country. The area of the northern states of Chaco and Santiago del Estero, northern Santa Fe, Cordobar, San Luis , La Pampa and several part of Buenos Aires recived rainfall below narmal. Average rain fall 1-27 Oct,2009 in La Pampa was 16% of normal, Santa Fe was 50% of normal, 31% in Cordoba, 53% in Buenos Aires and 65% in Entre Rios. Soybean planting are delayed and other problem in Argentina was shortage of high quality, certified soybean seed varieties from drought condition last year. Argentina soybean product possible come out at 45-50 million tonnes said from oilworld lower than USDA estimated at 52 million tonnes, while planting area increase to 19-19.4 Mn ha.

pictures from QTweather.com

Brazil soybean crop prospect has improved.

2009-11-03T06:39:00.000-08:00

Brazil soybean planting condition is excellent from favorable rain fall in most of the country. Brazilian Farmer rush planting in Mato Grosso and elsewhere to speed up early planting target to get early harvest and receive high premiums paid in Jan-Feb shipment. USDA estimated Brazil soybean output at 62 million tonnes , Oilworld rised crop estimated to 63 millions due to good weather condition. The planting area is 22.5 ha from 21.8 last year.

pictures from QTweather.com

Trend For Trading On Tuesday , November 3, 2009

2009-11-03T05:42:00.000-08:00

The trend trader for futures , present by www.patterntrapper.com which use pivot point analysis to entered and exit position. This tool should be used with other technical indicator to optimize your trading.

The Trend for trading on Tuesday, 3 Nov indicated Corn, Soybean, Wheat and Soymeal are bullish with strong buying signal. The confusion occurs on USD index is bullish and crude oil and soybean oil are bearish with selling signal. Gold is bullish too.

The aditional analysis with chart technical , soybean price hold support at 991 on 30 min chart , Fast stochastic has buying signal but RSI and MACD is neatral. Price has probability to goes up from strong technical and fundamental of soybean. But out side market bear sentiment from lower crude oil prices in Asia trade and Open lower in Euro equity will put pressure on CBOT Grain prices.

Corn, prices increase so quickly but indicator RSI and MACD are neutral that could seen profit taking on corn to day. The first downside support is 379-370.

Wheat, The indicator of wheat price are neatral in MACD, RSI and stochastic. Price may open lower from taking profit today.

Bullish signal in USD index pressure on commodity prices.

Presented by www.PatternTrapper.com					Minor Trend	Major Trend	Trend Reading
INDICES	Close	Change	3x1	7x5

S&P 500 - Dec ESZ9	1039.00	+ 6.00	1045.44	1050.33	Bearish
Dow Jones - Dec YMZ9	9735	+ 71	9773	9774	Bearish
Nasdaq - Dec NQZ9	1669.00	+ 3.50	1683.50	1700.92	Bearish
Russell - Dec TFZ9	561.40	− 0.40	567.08	576.53	Bearish

INTEREST RATES

US T-Bond - Dec USZ9	119-26	− 0-10	119-18	119-12			Bullish
US T-Note - Dec TYZ9	118-16	− 0-04	118-08	118-02			Bullish

CURRENCIES

US Dollar Index - Dec DXZ9	76.460	− 0.015	76.372	76.183	Bullish
Australian Dollar - Dec ADZ9	0.9003	+ 0.0041	0.9023	0.9033	Bearish
British Pound - Dec BPZ9	1.6402	− 0.0052	1.6457	1.6434	Bearish
Canadian Dollar - Dec CDZ9	0.9283	+ 0.0062	0.9295	0.9320	Bearish
EuroFX - Dec ECZ9	1.4771	+ 0.0057	1.4772	1.4819	Bearish
Japanese Yen - Dec JYZ9	1.1090	− 0.0011	1.1043	1.1020	Bullish
Swiss Franc - Dec SFZ9	0.9790	+ 0.0045	0.9786	0.9807	Neutral

LIVESTOCK

Feeder Cattle - Jan FCF0	95.575	+ 0.500	95.353	95.458	Bullish
Live Cattle - Dec LCZ9	86.225	+ 0.550	86.125	86.208	Bullish
Lean Hogs - Dec LHZ9	57.725	+ 1.025	57.128	55.717	Bullish
Pork Bellies - Feb PBG0	89.300	0.000	89.658	88.933	Neutral

GRAINS

Corn - Dec CZ9	382^2	+ 16^2	374^4	376^6	Bullish
Wheat - Dec WZ9	516^6	+ 22^4	504^2	513^4	Bullish
Soybeans - Jan SF0	998^0	+ 21^4	984^4	984^6	Bullish
Soybean Meal - Dec SMZ9	302.7	+ 5.7	297.6	295.4	Bullish
Soybean Oil - Dec BOZ9	36.79	+ 0.39	36.88	36.99	Bearish

ENERGY

Crude Oil - Dec CLZ9	78.13	+ 1.13	78.31	78.48	Bearish
Heating Oil - Dec HOZ9	2.0460	+ 0.0408	2.0426	2.0494	Neutral
Natural Gas - Dec NGZ9	4.824	− 0.221	5.017	5.148	Bearish

METALS

Gold - Dec GCZ9	1054.0	+ 13.6	1045.2	1042.7	Bullish
Silver - Dec SIZ9	16.440	+ 0.185	16.454	16.725	Bearish
Copper - Dec HGZ9	2.9450	− 0.0105	2.9766	2.9808	Bearish

FOODS & FIBER

Orange Juice - Jan OJF0	111.30	− 4.50	115.34	115.95	Bearish
Sugar - Mar SBH0	23.44	+ 0.63	22.82	22.77	Bullish
Cocoa - Dec CCZ9	3250	− 47	3304	3322	Bearish
Coffee - Dec KCZ9	142.35	+ 6.85	137.34	135.88	Bullish
Cotton - Dec CTZ9	67.64	0.00	67.60	67.44	Bullish

USDA Grain Inspection Nov2,2009

2009-11-02T09:47:00.000-08:00


               GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
                           - 1,000 BUSHELS -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                      CURRENT      PREVIOUS
              ------------ WEEK ENDING -----------  MARKET YEAR   MARKET YEAR
GRAIN           10/29/09      10/22/09      10/30/08    TO DATE       TO DATE

WHEAT            11,933        14,439        14,168       360,482       538,887
RYE                   0             0             0             0             0
OATS                  0             3            16            60           285
BARLEY               20            28           224           866         8,306
FLAXSEED              0             0             0           333           212
CORN             23,367        25,523        23,168       295,064       278,129
SORGHUM             536         2,886         2,436        24,280        33,190
SOYBEANS         63,675        49,183        51,490       218,436       196,408
SUNFLOWER             0             0             0             0             0

TOTAL            99,531        92,062        91,502       899,521     1,055,417
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER

link to USDA
SEEDS.

Harvest Progress in Central Missouri

2009-11-02T09:26:00.000-08:00

Sarah Schafer, Agweb crop online editor, Report soybean harvest was finally moving in Central Missouri

Commodities Market Impact Weather: Mostly Drier Central U.S.

2009-11-02T09:15:00.001-08:00

Mostly drier central U.S. conditions, showers in the 10-day time frame, favorable trends for winter-wheat planting, improved field-work conditions in Brazil, a hot spell for Argentina, generally favorable in China crop areas, and periods of showers this week in Europe are the main weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.......Link to full article

U.S. Weather Forecast, Next week is clear

2009-10-31T19:38:00.000-07:00

The Accuweather report on Oct 31,2009...Show the clear sky in soybean and corn plant next week harvest will develop but we would keep follow up yield and bean quality...

The Rain Keeps Falling on the Beans

2009-10-31T19:10:00.000-07:00

Pam Smith : Seeds and production Editor, Wet wet wet in soybean plant area in Central Illinois. There are a lot of wet bean that possible high damage and moisture bean lead to lower yield than expected in some area.

What are managed Futures....VDO

2009-10-31T11:10:00.000-07:00

Trend For Trading On Monday, November 2, 2009

2009-10-31T07:53:00.000-07:00

The trend trader for futures , present by www.patterntrapper.com which use pivot point analysis to entered and exit position. This tool should be used with other technical indicator to optimize your trading.

The Trend for Trading On Monday, Nov2,2009 indicated soybean, corn and wheat is bearish with selling signal but soy meal contract is bullish with buying singnal.

					Minor Trend	Major Trend	Trend Reading
INDICES	Close	Change	3x1	7x5

S&P 500 - Dec9	1033.00	− 28.50	1047.92	1050.33	Bearish
Dow Jones - Dec9	9664	− 239	9783	9774	Bearish
Nasdaq - Dec9	1665.50	− 42.00	1691.06	1700.92	Bearish
Russell - Dec9	561.80	− 14.70	570.86	576.53	Bearish

GRAINS

Corn - Dec9	366^0	− 13^4	371^4	376^6	Bearish
Wheat - Dec9	494^2	− 9^4	500^4	513^4	Bearish
Soybeans - Jan10	976^4	− 10^4	977^2	984^6	Bearish
Soybean Meal - Dec9	297.0	+ 1.7	293.5	295.4	Bullish
Soybean Oil - Dec9	36.40	− 1.12	36.96	36.99	Bearish

ENERGY

Crude Oil - Dec9	76.99	− 2.88	78.42	78.47	Bearish
Heating Oil - Dec9	2.0120	− 0.0667	2.0456	2.0517	Bearish
Natural Gas - Dec9	5.012	− 0.050	5.093	5.137	Bearish

CURRENCIES

US Dollar Index - Dec9

76.475

+ 0.410

76.361

76.183

Bullish

My comment: Soybean is bearish , with other indicator MACD show bearish divergence , moving average indicator is bear and Stochastic also bearish. Next week soybean price may open lower with downside support 963, 925 and major support 900. USD Index has reverse signal from bullish in trend analysis and MACD has bullish devergence, may USD change direction? That could pressure on commodity next week.

Pivot point Analysis explain by Joseph Skibinski:

Pivot Points offer the trader a method of determining support and resistance for a given time frame. Pivots can be used with any time frame, daily, weekly, monthly, even any intra-day chart. A common technique is to calculate Pivots for a variety of time frames using common levels as a way of developing confidence parameters. There are five basic parameters calculated in Pivot Point Analysis. They are the Pivot (P), 1st Resistance (R1), 2nd Resistance (R2), 1st Support (S1) and 2nd Support (S2).

These levels are used in much the same manner as you would trendline support and resistance levels. Many traders us the Pivot level as a trend indicator. Above P, they only go long. Below P, they only go short. Conversely, you can go long against S1 with your stop loss a few ticks below S2. You can go long above the Pivot or above R2 with an entrty stop. If your long against S! is successful, you can add to the position with a buy stop above the Pivot. Then, you can take partial profits with a limit at R2 and trail your protective stop on the remaining position for the ever elusive "Home Run" trade. The equations can be easily programmed into Excel and are often offered as canned indicators by most charting services. However, it's good to know what they represent. H, L and C represent the previous day's High, Low and Close, respectively. Here's the equations:

R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
R1 = (P x 2) - L
P = (H + L + C) / 3
S1 = (P x 2) - H
S2 = P - (R1 - S1)

Adjusted Pivots

Often a large gap open leaves Pivot numbers calculated on the previous day's actions fairly useless.
Many traders adjust their value for P as follows:

O = Today's Opening Price
P = O + (H + L + C) / 4

Time Less In Thailand....Lonely planet....Nice short VDO

2009-10-30T07:31:00.001-07:00

The full moon party was start around 25 year ago...It just a thank you party for costumers of Paradise Bungalows.The party set up on full moon night which that it have no electricity supply just only white beach , clear sea view and mountain round with moonlight....From the beginning , Just only 20-30 people join the party but now the Full moon party is a big funny party....I like it so much.....In Full moon party we can met people from all around the world, enjoy together....and Drink drank drunk....This Lonely planet VDO let me think about join that party again....Next Full moon day is Nov 2,2009 , Dec 2, 2009 and Dec 31,2009......that be grate time to have a new year party there....

US Dought Monitor

2009-10-29T08:16:00.000-07:00

NOAA's Dought Monitor reported on Oct 27,2009 , For the next 5 days (Oct.28-Nov.1),during the next 5 days (Oct. 28-Nov. 1), a storm system is expected to intensify in the center of the country. Upslope conditions could trigger heavy snowfall across Wyoming and Colorado early in the period. As the system develops, heavy rains are expected from the Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana to Illinois and eastward to New England. Ahead of a system in the Gulf of Alaska, western Washington is expected to be wet. Outside of those areas, little to no drought relief is expected.

The CPC 6-10 day forecast (November 2-6) calls for increased chances of above-median precipitation along the U.S.-Canada border from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes, and below-median precipitation from the Great Basin eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Above-normal temperatures are favored from the Southwest, across the central and southern Plains, to the Southeast while below-normal temperatures are more likely from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains. Colder and drier than normal conditions should prevail in eastern Alaska.

Full reported :USDA

USDA Export Sales, Soybean Oct 29,2009

2009-10-29T08:10:00.000-07:00

This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period Oct. 16-22, 2009.

Soybeans: Net sales of 691,000 MT were down 30% from the previous week and 21% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (437,000 MT, including 110,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 14,500 MT), Taiwan (70,700 MT), Mexico (41,800 MT), unknown destinations (37,500 MT), Egypt (29,700 MT), Japan (21,000 MT), and Cuba (16,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Venezuela (2,400 MT) and Turkey (900 MT). Exports of 1,433,600 MT were up 67% from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (1,018,500 MT) Mexico (149,200 MT), Taiwan (66,600 MT), Egypt (62,700 MT), Saudi Arabia (57,500 MT), and Canada (28,600 MT). Note: Accumulated exports were adjusted down 26,000 MT for Turkey and adjusted up 26,000 MT for Canada.

Soybean Cake and Meal: Net sales of 176,200 MT were up 52% from the previous week. Increases were reported for Mexico (49,400 MT), the Philippines (44,500 MT), Ireland (26,700 MT), New Zealand (26,400 MT, switched from Australia), and Latvia (25,500 MT, switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (75,500 MT). Net sales of 3,200 MT for delivery in 2010/11 were for Mexico (2,900 MT) and Canada (300 MT). Exports of 165,700 MT were double the previous week. The primary destinations were New Zealand (26,400 MT), Latvia (25,500 MT), Australia (24,800 MT), Canada (23,000 MT), and Venezuela (21,500 MT).

Soybean Oil: Net sales of 9,200 MT were down 61% from the previous week. Increases were reported for Peru (19,900 MT, including 10,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and 6,000 MT switched from the Dominican Republic), Morocco (2,000 MT), and Mexico (1,500 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (10,500 MT) and the Dominican Republic (6,000 MT). Exports of 27,600 MT were primarily to Morocco (14,500 MT), Peru (5,000 MT), Jamaica (3,200 MT) and Tunisia (2,000 MT).

Soy bean pre opening chart, Oct 29,2009

2009-10-29T07:22:00.000-07:00

Overnight Soybean was 4.5 higher...Soybean overnight trading was support from outside market and short covering

USD lower
Crude oil (Asia trade) and Malaysia palm oil price gain 1.7% but China soy oil loss 2.5%
From technical view, Candlestick chart has sign of reversal with support at 967 cent. and buy signal from Slow stochastic indicator. But major trend is down from MACD and neutral RSI. Today price may bounce back for short term with upside resistance at 987-1000 cent.
Next downside support is 947 and 906 cent. At that point i would long some beans.
Even if soybean price has pressure from good weather forecast that good for fieldwork next week. But soybean have a fundamental supported from import demand from China still continue buying and shipment will increase when bean coming out from fields. China is committed soybean for Feb shipment already. US crushing margin is positive and better than last year. Finally wet weather make losses in soybean fields (more wet bean in the fields) production may lower than USDA estimated.
But Bearish factor is huge South America crop and China buying may shift to South America after Feb-Mar shipment.

Index funds make up quarter of commods market: John Kemp

2009-10-28T06:00:00.000-07:00

picture from forexmenter

-- John Kemp is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are his own --
LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Positions held by commodity indices are equivalent to about 20-25 percent of all the open interest in major U.S. futures and options contracts, according to quarterly index investment data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Total investment in commodity indices amounted to $117 billion at the end of June 2009. Around $95 billion was invested in components linked to U.S. commodity contracts
(such as NYMEX crude oil or CBOT corn), with $22.5 billion in components linked to overseas contracts (such as ICE Brent or LME copper). The largest investments are in contracts linked to NYMEX crude oil ($30 billion), U.S. natural gas ($9.5 billion), gold ($6.7 billion), and soybeans ($6.4 billion). But the impact is probably greatest in agricultural markets, where despite
relatively small allocations in dollar amounts, index investments account for an unusually high share of the open interest, in some cases approaching half the total.

* http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/ce-insight/COMMODITYINDEX-
SCALE-1.pdf
* http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/ce-insight/COMMODITYINDEX-
SCALE-2.pdf
* http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/ce-insight/CFTC-INDEXINVESTMENTS.
pdf

COMPREHENSIVE POSITION DATA

The data is based on the "special call" the Commission first sent to 43 major commodity market participants as part of its investigation into whether investors were causing the spike in oil and other commodity prices in H1 2008, using its powers under Rule 18.05, which has been ontinued
since then. The special call was addressed to 16 swap dealers known to have significant index business; 14 known commodity index funds, including asset managers and sponsors of exchangetraded funds (ETFs) and notes (ETNs); and 13 swap dealers not known to engage in significant index business but are major market participants. The call covers all commodity index and index-like business, including ETFs and ETNs, whether held through futures and
options positions on exchanges, or over-the-counter swap deals. It is therefore the most comprehensive measure of the sector.

STILL OVER-WEIGHTED TO CRUDE

Commodity indices have traditionally been weighted heavily towards crude oil and refined oil products. The productionweighted Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has a 53 percent
weighting towards crude oil and another 14 percent weighting to crude derivatives. Other indices have smaller weightings. The Dow Jones-AIG index, now renamed the Dow Jones-UBS index , caps the weighting of any related group of commodities (energy, precious metals, livestock or grains) at 33 percent. Crude oil is currently weighted at just 14 percent with another 7 percent for refined products. But all indices remain over-exposed to oil and products, limiting the diversification benefits they are supposed to provide compared with an investment in a single contract, and exposing them to large roll costs whenever the oil market moves into persistent contango. In response, index operators have introduced variants which cap crude exposure at a lower level. Standard and Poor's offers indices that cut crude exposure from 53 percent in the main GSCI to 41 percent (Reduced Energy Index), 28 percent (Light Energy Index) or even 18 percent (Ultra-Light Energy Index), with similar cuts in the exposure to refined products. But while operators have offered an ever-increasing suite of products, the CFTC data suggests
investors have taken only limited advantage, and remain heavily overweight in the commodities most affected. Index investors, including those in single-commodity ETFs and Tens as well as more diversified baskets, held about 26 percent of all their exposure in products linked to the NYMEX WTI contract, and another 8.5 percent in NYMEX gasoline and heating oil. Probably half the remaining exposure in markets outside the United States, on which the CFTC has not offered a detailed breakout, was to ICE Brent and gas oil. If so, total exposure to oil and refined products is more than 40 percent, which is relatively high. Much of this is probably from investments in ETFs such as the U.S. Oil Fund and represents strong interest from retail
investors pursuing a simple, directional strategy linked to flagship energy contracts. Institutional investors are more likely to have opted for baskets, with capped exposure to crude and products, so are more diversified. Nonetheless, the index investor "universe" is still far too
heavily weighted towards crude and products markets, despite the urging of investment banks and others to adopt more sophisticated second and third-generation index strategies.

INDICES DOMINATE CBOT WHEAT

While most index money is allocated to energy contracts, it has a much greater impact on agricultural contracts, where relatively small dollar amounts represent a larger share of
the overall open interest. On average, index investments were equivalent to about 25
percent of the reported on-exchange futures and options open interest in the contracts covered by the CFTC special call. But investments range from just 14 percent of the reported
open interest in WTI, 19 percent in heating oil and 27 percent in gasoline to 34 percent in cotton, 37 percent in live cattle and lean hogs, and a staggering 45 percent in CBOT wheat. Not all these positions were in exchange-traded futures and options; in fact most were probably held in bilateral swap deals. But since the valuation of swaps is determined by on-exchange prices, and swap exposures can be hedged out into the public markets, the two are closely linked.

Expressing index positions as a share of reported onexchange open interest gives some idea of how large and influential they are in relation to the overall market. The concentration of index positions in CBOT wheat is often cited as one of the reasons why futures prices have failed to converge with the spot market on expiry over the past five years; the concentration is certainly exceptionally high, even by the standard of other agricultural futures markets. It may be too much for the available liquidity provided by other market users.

CFTC REVIEWS INDEX EXEMPTIONS

In August, the CFTC revoked exemptions given to two index operators (Deutsche Bank commodity Index Tracking Master Fund, and one unnamed operator) previously allowing
them to exceed normal position limits in wheat, corn and soybeans. The Commission concluded the specific trading strategies employed did not qualify for a bona fide hedge exemption.
It gave no further details but may have concluded the strategies were too "active" to qualify as passive riskmanagement for a commodity index basket, or that the underlying markets were simply too small for the positions being taken. Both positions will now be run down over time to comply with federal position limits. The Commission stated the withdrawal of these two no action letters was "very specific and limited and does not affect any other no-action or regulatory positions … with regard to these entities or other market participants". But if CBOT's wheat convergence problem continues, the Commission may come under pressure to tighten the limits
further to cut the share of index investment from 45 percent to something more in line with other contracts. Position limits on other contracts are also under consideration as part of the CFTC's review of energy markets. But problems are less pressing in energy, because indices account for no more than 27 percent of on-exchange interest (gasoline) and often less (for heating oil and crude). While interest remains at this level, it seems likely the CFTC
will continue to provide fairly generous exemptions for index operators. They will, however, almost certainly face tougher reporting requirements and may be required to separate the management of (passive) index positions (that will continue to receive generous exemptions) from active and proprietary ones (that will not). But if index investments in oil and natural gas start to show explosive growth, as the USO and U.S. Natural Gas fund did earlier this year, the CFTC will almost certainly step in to limit their market share and prevent either excessive concentration or distortions caused during roll periods.

U.S. harvest delays throw crop size into question

2009-10-28T05:52:00.000-07:00

picture from iwebcam

CHICAGO, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Historic harvest delays are forcing U.S. farmers to harvest soybeans and corn with quality problems and undesirably high moisture levels, and the ultimate impact on production is uncertain, analysts said. "We've never had a concurrent bean and corn problem like
this, with late harvest and wet weather. So the trade really doesn't know how to handle it," said Charlie Sernatinger, analyst with Fortis Clearing Americas. "They don't know all the ramifications of what this kind of weather is going to end up doing to the crop, either the quality or possible bushel losses."

source : Reuters

Dreyfus sees commods consolidation, sugar next

2009-10-28T05:41:00.000-07:00

commodity

SAO PAULO, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Volatility in commodity markets tends to boost consolidation in the agriculture sector as firms require more capital and improved risk management,
the executive officer of French giant Louis Dreyfus said Tuesday. Companies in the sector also tend to diversify their portfolio in volatile times as a way to reduce dependence on a single product and limit the impact price fluctuations could have on the company as a whole, said Serge Schoen, also
Dreyfus' chairman of the board. "Volatility of commodities have doubled in 20 years ...
which means more risk and more capital (are needed) to afford this," Schoen said in an interview with international news agencies in Sao Paulo, after announcing the group's takeover of Brazilian sugar and ethanol firm Santelisa Vale.

source : Reuters

US Oct/Mar soymeal exports to hit record-Oil World

2009-10-27T07:13:00.000-07:00

U.S. soymeal exports will surge to record levels in Oct. 2009 to March 2010 as rival South American supplies become scarcer after poor harvests.
Combined soymeal exports from U.S. rivals Argentina and Brazil were forecast by Oil World to fall by over 2 million tonnes on the year in the same period.
Argentina's exports were forecast to fall by about 1.3 million tonnes on the year to 10.06 million and Brazil's by around 0.8 million to 4.51 million tonnes as disappointing soybean crops in early 2009 further reduce exports.
The growing South American shortage meant India was also set to achieve an unexpected rise in exports.......

Full News from Reuters

Brazil Soybean-Planting Forecast Raised by Safras

2009-10-27T07:02:00.000-07:00

The report from Safras said that farmer may grow soybean 22.8 million hectares up from July estimated at 22.6 million hectares.....detail are.....

Brazil, the world’s second-largest producer of soybeans, will plant more of the oilseed than previously forecast, research company Safras & Mercados said.
Soybean growers will plant 22.8 million hectares (56.3 million acres) this year, up from a July estimate of 22.6 million hectares, said Flavio Franca Jr., an analyst at Safras. Farmers planted 21.7 million hectares last year...........read full news from Bloomberg

CBOT News Oct 27,2009

2009-10-27T05:43:00.000-07:00

Morning Comment and News

December corn was 1 cent lower late in the overnight session.

Pre-Opening Corn Market Report for 10/27/2009 (CME group)

The December wheat contract was 3 1/2 cents lower overnight. Outside markets were mixed with the dollar marginally lower late overnight.

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 10/27/2009 (CME group)

January soybeans were unchanged late in the overnight session. Outside markets including the dollar, equities and crude oil were modestly supportive late in the overnight session.

Pre-Opening Soy Complex Market Report for 10/27/2009 (CME group)

Bryce Knorr from Farmfutures...He said corn and soybean should open a bit better but wheat may lower. The detail was in link below.....

Futures try to hold the line against further selling this morning, after sharp declines across the board on Monday. While yesterday’s selling had more to do with the dollar than crop fundamentals, volatile swings continue to be the rule, not the exception...(Farmfutures)

Rain still delayed harvest for US corn and soybean.......

Data showing another week of slow progress in the rain-hampered US corn and soybean harvests, coupled with a slight weakening in the dollar, put a halt to the collapse farm commodity prices.....(Agrimoney)
The latest crop/weather report by the Wisconsin Ag Statistics Service notes that fieldwork, harvesting and winter wheat planting were all delayed by the heavy precipitation during the past week. Across the reporting stations, rainfall ranged from 1.47 inches in Madison to 2.86 inches in La Crosse; and average temperatures ranged from one degree above to two degrees below normal....(Wisconsin Agconnection)
The U.S. corn and soybean harvests continue to plod along, with minimal progress made as of Sunday after another week of soggy Midwest weather....(Commodity News)
October has been a slow month for farmers harvesting the last of their crops. Only 2.4 days last week were fit for field work across North Dakota, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly crop progress reports.....(Agweek)

Good export for US soybean this year....

U.S. soy exports set a record for the third consecutive year with exports of 1.56 billion bushels for the Marketing Year 2009. Whole soybean exports totaled 124 billion bushels and soybean meal exports equaled 318 million bushels. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that exports equaled 55 percent of the soybean crop harvested in fall 2008....(Wisconsin Agconnect)

World Production of Soybean still good position...

Planting progress in Brazil is going in the opposite direction with sources there indicating that up to 20% of the crop has been planted nationally and more than 45% in the biggest soybean-producing state of Mato Grosso. Planting is also in full swing in neighboring Argentina. Conditions are generally favorable in both countries although more rain would be welcome in much of Argentina and in Mato Grosso. (CME group)

Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, aims to be 75 percent self-sufficient in wheat in 10 years, up from 55 percent now, an Egyptian Agriculture Ministry official said on Tuesday....(Wisconsin Agconnection)

USDA Export Inspection Oct 26,2009

2009-10-26T08:53:00.000-07:00

WASHINGTON, DC   Tue   Oct 26, 2009    USDA MARKET NEWS

                GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
                            - 1,000 BUSHELS -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       CURRENT      PREVIOUS
               ------------ WEEK ENDING -----------  MARKET YEAR   MARKET YEAR
GRAIN           10/22/09      10/15/09      10/23/08    TO DATE       TO DATE

WHEAT            14,336        18,857        22,117       348,392       524,719
RYE                   0             0             0             0             0
OATS                  0             0             3            57           269
BARLEY                0             0           224           818         8,082
FLAXSEED              0            23             0           333           212
CORN             23,996        31,448        25,175       270,149       254,961
SORGHUM           2,431         1,871         2,682        23,019        30,754
SOYBEANS         43,778        40,264        46,988       149,340       144,918
SUNFLOWER             0             0             0             0             0

TOTAL            84,541        92,463        97,189       792,108       963,915
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER
SEEDS.

source : USDA