CBOT May 13
Lastchanges
SMK361-5.8
SMN363-1.4
SMQ361-1.6
SMU359.7-2
SMV358-2
SMZ358.4-1.9
SMF7355.5-1.2
SK1055-9.5
SN1065-7
SQ1067-7
SU1059.5-7
SX1054.5-6.75
SF71051.75-6.5
BOK32.17-0.13
BON32.50-0.07
BOQ32.17-0.13
CK382.00-3.25
CN390.75+1.75
WK465.00+6.5
WN474.75+6.75
Soybean trade lower with volatile trade continuing with momentum turning lower from the report day with trade trying to consolidate. Meal is lower and oil is flat. Crush margins have seen pressure from a big slide in oil prices after big export sales announced earlier in the week. The USDA announced 420k mt of soybeans sold to unknown split between old and new crop. Resistance on July beans is at the $10.91 high post report, then $11. Support is at the $10.48 10-day then the $10.30 20-day, giving trade a pretty wide range between support and resistance.
Corn trade is higher with trade finding some light buying during the day session. US weather looks cooler and wetter in the near term which should be mildly supportive with slower planting and growth into the middle of next week. Brazil remains fairly dry in the near term, which should support export business from the US. Basis has been fairly stable to firmer this week. Ethanol margins remain fairly stable today with ethanol and unleaded hanging together in the upper end of the range, a little weaker overnight.
Wheat trade higher across the three contracts with some profit taking vs recent shorts. The dollar is sharply higher this morning, which should limit buying enthusiasm. World weather for wheat remains mostly non-threatening for the moment with growing optimism in about conditions in Russia.
Weekly review: The week has been more than the same old, as beans and meal busted through highs once again, this week the crop report was if not the catalyst, the day of a vicious rally. Oil share sets further, and hard to believe that it has made a contract low, as is down 2% for the week. Post report has turned the bid into corn and wheat as well, and as beans and meal hold gains, there seems to be a bit of price recovering in corn vs the beans that it could be argued more to come. But that of course is likely up to the meal market, as futures continue to soar, against a staid US meal basis, that, while implies delivery's, it has not happened. Seems the hysteria over ending stocks, for the most part 2015-2016, that the market digested on report day, the old crop draw down of 40 mil bushels must prove that this will get done, in the midst of lowest exports to date in over 10 years. Maybe that is what July-Nov speaks of this week, as is down 3 cents for the week while July beans are up 30. Meanwhile May goes off the board today with May-July beans at 80% of full carry, May-July oil pays 3.5%, and of course May-July meal trades inverse, as the only commodity that has not seen deliveries against the May this month. Carries abound in all, accept meal, as prices imply.....shortage, but of what?
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