Grain Complex

The CRB TrendTrader report is Short Soybeans, Wheat, Corn, Meal, Oats, Rice and Long Bean Oil.

See full position report below.

Remember - day traders work for the markets - Trend Traders let the markets work for them, the Trend is your friend!

The CRB Futures Market Service is one of the oldest and most respected market letters in the industry since 1934.

Grains

Grain prices this morning are higher. May corn this morning is up +1-1/4 cents, May soybeans are up +5-3/4 cents, and May wheat is up +4-3/4 cents. The grain markets yesterday finished mostly lower. May corn closed unchanged, May soybeans closed down -26-1/2 cents, and May wheat closed down -3 cents. May corn and May soybeans fell to 1-month lows and May wheat plunged to a 5-month low. Bearish factors included (1) the decline in gasoline which undercuts ethanol prices and corn demand, (2) carry-over weakness in wheat prices after the USDA Wednesday hiked US wheat stockpiles to a 22-year high, (3) slack foreign demand for US corn after the USDA reported US corn sales in the week ended Mar 4 plunged -56% from a week earlier, and (4) concerns that more buyers of US soybeans will cancel purchases and seek supplies from South America after the USDA reported that buyers canceled 115,808 metric tons of US soybeans purchased in the week ended Mar 4. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, and (2) increased foreign demand for US wheat after the USDA reported that US wheat sales for the week ended Mar 4 quadrupled from the previous week. ......more detial

Allendale Early Calls: Larger Corn Production Expected, Many Areas Not Moving Cattle Numbers

Grain Market Influences:

Weekly export sales are viewed as bearish wheat but neutral corn, soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil.

Harvest activity for this week should be the largest one week advancement of the year. Farmers are also telling us corn is drying down quickly now.

Corn summary… This morning showed a classic pattern by the funds that we have seen many times in the past. After a couple days of buying they often come in and buy some “clean up” orders before going to the sideline.

Three of four firms that have released crop estimates look for larger corn production. This also includes Allendale. USDA will give its take on Tuesday.

China purchased 6,000 tonnes of Thailand corn. This is not too surprising. Thailand has been trying to sell government stocks. This order was for quick delivery to a feed mill.

Soybean summary… It was an impressive start over 10 higher this morning. Like corn, it turned out to be some clean up buying. If that is the case we expect some steady drifting lower in the near future. Just imagine if we start trading the fundamentals.

Brazil’s government upped its estimate of the 2009/10 soybean production from a range of 62.26 - 63.27 million metric tonnes to a range of 62.50 – 63.6 mmt.

All four firms, including Allendale, that have released crop estimates look for larger soybean production. USDA will give its take on Tuesday.

Wheat summary… There is one market that still is attempting to follow the relationship to the dollar and this would be it. We now have a great head and shoulders top in which we will like to sell from if 487 or so is taken out. This is the only market we may need to watch outside markets for in the next few days.

Egypt may announce who will supply its tender for 55,000 to 60,000 tonnes of wheat later this morning. Also, keep in mind yesterday’s story that indicated they will start sending agricultural quarantine officials to inspect imported wheat at ports of origin starting with its next purchase.

Japan seeks 35,100 tonnes of food wheat in its regular tender. .....Full article here.....

Grain Market Analysis Wednesday, November 04, 2009

December corn futures closed up 7 1/4 cents at $3.89 1/2 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday. The bulls have regained upside technical momentum this week to suggest the uptrend can be restarted. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above major psychological resistance at $4.00 a bushel. The next downside price objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at this week's low of $3.59 1/4 a bushel. First resistance for December corn is seen at yesterday's high of $3.96 1/2 and then at $4.00. First support is seen at $3.84 and then at $3.80.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

January soybeans closed up 14 cents at $10.12 a bushel yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high again yesterday. The bean market bulls this week have regained upside technical momentum to suggest the uptrend can be restarted. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is pushing and closing January prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $10.29 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $9.62 a bushel. First resistance for January soybeans is seen at yesterday's high of $10.21 and then at $10.29 1/4. First support is seen at $10.00 and then at yesterday's low of $9.87 1/4.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

December Chicago SRW wheat closed down 1 cent at $5.15 3/4 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday. Bulls still have the slight near-term technical advantage. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.80. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close December futures prices above solid technical resistance at $5.29 a bushel. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $5.20 3/4 and then at $5.25. First support lies at yesterday's low of $5.04 3/4 and then at $5.00.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5......Full article here

Harvest continues to be slowed by rain, snow

GRAND FORKS — Farmers made little if any progress in harvesting crops the past week in eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota as rainy, muddy and cold conditions continued to foil field operations.Water can be seen standing in farm fields in the southern end of the Red River Valley, which has gotten more rain — up to 5 inches — the past month than the northern end.The National Weather Service put out flood watches in the southern end of the valley last week as steady rains on already saturated fields meant the new water mostly drained quickly into ditches, streams and rivers.There’s more and more doubt if all the beans and flax will get harvested before winter sets in, farmers and county extension agents say. Corn and sunflowers usually can make it through winter, if necessary.Minnesota farmers got in only two days of field work last week, and North Dakota farmers only three days, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly crop progress report.It’s the fifth-consecutive week farmers have gotten less than 3.5 days for field work......Full article here

Grain volatility to stay high in 2010-NAEGA Martin

NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) - Prices of agricultural commodities will remain volatile in 2010 due to supply constraints, volatile shipping costs and a constant demand pull from new demand sources like biofuels, North American Export Grain Association President and CEO Gary Martin said on Tuesday.

"In the last three years, volatility in this industry has increased and it's likely to stay at this new plateau of volatility," Martin said on the sidelines of the Global Soybean and Grain Transport conference.

Rising demand for raw materials from developing countries, most notably China, helped to drive grain and soybean prices to record highs last year. Prices retreated in 2009 amid the global economic slump but have since recovered somewhat......Full article here....

CBOT grains price rise support from frost and dollar

Grains price on CBOT raising : Corn, Soybean and Wheat price was increase from frost concern , weak dollar and support from outside market.

Related news on the detail below:

Frost and dollar combine to send crops soaring (from agrimoney.com)

China Cut Corn Wheat and Soybean forecast

The China national grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) cut corn,soybean and wheat output forecast. Most of China growing areas have been hurt by drought. They cut corn production by 1 M.Tons to 165.5 M.Tons, wheat by 0.55 M.Tons to 114.95 M.Tons and soybeans by 0.5 M.Tons to 14.5 M.Tons.