CBOT May 20
Lastchanges
SMN392.7+14.6
SMQ380.8+9
SMU373.7+5.4
SMV368.5+4.5
SMZ366.6+4.2
SMF7362.5+4
SMH7350.7+3
SN1074.25+2.75
SQ1073.5+0.5
SU1060.25-1.75
SX1049.5-4
SF71047.5-3.75
SH71027.5-4.5
BON31.27-0.64
BOQ31.38-0.65
BOU31.50-0.65
CN394.50+4.5
CU396.75+4.25
CZ399.75+2.5
WN467.75-1
WU478.75-0.75
WZ496.50-1
Rain again in the St. Louis area with cool temperatures. This has been the trend for the season so far. On Monday we will see how far we got as far as planting progress is concerned. Temperatures are due to warm up but rains are due to keep coming.
Overnight features included another new contract high in the meal market. July meal jumped to $388.90 taking beans back up for the ride and solidifying this week's break as bottom lower support. Soyoil futures are in the red as oilshare now posts new lows in the July contract at 29%. This move has solidified itself in the trading space as one of the most dynamic trades, falling from overall highs of 39% a lot quicker than the process of rallying up there. Crush values are higher in step with much higher meal values.
ON the grain sector side, the market action is more ho-hum as corn and wheat chop around in wide ranges. Pressure for corn is coming from this week's rally that took the July futures contract just slightly beyond $4.00, while it feels like wheat is trying not to post new contract lows. Buy bean/sell corn trade continues. Yesterday July corn traded below trendline support but today we are back over it meaning that all eyes will be on if we can extend the bean rally further this morning. We certainly closed meal on the highs of the morning suggesting that there is more rally left still when the market opens. And that could apply to corn as well.
The Dow is going to open higher along with gold futures. Crude has been on both sides of even today inching ever-so-closer to $50/barrel with a trading range high so far of $48.79/barrel.
Futures opened as called with the major feature of the morning a new high in the July meal market at $391.70. But on Friday's new highs can also be met with a round of profit-taking, which was the case today. But by midday meal was on the move to the upside once again with bull spreading activity for beans and meal. Most of the volume was in the soy complex today, while grains (particularly wheat) was ignored.
SOY
The soy complex traded both sides of unchanged. July meal hit a new contract high at $391.70 before heading into a profit-taking round of trade. But after the 12:30 hour meal was back at it placing a new high once again. Bean prices tried to rally above key resistance in the July contract at 10.87 1/2 but failure against this level and weaker soyoil values ignited a profit-taking sell-off. Bean and meal inverses that were stronger at the open seemed to stall as flat-price trade took a morning break from the higher values across the board. Once again the trends present before the open continued with July oilshare falling below 29% to .2891%. July crush traded up to 1.26c/bu. an all-time seasonal high. Dec crush trading at 1.16c/bu also set a seasonal all-time high.
GRAINS
Wheat and corn prices were mixed, corn higher and wheat prices falling. Funds continue hold short positions in wheat and found no incentive to buy the market as technically it did not proceed over key resistance levels. July corn prices held bottom support well, and then followed bean prices upward. Corn spreads narrowed with July / Dec trading to a 5 1/4c carry.
fund recap
sold 2000 wheat
bot 5000 corn
sold 5000 beans
bot 4000 meal
sold 3000 soyoil
CLOSING COMMENTS
Planting progress is going to be full steam ahead this weekend. Farmers who can plant will. Others will be watching weather forecasts. If there is one thing we know it's that farmers can get into the fields quickly and make up for lost time. The corn market today is keeping some premium in for planting glitches. The bean and meal markets continue to display resiliency on breaks, indicative of bull market behavior, or "fade at your own risk". If needing to buy in bull markets, take advantage of breaks of size.
After all is said and done the futures / options position combined in contracts looks like this:
beans: net long 178,700
meal: net long 80,1000
soyoil: net long 48,300
corn: net long 69,900
wheat: net short 74,500
We will trade these positions on Monday.
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