There was a lot of good prospect news indicated that huge demand of soybean from China . This week export inspection reach new high since 1997 at 73.8 million bushels. Accumulation soybean inspections to date is 32.5% of the USDA's projected for this marketing year better than 5 year average of 28.5%. Inspection average required 21.5 million bushels per week to reach the USDA's projection for this year (09/10).
The China's Commerce Ministry has revised their November soybean import to 2.86 million tonnes and December to 2.95 million tonnes that was higher than October import at 2.52 million but lower than trade estimated at 3 - 3.5 million tonnes.
Demand from China still high and it's still a support factor for US soybean price.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Updated Brazil soybean planting 24 Nov 2009
Hi everyone I already come back from my vacation...that's great. I will change direction for my blog to mainly focus on soybean that suitable for me the update blog.
By the way, yesterday USDA reported US soybean harvest at 94% complete compare to 89% week ago and 97% last year. The USDA attache show the Brazil soybean production will become near record 63.6 million tonnes. The benefit from El Nino rain was encourage farmer planting earlier. The Celeres reported Brazilian soybean producers planted 74% of the new crop by the weekend of Nov 20, up from 61% last week.
The state of Mato Grosso is the first state to plant which already plant 98% of its expected crop last week up from 87% from week ago and 88% last year.
The area of Goias and Mato Grosso de sul, No4 and 5 soybean producer state had planted 94% of new crop, up from 82% last week and 86% last year.
In Parana area had planted 83% of expected crop, up from 72% week ago and 78% year ago.
The third soy state Rio Grande do sul had planted 38%, up from 25% last week and 40% last year.
From early planting Brazil soybean will start harvest in late December to January in Mato Grosso and goes down in the South in May.
By the way, yesterday USDA reported US soybean harvest at 94% complete compare to 89% week ago and 97% last year. The USDA attache show the Brazil soybean production will become near record 63.6 million tonnes. The benefit from El Nino rain was encourage farmer planting earlier. The Celeres reported Brazilian soybean producers planted 74% of the new crop by the weekend of Nov 20, up from 61% last week.
The state of Mato Grosso is the first state to plant which already plant 98% of its expected crop last week up from 87% from week ago and 88% last year.
The area of Goias and Mato Grosso de sul, No4 and 5 soybean producer state had planted 94% of new crop, up from 82% last week and 86% last year.
In Parana area had planted 83% of expected crop, up from 72% week ago and 78% year ago.
The third soy state Rio Grande do sul had planted 38%, up from 25% last week and 40% last year.
From early planting Brazil soybean will start harvest in late December to January in Mato Grosso and goes down in the South in May.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Exports of Malaysian palm oil rose 21.3%
Export of Malaysian plam oil for Nov 1-15 was 717,936 tonnes increase 21.3% from 591,791 tonnes last month. The SGS reported export palm products in detail below;
Unit: tonnes
Nov 1-15 Oct 1-15
Crude palm oil 155,073 89,670
RBD palm oil 79,931 77,825
RBD palm olein 286,847 263,614
RBD palm stearin 70,660 46,205
Crude palm kernel oil 16,500 7,600
Processed palm kernel oil 24,530 22,547
Oleochemicals 30,136 16,940
Export Malaysian Palm product by country
Nov 1-15 Oct 1-15
China 199,890 140,331
EU 165,791 120,040
Pakistan 55,000 48,800
USA 12,290 26,702
India 72,700 49,210
Unit: tonnes
Nov 1-15 Oct 1-15
Crude palm oil 155,073 89,670
RBD palm oil 79,931 77,825
RBD palm olein 286,847 263,614
RBD palm stearin 70,660 46,205
Crude palm kernel oil 16,500 7,600
Processed palm kernel oil 24,530 22,547
Oleochemicals 30,136 16,940
Export Malaysian Palm product by country
Nov 1-15 Oct 1-15
China 199,890 140,331
EU 165,791 120,040
Pakistan 55,000 48,800
USA 12,290 26,702
India 72,700 49,210
USDA Grain inspection weekend of Nov 12,2009
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
- 1,000 BUSHELS -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CURRENT PREVIOUS
------------ WEEK ENDING ----------- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 11/12/09 11/05/09 11/13/08 TO DATE TO DATE
WHEAT 15,047 17,778 18,367 393,369 570,276
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 3 11 63 299
BARLEY 0 20 60 894 8,488
FLAXSEED 0 0 1 383 213
CORN 21,937 27,766 30,402 347,586 335,803
SORGHUM 4,005 4,595 2,372 34,277 37,149
SOYBEANS 59,845 64,037 42,450 347,548 274,926
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 100,834 114,199 93,663 1,124,120 1,227,154
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWERSEEDS.
Full reported here
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
CBOT Corn pre open, Nov 11,2009
Corn
- Overnight corn (Dec9) was up 2.5 cent, USD index lower ,Eu+Asia equity higher and crude oil still high...Outside market factor was support corn prices.
- Corn futures trading very active. Volume was around 370,000 on Tuesday and open interest up 12,000 contract, new money still come to corn futures.
- USDA estimated corn production at 12.921 billion bushels was down 97 million bushels from Oct esimate and 74 million down from trade estimate average at 12.995 billion. But corn supply side was not stable due to lateness in harvest and maturity level in some of the major corn states.
- The USDA's report yesterday also showed that world ending stocks in corn stand at only 16.5% of projected usage at the end of the year. This is the third lowest in the past 34 years.
- Technical analysis for corn (Dec9); Daily corn chart show bullish trend in both minor and major trend. Stochastic, MACD and RSI was uptrend. Moving average is bullish. With outside market supportive. USD index was bearish , dollar still used for carry trade due to interest rate still low in US that force investor looking for high return asset. I think money will flow in to commodity and corn price should continue up today, next resistance is 400 cent.
CBOT Soybean pre open , Nov 11,2009
Soybean
- Soybean (Jan10) was up 6.25 cent for overnight market, USD Index made new low, EU equity open higher, crude oil up but palm oil down 0.4%.
- USDA report was bearish for soybean, the average yield was raised to 43.3 bu/acre and production was raised to 3.319 billion bushels from Oct estimated of 3.250 billion which average estimated range at 3.15-3.79.
- USDA forecast world ending stock increase to 250.23 million tonnes from high production in US, Brazil and Argentina. USDA increase Argentina production to 53 million tonnes from higher planting area more than last oil world estimated at 50 million tonnes which they concern on drought.
- Dry areas in Argentina would have a little rain in next week. Give some hope for soybean plantation. Rain expected to be very light and isolated of much in Cordoba, southern Santiago del Estero, central Santa Fe, Southwestern Buenos Aires and La Pampa.
- Technical for Soybean (Jan10), Soybean prices had strength support at 953 cent, the reverse pattern occur in soybean daily chart, Slow stochastic indicated buying signal but moving average indicator and RSI was neutral. Today price could up from outside market supportive minor trend is bullish but major trend still bearish pressure from fundamental. I think in short term price may not lower than 950 but in other way, soybean price will not break next major resistance at 1,023 cent . Today next resistance is 983 cent and next psychological resistance is 1,000 cent.
China commodity data, Nov 11,2009
Today, There are many commodity data release from China , I summarize in the detail bellow.
- China's crude oil import in October rose 19.7% (year on year) to 19.34 million tonnes or 4.55 million barrel per day up from September at 4.19 million barrel per day.
- China's coal export in October up 1% from last month to 2.05 million tonnes. The export will steady in next two month, demand from Japan and Korea has improve but not increase sharply.
- China's crude steel and iron ore output in October down from record in September. The monthly basis, crude steel output up 2% from September to 51.75 million tonnes but in daily basis, Oct output was 1.67 million tonnes/day down 1.2% from Sept at 1.69 million.
- Cnina's power generation in Oct up 17.1% (year on year)
- China's refinery crude oil increase 10.4% from last year to 33.29 million tonnes or 7.84 million barrels per day and up from Sept at 32.83 million tonnes or 7.84 million barrels per day.
- China refined copper up 1.1% on the month to 399,300 tonnes in Oct.
- China's aluminum production in October, up 4.4 % from last month and up 17.1% year on year to 1.26 million tonnes from opened new capacity on firm prices.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
USDA Crop Production
USDA forecast soybean production at 3.319 billion bushels, up 2% from Oct forecast and up 12% from last year that's above trade expectation of 3.269 billion bushels , average yield are 43.3 bu/acre. , increase 0.9 bushel from Oct estimated and up 3.6 bushels from 2008.
Corn production forecast at 12.921 billion bushels, down 1 % from Oct estimated at 12.995 billion but increase 7% from 2008. , yields are expected to 162.9 bu/acre down 1.3 bushels from Oct estimated at 163.7 bu/acre.
Soybean and Corn production are record crop.
The world soybean production rise 4 million tonnes to 250.23 tonnes with increase from US up 2 million, Brazil up 1 million to 63 million tonnes and Argentina up 1 million to 53 million tonnes.
Soybean production still bearish for Soybean prices.
Corn production forecast at 12.921 billion bushels, down 1 % from Oct estimated at 12.995 billion but increase 7% from 2008. , yields are expected to 162.9 bu/acre down 1.3 bushels from Oct estimated at 163.7 bu/acre.
Soybean and Corn production are record crop.
The world soybean production rise 4 million tonnes to 250.23 tonnes with increase from US up 2 million, Brazil up 1 million to 63 million tonnes and Argentina up 1 million to 53 million tonnes.
Soybean production still bearish for Soybean prices.
Monday, November 9, 2009
CBOT : Soybean Outlook Nov 9-13,2009
Last week CBOT soybean prices had pressure from expansion of US harvest. Soybean harvest pick up significantly to 51% at Nov 1 reported by USDA and expected increase to 70-75% in this week. Tomorrow(Nov 10) USDA will release US crop production and world supply& demand (link to report here) , soybean production expected to be a largest on the record. The average analysis estimated was 3.292 billion bushels from USDA's October forecast at 3.250 billion bushels.
There's not only US will get a big soybean crop, Brazil's soybean production will be a record too. CONAB (the Brazil National Supply Crop.) was estimated Brazil soybean crop at 62.5-63.6 million tonnes, compared with the range of 62.26 - 63.27 million estimated in October. Brazilian's farmers shift area to soybean planting because of attractive international prices and lower production cost and they rush to plant early soy crop for early harvest on Jan to Feb 2010, target to receive high premium. Planting area for Brazil's soybean was estimated range at 22.35-22.75 million hectares, up from 21.73 million last year. The Brazil's weather forecasts show above average rains which will benefit for soybean production.
CONAB said "Weather forecasts for the next three month show above average rains which will benefit crops"
picture from Qtweather
Oil world said "With favorable weather, the total Brazil soybean crop could exceed the last CONAB estimated by around 1 million tones."
The US and World production are a bearish factor as same as good US harvest. but there is some bullish factor that would support soybean price in this week due to the following factors.
The US export soybean will increasing sharply after Nov because some shipment were delay from Oct to Nov due to lack of soybean. But in Nov , harvest will develop and soybean coming out to serve export demand. Last week US soybean export inspection in weekend of Oct 29 were increase to 63.7 million tonnes with 40.1 million bushels to China and cumulative shipment from Sept 1 were 218 million bushels( up 11% yoy). China still biggest buyer of US soybean.
Decline of Argentina soybean production, In Argentina the drought has effected 12-15 million hectares of agriculture production. Rainfall during Oct was below normal in major Argentina soybean growing area, the Buenos Aires was 53% below normal, Cordoba 31%, Santa Fe 50%, Entre Rios 73% and La Pampa 16%. Dryness condition lead to delayed planting, as of Nov 4 Argentina soybean planting was only 12% compared with 30% in 2008 and 32% in 2007 (same time).
Oil world said " Unless the moisture situation improves noticeably in the next two weeks, Argentina soybean plantings and production will fall short of earlier expectations." Oilworld expectation 50 million tonnes and USDA expected 52 million tonnes in Oct estimated.
picture from Qtweather
The another bullish factor is Outside market support from weakness dollar, higher crude oil and gold prices. Major trend of USD index was bearish. The US unemployment rate is surprisingly high at 10.2% that keep FED rate steady at 0-0.25% for an extend period. Investor will looking for higher return and pour money to commodity. Oil and gold would keep rallies from money flow and also that money will flow in to CBOT grain.This week soybean, corn and wheat have support from weaker dollar and fund buying.
There's not only US will get a big soybean crop, Brazil's soybean production will be a record too. CONAB (the Brazil National Supply Crop.) was estimated Brazil soybean crop at 62.5-63.6 million tonnes, compared with the range of 62.26 - 63.27 million estimated in October. Brazilian's farmers shift area to soybean planting because of attractive international prices and lower production cost and they rush to plant early soy crop for early harvest on Jan to Feb 2010, target to receive high premium. Planting area for Brazil's soybean was estimated range at 22.35-22.75 million hectares, up from 21.73 million last year. The Brazil's weather forecasts show above average rains which will benefit for soybean production.
CONAB said "Weather forecasts for the next three month show above average rains which will benefit crops"
picture from Qtweather
Oil world said "With favorable weather, the total Brazil soybean crop could exceed the last CONAB estimated by around 1 million tones."
The US and World production are a bearish factor as same as good US harvest. but there is some bullish factor that would support soybean price in this week due to the following factors.
The US export soybean will increasing sharply after Nov because some shipment were delay from Oct to Nov due to lack of soybean. But in Nov , harvest will develop and soybean coming out to serve export demand. Last week US soybean export inspection in weekend of Oct 29 were increase to 63.7 million tonnes with 40.1 million bushels to China and cumulative shipment from Sept 1 were 218 million bushels( up 11% yoy). China still biggest buyer of US soybean.
Decline of Argentina soybean production, In Argentina the drought has effected 12-15 million hectares of agriculture production. Rainfall during Oct was below normal in major Argentina soybean growing area, the Buenos Aires was 53% below normal, Cordoba 31%, Santa Fe 50%, Entre Rios 73% and La Pampa 16%. Dryness condition lead to delayed planting, as of Nov 4 Argentina soybean planting was only 12% compared with 30% in 2008 and 32% in 2007 (same time).Oil world said " Unless the moisture situation improves noticeably in the next two weeks, Argentina soybean plantings and production will fall short of earlier expectations." Oilworld expectation 50 million tonnes and USDA expected 52 million tonnes in Oct estimated.
picture from Qtweather
The another bullish factor is Outside market support from weakness dollar, higher crude oil and gold prices. Major trend of USD index was bearish. The US unemployment rate is surprisingly high at 10.2% that keep FED rate steady at 0-0.25% for an extend period. Investor will looking for higher return and pour money to commodity. Oil and gold would keep rallies from money flow and also that money will flow in to CBOT grain.This week soybean, corn and wheat have support from weaker dollar and fund buying.
Friday, November 6, 2009
Wet harvest advancing, yields looking good
With grain dryers running nonstop across the state, harvest proceeded in force this week as several dry days finally appeared.
The most recent Iowa Crops and Weather report released by the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service revealed corn harvest for grain had reached an 18 percent completion rating, which was 22 percent behind last year and five days behind the five-year average. The moisture content for all corn in the field was estimated at 26 percent, or 7 percentage points higher than the five-year average.
While the moisture content of corn harvested was estimated at 23 percent in the report, Iowa's corn crop condition rating had increased to 82 percent good to excellent by Sunday, with yields looking like they may approach the 186 per bushel record yield forecast set by the USDA.
Soybeans harvested had reached the 54 percent completion level, which was 38 percent behind last year and 26 days behind the five-year average. The crop's condition was rated as 16 percent being excellent, 53 percent good, 21 percent fair, 7 percent poor and 3 percent very poor......Full article here
The Weekly Gold Digger
The US Dollar showed some weakness this week after the IMF (International Monetary Fund) had sold 200 tonnes of Gold to the Reserve Bank of India for 6.7 billion. This development along with the thought that other countries may follow suit and purchase additional reserves of Gold to fill their Gold reserve ratios. It was previously thought that the level that these countries wanted to buy the metal would be in the $1020.00 to $1030.00 area. This re-established the floor to approximately $1050.00. These markets are also responding to the play by play of our economic recovery. The relationship between the US Dollar and the Gold Market temporarily waned on Tuesday due to the purchase. We will be gaging the economic recovery on a variety of factors and the affect on the US Dollar. In this case, I still believe that in the long term, we shall see the US Dollar drift lower.......Full article here
Wheat lacking fundamental supports as stocks remain large
Wheat
For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.53 1/2 lower; Kansas City wheat $.50 1/2 lower and Minneapolis wheat $.48 lower. Wheat values should slide quickly as there is no fundamental support for these prices. U.S. and world ending stocks remain huge and current usage is slow, leaving the stocks at a large level......
Full article here
Technical for Trading Friday Nov 6, 2009
Technical by chococommodity
CBOT-Soybean(Jan10) Soybean prices has down from high 1,022 cent , not enough money flow to break resistance 1,017 cent just touch and goes down. The major trend is down pressure from fundamental, huge US crop, good weather for harvest , Brazil crop estimated at 62.5-63.5 million by CONAB more than USDA at 62 million tonnes, trader eye on USDA supply and demand release on next Tuesday. From 30 min chart (price was 979 while I wrote blog in Asia trade) after slow stochastic indicated selling signal at 985 cent prices was trading below moving average 10,20,30 bearish in moving average indicator. Slow stochastic is down trend. MACD seem to be reverse and RSI is neutral with downtrend. Intraday trend is mixed. Daily chart is also bearish in MACD and Slow stochastic indicator. Price will open lower . The support level is 973-967 and trading range is 967-990 cent.
CBOT-Corn(Dec09) Corn price down after cannot break resistance at 412 cent and price could not hold at 386 cent of 200 day moving average , Daily chart pattern show minor reverse from up to down trend, Slow stochastic has selling signal and down trend, MACD is down trend but RSI is neutral. Their is bearish in daily chart. Addition analysis with 30 min chart, It shown buying singnal in MACD, Stochastic and RSI is neutral. Price pattern is side way steady around 375 cent. The 30 min corn's chart indicated a reversal at 375 cent. Today corn price will be lower. Down side support 373-370 and 365 cent and trading rage is 370-385 cent.
CBOT-Wheat(Dec09) Stochastic indicator in daily chart shown sell signal at 513 cent level. MACD is down trend but RSI is neutral. Moving average indicator has a minor selling signal, wheat price will reverse to down trend. From 30 min chart, price pattern is side way at 512 cent , Stochastic, RSI and MACD is neutral. In Asia trade wheat price can hold at 513 cent.Today wheat price will open lower . The support is 510-513 cent and trading range is 510-520.
Add with trend for futures trading, present by www.patterntrapper.com
The Trend for trading on Thursday, 6 Nov indicated corn, soybean, soy meal and wheat futures is bearish with selling signal but soy oil is neutral with minor selling signal. USD index is bearish. Crude oil and Gold price still bullish.
CBOT-Soybean(Jan10) Soybean prices has down from high 1,022 cent , not enough money flow to break resistance 1,017 cent just touch and goes down. The major trend is down pressure from fundamental, huge US crop, good weather for harvest , Brazil crop estimated at 62.5-63.5 million by CONAB more than USDA at 62 million tonnes, trader eye on USDA supply and demand release on next Tuesday. From 30 min chart (price was 979 while I wrote blog in Asia trade) after slow stochastic indicated selling signal at 985 cent prices was trading below moving average 10,20,30 bearish in moving average indicator. Slow stochastic is down trend. MACD seem to be reverse and RSI is neutral with downtrend. Intraday trend is mixed. Daily chart is also bearish in MACD and Slow stochastic indicator. Price will open lower . The support level is 973-967 and trading range is 967-990 cent.
CBOT-Corn(Dec09) Corn price down after cannot break resistance at 412 cent and price could not hold at 386 cent of 200 day moving average , Daily chart pattern show minor reverse from up to down trend, Slow stochastic has selling signal and down trend, MACD is down trend but RSI is neutral. Their is bearish in daily chart. Addition analysis with 30 min chart, It shown buying singnal in MACD, Stochastic and RSI is neutral. Price pattern is side way steady around 375 cent. The 30 min corn's chart indicated a reversal at 375 cent. Today corn price will be lower. Down side support 373-370 and 365 cent and trading rage is 370-385 cent.
CBOT-Wheat(Dec09) Stochastic indicator in daily chart shown sell signal at 513 cent level. MACD is down trend but RSI is neutral. Moving average indicator has a minor selling signal, wheat price will reverse to down trend. From 30 min chart, price pattern is side way at 512 cent , Stochastic, RSI and MACD is neutral. In Asia trade wheat price can hold at 513 cent.Today wheat price will open lower . The support is 510-513 cent and trading range is 510-520.
Add with trend for futures trading, present by www.patterntrapper.com
The Trend for trading on Thursday, 6 Nov indicated corn, soybean, soy meal and wheat futures is bearish with selling signal but soy oil is neutral with minor selling signal. USD index is bearish. Crude oil and Gold price still bullish.
Presented by www.PatternTrapper.com | Minor Trend | Major Trend | Trend Reading | ||||
| INDICES | 3x1 | 7x5 | |||||
| S&P 500 - Dec ESZ9 | + 16.25 |  | | ||||
| Dow Jones - Dec YMZ9 | + 169 | | | ||||
| Nasdaq - Dec NQZ9 | + 32.50 | | | ||||
| Russell - Dec TFZ9 | + 14.50 | | |
| CURRENCIES |
| US Dollar Index - Dec DXZ9 | + 0.040 |  | | ||||
| Australian Dollar - Dec ADZ9 | − 0.0005 | | | ||||
| British Pound - Dec BPZ9 | + 0.0021 | | | ||||
| Canadian Dollar - Dec CDZ9 | − 0.0024 | | | ||||
| EuroFX - Dec ECZ9 | + 0.0010 | | | ||||
| Japanese Yen - Dec JYZ9 | + 0.0003 | | | ||||
| Swiss Franc - Dec SFZ9 | + 0.0002 | | |
| ENERGY |
| Crude Oil - Dec CLZ9 | − 0.78 | | | ||||
| Heating Oil - Dec HOZ9 | − 0.0326 | | | ||||
| Natural Gas - Dec NGZ9 | + 0.057 | | |
| GRAINS |
| Corn - Dec CZ9 | − 7^4 | | | ||||
| Wheat - Dec WZ9 | − 8^6 | | | ||||
| Soybeans - Jan SF0 | − 27^0 | | | ||||
| Soybean Meal - Dec SMZ9 | − 10.3 | | | ||||
| Soybean Oil - Dec BOZ9 | − 0.37 | | |
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