CBOT closing 20Jun 2016

CBOT Jun20
Lastchanges
SMN402.7-4.7
SMQ402.1-4.6
SMU401.6-4.5
SMV400.4-4.6
SMZ400.7-4.6
SMF7396.8-4.4
SMH7378.9-2.6
SN1143.5-16
SQ1145.25-14.75
SU1136.25-15.5
SX1132.75-15.5
SF71130.75-15.25
SH71099.5-8
BON31.64-0.29
BOQ31.78-0.28
BOU31.91-0.28
CN421.25-16.5
CU426.75-16
CZ433.75-15
WN473.00-8.25
WU487.50-7.25
WZ507.50-5.5

Corn futures are lower with a cooler and and wetter forecast than Friday encouraging selling but some heat is still around. The forecast calls for good rains for much of the belt the next 7 days with well-above-normal temperatures only in the western edge of the belt, there is some model disagreement that will be watched closely by traders. Ethanol margins will likely stay under pressure for blenders and producers to start the week, although blender margins are better this morning with ethanol futures off 3 cents while unleaded is up 5. Crop progress is likely to show conditions down 1%-3%, with emergence near complete nationally. The weekly export inspections
were good at 1.265 million metric tons.

Soybean futures lower with trade 10-12 cents off the overnight lows with the wetter forecast encouraging selling. Meal is $3.50 to $4.50 lower, with oil 10 to 20 points lower. If weather continues to improve, the markets will likely focus on acres switched to soybeans from corn. Further export demand will be watched as well, as continued old crop sales will support the market as it would show continued struggles out of South America. The weekly export inspections improved at 314,990 metric tons. The weekly crop progress report is expected to decline slightly with planting near complete. On the July soybean chart support is the 20-day moving average at $11.28, with resistance now the 10-day at $11.60.

A weather induced strong close for corn last week Friday, was all but eliminated with today's price action.  Cooler forecast for the coming week and next seem to be the weather back drop the market is comfortable believing, at least as of today's close.  The soy complex has done little in the futures of late, with both oil share and board crush in more a consolidating mode.  Watched closely with of course be weather, but also pace of shipments of both beans and corn.  Today bean export inspections were a healthy number, but need to maintain that to make the trade believe that US will in fact ship out of the US enough beans to justify the drawn down of ending stocks seen in the last USDA S&D report.

This afternoon’s crop progress report 75% of US corn crop in good to excellent conditions, unchanged from previous week and 4% higher than last year. Soy beans at 73% good to excellent vs 74% last week, and 65% last year, same time.  So there is little input from this data.  Funds are "quite long" as a whole, with the Ag space, as of last Tuesday, long a net 479 th contracts, longest Fund position since 2014, a drought year.