Friday, June 3, 2016

CbOT closing 3 Jun 2016

CBOT Jun 3
  Last  changes
SMN  414.3 -4
SMQ  397.7 -1.7
SMU  390 +1.2
SMV  384.7 +3.3
SMZ  382.5 +3.2
SMF7  376.1 +3.5
SMH7  356.8 +2.1
SN  1132 -12.25
SQ  1122 -8.75
SU  1101.25 -1.25
SX  1085.25 +3.5
SF7  1082.5 +4.75
SH7  1055.5 +8.75
BON  32.26 uc
BOQ  32.38 +.01
BOU  32.51 +.03
CN  418.25 +3
CU  419.75 +3
CZ  419.75 +.5
WN  497.25 +11.75
WU  506.75 +10.5
WZ  514 +11

Soybeans and meal opened into new trading range highs before being met with an appropriate amount of profit-taking given the scope of the rally.  Today was a fairly typical end-of-week position-evening activities trade for the day.  Buy wheat/sell bean trade was a feature.

Informa released its forecast today:

Brazil soy output:  98.5 mmt         Corn:  78.9 mmt
Argentine soy output:  55 mmt

US
They pegged US whiter winter wheat output at 214 mln bu, SRW at 353 mln bu, HRW at 882 mln bu and winter wheat at 1.448 bln bu. 

SOY
Soybeans, meal and soyoil futures moved higher with July contracts posting new contract highs at 11.69 and Nov beans at 10.94.  However the new highs were also met by players wiling to take a profit into a long weekend and what appears to be a nice weather for planting.  July /Dec meal inverses weakened from a $47.10 high down to lows at 31.60 as traders booked profits on the run-up. July /Nov beans were down 15c plus from a high at 76 1/4c down to 46 1/4c.  Canola prices started the day higher but turned lower as beans fell.  Soyoil spreads were wider with Jul /Dec trading out to 67 pts.

GRAINS
July wheat prices firmed today on shortcovering with prices now operating at the upper end of the trading range and coming closer to the $5.00 benchmark.  Jul corn set a new high at 4.18 1/4c but continues to find pressure as new highs are applied.  Producers keep selling a fair amount of corn and funds were not buying for this day.  July wheat/corn traded up to 78c with a low at 68 3/4.   Corn spreads were a bit weaker with July /Dec trading down 1 to 2 3/4c carry, with Sep/Dec corn spreads at 1/2c-1 1/2c carry.

AT 12:00 THE MARKETS ARE MIXED
                                         HI                     LO
July beans:     dn 15         11.69             11.27 1/2  *new ctr high  
July meal:      dn 4.90      432.50           411.50      *new ctr high
July soyoil:    up 10         3267              3212
July corn:       up 1/2        4.18 1/4         4.10 1/2
July wheat:     up 7 1/2    4.94                4.82 1/4
July canola:   dn .80        524.90            518.70

Fund recap
bot 4000 wheat
sold 7000 beans
bot 1000 soyoil

OUTSIDE MARKETS
The Dow opened down 57 pts. but continued to head lower on the surprisingly weaker jobs report.

CLOSING COMMENTS
For today we have appeared to reach a high, but it could be temporary.  July beans would have to break and close under 10.40 to set a top - but they could probably back up to 10.95/11.00 and still be good for trading range definition and not the start of a larger pullback.  Look for mid-range closes probably from corn, beans, and meal denoting congestion trade unless a few more traders want out of short wheat by the close.   

Next week we get crop progress and begin to see whether the crops improved or not.  Corn ratings last week were 72% good/excellent, and bean ratings will be released on Monday.

Have a great weekend......

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