CBOT Closing 9Jun2016

CBOT Jun 9
  Last  changes
SMN  413.5 -3.6
SMQ  409 -1.4
SMU  406.6 -0.6
SMV  404 -0.6
SMZ  403.5 -0.3
SMF7  399 +0.4
SMH7  375.4 +2.6
SN  1176 -1.75
SQ  1172 -1
SU  1159.75 +0.5
SX  1152.75 +2.5
SF7  1148.25 +3.25
SH7  1114.25 +6
BON  33.03 +0.14
BOQ  33.17 +0.15
BOU  33.3 +0.15
CN  426.5 -4.75
CU  430.5 -4.25
CZ  433.5 -3.5
WN  510.25 -9.25
WU  521.5 -9
WZ  539.5 -8.75

EARLY CALL
Crush values have been active.  Dec crush is trading slightly lower today at 1.09c/bu while oilshare trends back to 29% on soyoil's morning weakness versus steady to higher meal values.  

PALM OIL - down 4 ringgits

NEWS
Crude oil is weaker to begin the day along with the Dow.  The US dollar is firmer. 

REPORTS
Export sales:
beans:  15/16 net 758,500 tons and 16/17 net 475,500 tons (in line with estimates)
meal:     15/16 net 44,300 tons and 16/17 net 136,700 tons (lower than estimates)
soyoil:   15/16 net 14,500 tons and 16/17 net 177,600 tons (in lien with estimates)
corn:       15/16 net 1.56 ton and 16/17 net 120,400 tons (above estimates)
wheat:    15/16 net 23,800  tons and 16/17 net 223,800 tons ( in line with estimates.

EIA reported weekly ethanol production increased from 960,000 barrels per day to
1,006,000 barrels per day, the level needed to reach the USDA's 2015/16 corn grind estimates at 5250 mln bu. 

US broiler eggs set:  99% of a year ago levels
US broiler chicks placed:  99% of year ago levels

Calls today are mixed with modest profit-taking from current trading range highs for beans, wheat, and corn:

beans: 2-4 lower
meal;  20-30 higher
soyoil:  5-10 lower
corn: 2-3 lower
wheat:  4-6 lower
canola:  2.50 lower

BUSINESS
USDA reported 116,360 tons of corn sold to unknown in 2015/16

ANNOUNCEMENTS
Brazil's CONAB cut bean production to 95.6 mmt vs. 96.9 mmt a month ago
Brazil's CONAB cut corn production to 76.2 mmt vs. 80.0 mmt a month ago

The cuts actually may be built in to price action as funds use the markets to adjust positions in front of tomorrow's report.     

TECHNICALS
July beans: hit a trading range high yesterday at 11.89 1/4 on good turnover.  The lowest end of the trading range now becomes 10.40, while the overhead resistance level is yet to be defined since we continue to post new highs.  The market is overbot with relative strength at 72% (anything over 70% is overbought), but the current strength remains strong with an ADX at 45- signaling that the correct way to trade this market is to continue to go with the trend and buy breaks.  Double lows at 11.00 represent a hard break but on a setback the middle ground between 11.00-11.90 is 11.45 and that should hold a break if we even go there.  If the market rallies to new highs, trendline resistance comes into play at 11.93. 

first support:   11.70
key trendline resistance:  11.93
possible range: much the same or lower

July meal:  trading range top is 432.50, and the market is consolidating in a pennant formation, which just means the market is trying to define reasonable highs and lows.  For the day, trendline support is located at 409.00 and if we hold it on a setback would imply we go back towards our overall trading range high at 432.50.  For the night we started to approach 409.00 but it looks like a place of interest for owning more than a sale.

key trendline support:  409.00
first support: 414.00
resistance:  422.00/425.00
possible range: 416.00-422.00 or higher