CBOT Mar 17
Last changes
SMK 267 -0.7
SMN 269.7 -0.7
SMQ 271 -0.5
SMU 272.1 -0.5
SMV 272.7 -0.4
SMZ 274.5 -0.2
SMF7 275.5 -0.3
SK 897.75 +3.25
SN 904 +3.75
SQ 906.25 +4
SU 906.25 +4
SX 909.25 +4.25
SF7 913.5 +4.25
BOK 33.41 +0.72
BON 33.64 +0.72
BOQ 33.72 +0.72
CK 368.50 +0.25
CN 373.00 -0.25
WK 462.50 -8.25
WN 470.00 -8.25
The markets opened as called today with more new highs in the soyoil chart. But later in the day lower grains pulled higher soy complex trade off the new highs.
The soy complex traded into new highs and key resistance for many areas of the market. May soyoil futures etched a new high for the move up at 3355, which created a floor under beans. May beans traded to trendline resistance at 9.04 1/2 before finding some resistance to higher prices. Meal traded both sides first, consolidating sideways between 265.00-270.00 for the May contract. The saga in the Brazil political scene continues with protests flying as Lula becomes Chief of Staff. The Brazilian Real continues to stay firm, shutting off farmer selling from that area. But US farmers were good sellers on this bean rally, taking advantages of higher prices to get something marketed.
The buy soyoil/sell meal trade continues to be the key trend and the main story. Weaker cash meal and lower exports continue - as Argentine meal displaces US. Meal spreads were continuing weaker with May/July trading to $2.80 carry and May/July beans trading at a 6 1/2 carry. A continuing strong performance on the technical side from soyoil charts, and higher palm on production worries vs. weaker export meal outlooks underpinned oilshare which moved to new highs with July over 38% and May at .3850%.
Wheat futures started the day higher but once again started to set up a new failure point in the May contract at $4.75. Better chances of rain in the plains and poor export sales set-up the downturn which impacted corn after it traded to new highs for the move upward. Kansas City futures led the way down for wheat, off 15c by noontime. Sell-stops were triggered in CBOT values when prices broke $4.65.
fund recap
sold 3000 wheat
bot 4000 beans
bot 4000 soyoil
The Dow opened lower but traded both sides quickly, advancing to over 100 pts by midday. The US dollar is significantly weaker with more comments about the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future.
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