CBOT Mar 21
Last changes
SMK 268.8 +2.2
SMN 271.4 +2.1
SMQ 272.4 +1.9
SMU 273.6 +2
SMV 274.2 +1.9
SMZ 276.1 +1.9
SMF7 277.2 +1.8
SK 902 +4.5
SN 908.25 +4
SQ 910.5 +4
SU 910.5 +4.25
SX 913.5 +3.75
SF7 917.5 +3.5
BOK 33.58 +0.16
BON 33.82 +0.17
BOQ 33.90 +0.17
CK 369.50 +2.5
CN 374.25 +2.5
WK 466.50 +3.5
WN 473.50 +3.25
It's officially springtime but you wouldn't know it judging by the weather in the Midwest. The upper east coast is getting a blanket of snow, and the spring breakers down south will be laying out on the beach with wind breakers on.
The political scene in Brazil remains a turbulent one, with Brazil's President's appointment of Lula to a government position met with scrutiny and calls for him to be ousted. On the Ag side, there will be a 24 hour strike by Brazil's stevedore's calling for higher wages. While it involves all terminals not sure which commodity will be impacted.
The Friday Cattle on Feed was price positive for grains with Feb placements at 8 year highs. That report was friendly for corn, but last week's commitment-of-trader's report did show that a lot of shorts did cover in their positions. Still, there is a short under beans, corn, and wheat which will probably continue to play into price action this week since 1. it's a shortened one (closed Friday ) and 2. we still do have the March 31 Planting Intentions report
The markets opened on a mixed note with the most gains coming from the wheat pit, which supported the other markets as well. Funds went about the business covering in more short positions.
At 10:00 export inspections were released as follows:
wheat: 467,658 tons vs. 407,042 wk ago (vs. an expected 300-450)
corn: 1,013,668 tons vs. 815,149 wk ago (vs. an expected 750-950)
soybeans: 575,087 tons vs. 715,847 wk ago (vs. an expected 450-700,000)
Grain export inspections were fairly good - beans low end.
The soy complex traded on a mixed note with the most gains coming from beans and meal into midday. Hedge pressure remained light with only small farmer selling from the US and a firmer Brazilian Real shutting off farmer selling from that region. Meal prices continued to rebound as traders unwound previous buy soyoil / sell meal trade. July oilshare still continues strong at .3833%. July crush values remained relatively firm from 58/60c/bu. as meal prices continued to recover. Traders continue to monitor the one day stevedore's strike in Brazil to see if will return any biz back to the US through logistical hiccups should it turn into more than a one day affair. May soyoil values continue to congest in the upper end of recent trading ranges, which is price positive for the recent up-trend.
The commitment-of-trader's report reflected more shortcovering last week, but it did not make much of a difference today. Corn followed wheat futures higher, where more active short-covering took place right after the open. Leading the way were Kansas City wheat futures, where prices were supported by the cold temperatures this weekend in Oklahoma and Kansas.
Fund recap
bot 1000 wheat
bot 3000 corn
bot 5000 beans
bot 2000 meal
bot 1000 soyoil
OUTSIDE MARKETS
The Dow opened down 19 pts. lower but was higher by the midday hour in quiet turnover. The US dollar is firm while crude oil continues to consolidate between $35-$41/barrel. Feels like soyoil futures are matching the same pace.
There are no surprises here, as the funds continue to watch chart points and consider whether to exit a short trade. Rallies continue to be very slow and careful - but if May wheat walks above its 100 day moving average at 4.85 will be sure to light a larger fire under the market. Maybe these markets just need a higher place from which to break after the release of the March 31 Planting intentions report
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