CBOT Mar 29
Last changes
SMK 273.2 +1.1
SMN 275.8 +1.3
SMQ 276.9 +1.3
SMU 278 +1.2
SMV 278.8 +1.2
SMZ 280.8 +1.1
SMF7 281.4 +0.8
SK 916 +7
SN 922.75 +6.75
SQ 924.75 +6.5
SU 925 +6.75
SX 928.5 +6.5
SF7 931.75 +6
BOK 34.05 +0.42
BON 34.28 +0.42
BOQ 34.37 +0.43
CK 373.00 +2.5
CN 377.25 +2.5
WK 476.75 +5.75
WN 483.75 +5.75
Soybean trade is higher with trade near our highs. Bean oil is supporting beans, up 40 points this morning, with the market taking a run at the 9-month highs printed last week. Meal is fractionally mixed finding selling on spreading against bean oil. Crude is down over $1 this morning so outside market influence is not behind this move today in bean oil. The average trade guess for the 2016 Planting intentions is at 82.95 million acres versus 82.65 a year ago, the range of estimates is 81.6-84.2 million. The quarterly stocks are estimated to be at 1.569 billion bushels versus 1.327 a year ago, the range of expectations is 1.525-1.7. On the May soybean chart we moved above all major moving averages last week but have not accelerated up. Support is at the $9.04 200-day moving average which is the highest major moving average. Resistance is at the 3-month high printed yesterday a quarter cent below $9.15 then the 5-month high at $9.17 1/2 followed by the seven-month high at $9.29 1/4.
Meal prices actually started the day on a firm note following both beans and soyoil trade. Soyoil futures stayed on a steady path higher while May beans doubled highs for the move upward at 9.14 3/4. Canola futures have continued a higher path over the past few days, with more talk that China would not lower the amount of dockage it accepts on imports of canola. Light US farmer selling was noted in the bean market with better hedge pressure from the Argentina farmer.
Corn trade higher with a positive bias with the market sitting near the high of a 5 cent trading range. Corn has held a flat but higher trend the past three weeks with some new highs for the move yesterday and again today. Weather will have a bigger effect on what this market does in April and May to either grow our comfortable supplies, or lower them for the 2016-17 crop year. But for this week the market is focused on Thursday. The numbers would need to come out outside of the range of expectations on the low side to spark a rally, and if we acreage would come in at 91 million or higher, we could quickly challenge the contract lows on Thursday. The average trade guess is for the 2016 US corn acreage to be at 90.047 million acres, the range of estimates is 89-91.5 million. The March 1 Corn stocks are expected to be at 7.822 billion bushels versus 7.75 billion a
year ago. The range of estimates is 7.745-8.1 billion..
Wheat trade is higher across the three markets with support from beans and light follow-through buying following the strength yesterday. Support yesterday came from ongoing weather concerns after cold weather in the U.S. , and potential for a cold snap in Russia, although Russian temperatures have moderated. Plains weather is expected to remain fairly dry as well, with some potential uptick in the extended forecast. The Kansas weekly crop ratings were 57% good to excellent down 1 percentage point. The full reports should start next Monday, April 4. World supplies remain ample which will limit bigger rallies even with the U.S. acreage down. The average trade guess for the total
wheat planted acreate is at 51.659 million acres versus 54.644 a year ago.
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