German Cocoa demand increase

The Industrial group BDSI reported that cocoa grinding increase by 11.1% to 98,315 tonnes, highest since Q1 last year. The forecasts in 2009-10 , cocoa production will fall below demand. Production in Ivory Coast are pressure from economic crisis that lead to lack of investment then plantation is under productive. Ivory Coast output fell 14% from last year and delay harvest in the first week of new 2009/10 market year that will support cocoa prices.

German cocoa grind (change year on year)
Q3/09 : 98,315 tonnes (+11.1%)
Q2/09: 75,430 tonnes (-15.3%)
Q1/09: 80,401 tonnes (-21.3%)
Q4/08: 87,576 tonnes (-17.2%)
Source : BDSI

Argentina wheat crop may fall below USDA estimated

Some analyst and the Buenos Aires Grian Exchange showed data that Argentina's wheat output will below USDA estimated. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported crop estimated around 7.55 million tonnes and Dow jones reported 7.1 million tonnes that lower than USDA expected of 8.0 million tonnes. The farmer switch out from wheat down 40% year on year because of drought during plant season and high soybean prices.

UK barley production hit 12 year high

The UK barley production hit 12 year high which increase 9.8% to 6.74 million tons, highest level since 1997. Farmer in UK switch from wheat to barley that sent UK wheat production drop 18% to 14.2 million tons this year.

UK harvest 2009
Wheat= 14.2 million tonnes -17.7%
Spring barley= 4.18 million tonnes +25%
Winter barley= 2.57 million tonnes -8.4%
Oats = 731,000 tonnes -6.8%
Oilseed rape = 1.94 million tonnes -1.8%

Source: Defra

Argentina Soybean Crop 2009/10

The USDA revise Argentina soybean production in 2009/10 that show production will increase by 63% year on year.

Argentina's soybean crop, 2008-09

Plantings: 17.2m hectares

Production: 32.0m tonnes

Exports: 4.15m tonnes

Crush: 32.5m tonnes

Estimates for year beginning April 2009

Argentina's soybean crop, 2009-10

Plantings: 18.5m hectares

Production: 52.0m tonnes

Exports: 12.0m tonnes

Crush: 37.5m tonnes

Estimates for year beginning April 2010

Source: USDA attache report

Brazil Soybean output may rise to a record

The CONAB forecast output of Brazil soybean (2009/10) will be around 62.3-63.3 million metric tons, up from 57.1 million in 2008/09 and corn will harvest 50.9 - 52.2 million tons, inline with this year's 51 million tons.

comment : world beans production are increase all around the world even if in Cambodia they grow soybean increase by 60% from last year.

The EIA increase demand forecast in crude oil

The EIA reported to increase projection of world crude oil consumption from perspective of China economic growth and recovery in Asian country. The World crude oil demand would reach 84.7 million barrels a day in Q4 and increase to 84.7 million barrels a day in 2010.

Comment: It's good perspective for crude oil price but it too far to forecast next year because the economic will not recovery to normal stage. My opinion US economy recover in W-Shape.

US Crude oil inventories

US Crude oil inventories reported by EIA decrease by 1 million barrels in weekend Oct2 while analyst expected stock would increase by 1.9 million barrel. The EIA also reported gasoline stock raise by 2.9 million barrels, more than trade estimated increase by 1.3 million barrel. The distillates went up by 700,000 barrel , above expectation by 400,000 barrel increase.

Comment: Crude oil stock decease is support price but the distillate and gasoline stock are still high that could limited upside. Speculated trading in short term is good strategy.

CBOT grains price rise support from frost and dollar

Grains price on CBOT raising : Corn, Soybean and Wheat price was increase from frost concern , weak dollar and support from outside market.

Related news on the detail below:

Frost and dollar combine to send crops soaring (from agrimoney.com)

Grain Export inspection

USDA weekly grain export inspections, weekend of Oct 1,

1. Corn = 38.405 million Bu. , Est = 31-36
2. Wheat = 18.033 million Bu. , Est = 16-23
3. Soybean = 12.482 million Bu. , Est = 10-18
   

comment: Corn inspection above expectation, Wheat and soybean are within expectation. Good export inspection still support prices.


link to USDA report

Crude palm oil up 5 ringgit in choppy trade

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivative exchange ended up by 5 ringgit, prices cannot sustain earlier gain due to slight decease demand in cash market and long liquidation. The December contract on Bursa Malaysia ended up 5 ringgit at 2,042 ringgit/tons after reach high at 2,057 ringgit.

Related News :
Palm Oil to Top Forecast on Supplies, DBSVickers Says (Update1) ; long term palm oil price will up due to stockpile decline , weak dollar support and demand increase that will limited downward of palm oil prices.

Palm Oil Gains on Optimism Stockpiles Reduced After Festivities ; palm oil prices supported from reported decline in stockpile but i think it is an short term speculation.

Self Sufficent in Thailand: Example from farmer

The Self Sufficient philosophy that represent by King Bhumibul had change life of small farmers in Thailand. One of them is MS.Jumnein farmer from Trang province who use self sufficient concept in her farm. Along the royal self-sufficient economy concept of integrated farming and used effective microorganism (EM) instead of using chemical. Ms.Jumnein based on the sufficiency economy life style for 2 year.Before that she was a professional gardener rubber plant and animal husbandry, including pigs and poultry, together with her husband . It is pretty enough revenue to pay for immediate family. From project of the Vocational Education Commission that promote and educate about sufficiency economy in Thailand. Let she know this life style does not need that much land area. She started by digging fish ponds which Length x width x depth equal to 2x4x1 meters and around the fish pond is a kitchen garden plant , such as chilli, eggplant and squash lemon grass. The concept of economic self-sufficiency of His Majesty she used in 4 issues is the cultivation, livestock, fishery and environment. This will focus on food safety and free toxic chemicals production . She began with 2 fish ponds, but when that yield was satisfied she expanded fish pond. Until now, she have 7 ponds of fish and 1 pond frogs. She do not measure success by sales but the food security of her family ensure that she will have enough food for their children and no toxic residues their food. It was reduce costs of living. The product that surplus from family consumption will sales to community market to generated income. I think the sustainable farming no need much money or many land area but you need to learn and understand. You can used even new technology or folk wisdom for production. Every one can used this philosophy. The poor countries could be used this way to reduce poverty and make roadmap to strengthen their community.

The Summary of the FC Stone and Informa October production Estimates

The FC Stone and Informa October estimates compare to Sep estimates are bearish for grain prices.

Corn production(Million Bu.) Bu./Acre
USDA (Sept) 12,954 161.9
Fc stone (Oct) 13,064 163.3
Fc Stone (Sept) 13,020 162.7
Informa (Oct) 13,127 164.7
Informa (Sept) 13,010 162.6

Soybean
USDA (Sept) 3,245 42.3
Fc stone (Oct) 3,329 43.4
Fc Stone (Sept) 3,266 42.6
Informa (Oct) 3,383 44.0
Informa (Sept) 3,305 43.1

comment: No crop damage from frost. Weather premium turn to harvest pressure. Soybean price decline which technical support price for next week is 853-860 cent.

US Employment Data

The US. Labor department reported job losses in Sept more than expectation:

1. Payroll : net loss jobs by 263,000 in Sept, more than trade estimated at 175,000 and up from 201,000 in August.
   
2. Unemployment rate: rose to 9.8% in Sept from 9.7% in August.

Comment: Economic recovery is not sustain also bearish for equity and commodity prices.