Friday, April 1, 2016

CBOT Mar23 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat

CBOT Mar 23
Last changes
SMK 270.9 -0.1
SMN 273.6 -0.1
SMQ 274.7 +0
SMU 275.8 +0
SMV 276.4 -0.1
SMZ 278.4 +0.1
SMF7 279.3 +0.1
SK 905.25 -5
SN 912.25 -4.75
SQ 914.25 -4.75
SU 914 -4.75
SX 917.25 -4.25
SF7 921 -4.25
BOK 33.36 -0.57
BON 33.59 -0.56
BOQ 33.68 -0.56
CK 368.50 -1.5
CN 373.25 -1.5
WK 463.00 -3.75
WN 470.75 -3.75

Soybean trade lower with trade fading from the highs seen yesterday with South American harvest pressure ongoing along with negative outside markets. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is lower. South American harvest should continue to move along this week, running just ahead of normal pace with more variable yields in recent days. Shipping delays and political concerns will remain ongoing with the real holding much of
the recent gains although it is fading today. The oil side of the complex continues to drive crush margins in the near term, although it has backed off overnight. May beans have edged above the 200-day moving average at $9.04 yesterday, and will need to hold above that area today to garner more support. On the May soybean chart further support is the 10-day moving average at $8.98.

Corn trade is lower with the negative overall commodity market environment and limited fresh news. The weekly ethanol report showed production off 4,000 barrels per day, and stocks were 1.5% lower. Corn planting progress in the Mississippi Delta will remain slow in the near term, although warmer and drier temperatures through midweek will help before moisture moves through much of the belt. The South American corn crop continues to make good progress. Basis is likely to stay sideways to lower into midweek
with increased farmer movement on the recent rally. Trade will be closed Friday for Good Friday and open normal on Sunday night.

Wheat trade lower across the three contracts with spillover selling pressure from the row crops along with the firmer dollar. Plains weather remains concerning in the near term with dry weather and further cold snaps possible. World supplies remain ample which will limit potential rallies until more export business returns to the U.S., with the rest the world remaining cheaper than U.S. origin with Russia setting export records. Chart rallies should remain a common place with the market historically low.

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