Allendale Early Calls: Larger Corn Production Expected, Many Areas Not Moving Cattle Numbers

Grain Market Influences:

Weekly export sales are viewed as bearish wheat but neutral corn, soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil.

Harvest activity for this week should be the largest one week advancement of the year. Farmers are also telling us corn is drying down quickly now.

Corn summary… This morning showed a classic pattern by the funds that we have seen many times in the past. After a couple days of buying they often come in and buy some “clean up” orders before going to the sideline.

Three of four firms that have released crop estimates look for larger corn production. This also includes Allendale. USDA will give its take on Tuesday.

China purchased 6,000 tonnes of Thailand corn. This is not too surprising. Thailand has been trying to sell government stocks. This order was for quick delivery to a feed mill.

Soybean summary… It was an impressive start over 10 higher this morning. Like corn, it turned out to be some clean up buying. If that is the case we expect some steady drifting lower in the near future. Just imagine if we start trading the fundamentals.

Brazil’s government upped its estimate of the 2009/10 soybean production from a range of 62.26 - 63.27 million metric tonnes to a range of 62.50 – 63.6 mmt.

All four firms, including Allendale, that have released crop estimates look for larger soybean production. USDA will give its take on Tuesday.

Wheat summary… There is one market that still is attempting to follow the relationship to the dollar and this would be it. We now have a great head and shoulders top in which we will like to sell from if 487 or so is taken out. This is the only market we may need to watch outside markets for in the next few days.

Egypt may announce who will supply its tender for 55,000 to 60,000 tonnes of wheat later this morning. Also, keep in mind yesterday’s story that indicated they will start sending agricultural quarantine officials to inspect imported wheat at ports of origin starting with its next purchase.

Japan seeks 35,100 tonnes of food wheat in its regular tender. .....Full article here.....