CBOT closing 19 May 2016

CBOT May 19
Lastchanges
SMN378.1+5.4
SMQ371.8+3.2
SMU368.3+2.6
SMV364+2
SMZ362.4+1.4
SMF7358.5+1.2
SMH7347.7+1.1
SN1071.5-3.75
SQ1073-4
SU1062-4
SX1053.5-4
SF71051.25-5.25
SH71032-4.75
BON31.91-0.54
BOQ32.03-0.53
BOU32.15-0.53
CN390.00-9.5
CU392.50-9.75
CZ397.25-8.75
WN468.75-11.25
WU479.50-10.5
WZ497.50-8.5

GOOD MORNING,
Prices are lower across the board this morning.  Beans and meal prices are working lower but the pronounced weakness is being led by soyoil futures, off by over 50 pts to begin the day.  Soyoil prices are now under all support and moving averages, while meal futures are just a stone's throw away from contract highs.  July oilshare traded down to new lows of .30%.  In the meantime, grains continue to move with corn hanging close to the top of recent values while wheat markets chop sideways. 

Since it's Thursday we do get export sales for a new fundamental input.  Soyoil sales and beans were good, but today the market has a "get -me - out " feel, working to the lower end of trading ranges except for meal.  Wheat futures are in the lead to the downside with poor export sales in general for grains.

Calls are lower across the board and get the sense that this may be a more difficult day to recoup losses as weather is going to turn warmer and drier from here - bumping up planting progress next week

-Strategie Grains cut its forecast for the European Union's year-end stocks for wheat even as corn stocks continue to swell.  The increased demand for EU wheat was at corn's expense as farmers chose the cheaper grain for animal feed.
-The Dow is opening lower with another plane missing in what could be a terrorist act.  
-In USA, the number of people seeking jobless aid fell last week by 16,000 to 278,000.

The markets opened lower as called but once again meal prices traded into new contract highs on the board as soyoil futures traded down to new lows.  Grains were weaker with warmer and drier forecasts creating a round of profit-taking on bullish corn bets.

SOY
The major feature in the soy complex was higher meal.  The July contract jumped to new contract highs at 378.50 as more uncovered consumers have to get something on the books.  The chart formation continues to look the friendliest for this market, continuing to trade in an uptrend channel and posting new contract highs on good volume.  Funds purchased meal against soyoil, which pressured July oilshare below 30% to .2964%.  July crush values jumped to 1.11c/bu as meal prices traded upward.   More bullspreading was noted with July /Dec meal inverses strengthening to 16.20 and July /Nov beans trading stronger again to a 21 1/4c high from opening values that were closer to 15c  July beans briefly broke key support at 10.62 triggering small sell-stops, but today's decent recovery negates the impact of that break.

Corn and wheat values were lower today as conditions appear to warm and dry out for the balance of the week.  Trade turned extremely technical as farmers took advantage of the $4.00 level in July corn to get something on the books.  As support points were breeched the funds began to throw out more of the recent length with not as much pricing activity.  CBOT wheat values dropped lower versus lesser losses in KC contracts.  Spreads weakened with the July /Dec corn carry widening back out to 7 1/4c from 5 1/2c lows.

FUND RECAP
sold 6000 wheat  (from 5000 earlier)
sold 17,000 corn  (from 13,000 earlier)
sold 6000 beans  (from 4000 earlier)
bot 2000  meal (from bot 1000 earlier)
sold 8000 soyoil  (from sold 6000 earlier)

OUTSIDE MARKETS
The Dow opened 48 pts loewr and stayed in the red for most of the day, off 89 pts by midday.  The strengthening US dollar was one of the major catalysts for lower Ag trade today.  The chance that we could see an interest rate increase (which would strengthen the US dollar further) played into more downside as much as improving weather forecasts.

CLOSING COMMENTS
Meal prices seem to live in a world of their own, as they jump to daily new highs.  Expect that the good close today may see follow-through in meal in tonight's session.  Oilshare continues sloppy and traders continue to chase meal while selling soyoil on weaker palm prices.  Soyoil charts point to true definition of a top in place.  Bean charts continue to bend but do not break. Continue to own corrective pullbacks in beans and if corn gets into the ground more buy bean/sell corn price action.

CBOT closing 18 May 201y

CBOT May 18
Lastchanges
SMN372.7+3.6
SMQ368.6+2.1
SMU365.7+0.9
SMV362-0.4
SMZ361-1.2
SMF7357.3-2.1
SMH7346.6-1.5
SN1075.25-5
SQ1077-5.5
SU1066-7.75
SX1057.5-9.75
SF71056.5-8
SH71036.75-6.75
BON32.45-0.33
BOQ32.56-0.33
BOU32.68-0.33
CN399.50+2.5
CU402.25+2.5
CZ406.00+2.25
WN480.00-1.75
WU490.00-1.25
WZ506.00+0

Prices are lower this morning with most commodities and equities in the red - in other words looks a little like a macro day of across- the -board selling activity.  The Dow is slightly lower as one begins to ponder if we are at the start "sell in May and walk away" trading activity.

Though July meal will begin lower, it did manage to post a new high for the move upward at $372.70.  Bullish meal trade pulled beans along for the ride.  Unlike its neighbor, July beans met trendline resistance during the night session at $10.88 and will open lower.  Last night's price action, unlike other sessions, did feel a bit more "toppy" in nature, despite meal's ability to place a new high.  Soyoil futures and wheat continue to be the weakest charts in terms of price activity.  Weaker soyoil charts this morning drove July oilshare below 31% to .3053%.  But as July soyoil nears 32c we could begin to see traders flip-flop taking advantage of lower soyoil prices to get something booked.

Crude oil traded up to new highs at $48.03/ barrel while the US dollar is a touch firmer,  As stated before the Dow is called lower but hopefully calmer heads will prevail and we can spin a more positive tone to this market Fed comments depending.
The markets opened lower on the day but meal prices rebounded taking out the highs in the night session.  July soyoil prices recovered after testing lows close to 32c.  Corn prices also responded trading on both sides of unchanged.

SOY
The soy complex started lower but meal quickly found support at lower levels of trade to post new contract highs.  July oilshare dropped to new lows as soyoil values struggled to find support around the 32c level.  But good commercial pricing activity in July at 32c kept values well supported during the AM session.  July oilshare pushed down to lows of .3041% as meal pushed to new contract highs.  Meal's rally strengthened July crush which put in active trade with levels climbing upward to 1.00c/bu.  Canola prices started the day lower and even though good rains are forecast for areas that need them prices were also following the path of others from lower values to higher on the day.  Later in the session bean and meal inverses strengthened with July /Nov bouncing from lows of 10 1/2 up to 19 1/4c inverse and July /Dec meal up $4.60 to trade back to $12.60 from opening lows of $6.60.

GRAINS
Corn and wheat started the day lower but higher meal and more shortcovering in wheat took prices above unchanged - higher for the day.  Fund buying in both emerged as prices cleared yesterday's higher levels for Jul corn at $3.98.  Warmer and drier weather forecasts were keeping farmers in the fields and away from the board as prices for corn and wheat rallied to levels previously noted.  That allowed July corn to confirm a higher rally without much problem once the $3.98 level was taken out to trade slightly over $4.00 towards previous highs at 4.07 1/4c. 

fund recap
bot 6000 beans
sold 3000 soyoil

CBOT Closing 17 May 2016

CBOT May 17
Lastchanges
SMN369.1+7.9
SMQ366.5+7.8
SMU364.8+7.6
SMV362.4+7.1
SMZ362.2+6.5
SMF7359.4+5.8
SMH7348.1+4.8
SN1080.25+15.75
SQ1082.5+15.75
SU1073.75+14.25
SX1067.25+12.25
SF71064.5+10.75
SH71043.5+9.25
BON32.78-0.01
BOQ32.89-0.01
BOU33.01-0.01
CN397.00+3
CU399.75+3.75
CZ403.75+3.75
WN481.75+7
WU491.25+7.25
WZ506.00+7

The markets seem to be focused right now on two things - making sure the corn crop goes in under timely circumstances, and how much of the bean and corn crops are going out the door for exports.  NOPA crush reported as expected but it is the second largest crush for the month of April, with processors now owning ample stocks courtesy of our recent rallies.   

This morning prices are bouncing back after consolidating over the last few days.  Jul meal prices are within a stone's throw of recent contract highs at 367.70.  If July beans trade back over $10.75 will send us directionally higher as well, suggesting we could make another run at recent tops. The corn price action remains the weakest when it approaches its key major resistance, and for the July contract that price is $3.95, the place where most current rallies have failed.

The Dow is going to begin weaker this morning, though crude oil penciled in new highs at $48.42/gallon today.  When will the public begin to view crude oil as expensive again?  Probably when gasoline prices cross $3.00/gallon.

This week's weather is wet and cool, but the farmers made some progress given the drier weather a week ago.  Corn planting progress was 75% complete, at the highest end of trade idea.  The eastern cornbelt remains challenged while the west and the north were full speed ahead.  Spring wheat conditions are progressing with 89% complete, while the southern plains continues to receive good rainfall keeping the HRW crop in good shape.  Bean plantings remain in line with recent averages at 36% complete, ahead of the five year average at 32%.

The soy complex opened higher and quickly rallied upward led by surging meal values that printed new contract highs for the move.  Grains followed at a slower pace.  There are no new announcements, stories or rumors other than chartists continuing to respond to technical considerations in terms of the higher price action.
   
SOY
The soy complex opened higher and the chart that had the most suggestive upside potential (meal) did indeed rally and post a new high for the move upward.  July oilshare collapsed further as meal rallied against soyoil price action, breaking the 31% level to trade to .3080%.  July crush strengthened further to 92c/bu.  Bullspreading activity for beans took the July /Nov inverse back up to a 13 1/4c high bouncing off a 9c low for the move downward from overall highs of 28c.  Oil spreads widened trading out to 58 pts for July /Dec soyoil spreads while the July /Dec meal spread inverted to stronger values at $7.50.  All in all the price action again was firm illustrating why funds continue to own more bean and meal length.

GRAINS
Stronger soy complex price action created more short-covering in wheat, where the July contract traded past $4.80 triggering small buy-stops in the process.  Wheat gained against corn with the July wheat/corn spread trading up to 87 3/4c from lows at 80 1/4c.  CBOT wheat values were stronger than KC.    July corn setbacks were viewed as buying opportunities, while trade past key resistance of 3.95 set off more technical buying signals.

Fund recap
bot 3000 wheat
bot 4000 corn
bot 7000 beans
bot 3000 meal
bot 1000 soyoil

CLOSING COMMENTS
The markets have been firm all day as funds come back to buy more.  Today does not feel like a "fall apart" day, as farmers sell into fund ownership.  Those waiting for setbacks are now coming in to price something.  If wanting to be short have to still pick the market that appears ready to always slide lower first to new lows which includes wheat and soyoil.  For the others, think we hold onto our strong tone into day's end.

CBOT closing 16 May 2016

CBOT May 16
Lastchanges
SMN361.2-1.8
SMQ358.7-2.3
SMU357.2-2.5
SMV355.3-2.7
SMZ355.7-2.7
SMF7353.6-1.9
SMH7343.3-0.4
SN1064.5-0.5
SQ1066.75-0.25
SU1059.5+0
SX1055+0.5
SF71053.75+2
SH71034.25+4.25
BON32.79+0.29
BOQ32.90+0.29
BOU33.02+0.3
CN394.00+3.25
CU396.00+2.75
CZ400.00+1.75
WN474.75+0
WU484.00+0
WZ499.00-0.25

On Monday's we often tend to trade "positions" from the commitment-of-trader's report last Friday.  Today was no exception with the futures /options positions for beans (on the long side) nearing the 200,000 mark, and funds adding to meal length.  The markets opened lower and more profit-taking from the bull traders in beans and meal set the tone for the day.  Higher crude oil and palm values supported soyoil.

At 10:00 export inspections were released as follows:
corn:  1,110,600 tons vs. 1,148,155 tons wk ago
wheat:  367,881 tons vs. 500,309 tons wk ago
beans:  194,637 tons vs. 146,040 tons  wk ago

- Rallies today were taken as an opportunity to get rid of some length in the bean and meal market though bean /corn inspections were neutral and wheat low end. 

- Informa was released with US soybean acreage forecast at 83 mil acres in 2016 and corn acreage at 93.4 mil.  This compared to USDA at 82.2 mil for beans and 93.6 mil for corn. 

SOY
Soybeans and meal traded lower on the day as worse weather for corn planting this week which could spell more potential bean acres in the future.  Soyoil prices were higher by 25 pts lifting oil-share back towards  3130-315%.  At 11:00 the April NOPA crush values were released which were just about what the market anticipated at 147.6 mil bu, but year on year it is the second highest April on record.  Soyoil stockpiles grew to a larger-than-expected 1.94 bil pounds, over the upper end of trade estimates.

GRAINS
Buy corn /sell bean trade was the noted feature of the morning.  Farmers are now getting concerned about getting the last portion of their corn crops in the ground given wet and cool forecasts.  But the trade is also responding to technical price action, where July corn traded upwards towards previous trading range resistance in the July contract at $3.95.  Funds are not long as much corn as beans, and are a net wheat short.    The July /Dec corn spreads narrowed into 6 3/4c carry from 8c carry, while July /Dec wheat traded to 24c.  July wheat/corn traded to 79c with wheat values down 4 as compared to a steady corn market. July corn now has the lion's share of the total open interest standing at 612,958 contracts followed by December at 320,414 contracts.  
- Crude oil is trading to new highs with an endorsement from Goldman Sachs that the major direction from this point forward will be higher.  Macros are positive.  Feels like weaker markets may turn and trade higher after the open with more large positions on the longer rather than shorter side of the market.

- USDA reported the sale of 128,000 tons of corn sold to South Korea in 2015/16.
                                                                                                                                                                       
- The Dow opened slightly weaker but quickly traded higher on the day, up 159 pts by the midday crude oil rallies to new trading range highs at $47.85/barrel.

Weather for the Midwest is cool and wet with temperatures beginning to warm into the end of the week.  There was actually snowfall in Minnesota, though it has to now be the last for the year.  The advertised number for corn planting progress this afternoon is around 70/75% vs. a 70% average.  Planting progress for beans is expected to be around 33/37% complete vs. a 31% average.  As far as Brazil's corn crop worries continue to mount over the size of the safrinha area with conditions continuing dry.  

In terms of overall positions, it appears as though funds reduced their net long positions in corn prior to the May WASDE while maintaining a short position in wheat.  The USDA supported the validity of being short wheat, and futures in this market remain stubbornly close to the overall low end of the range. 

Fund recap
sold 2000 wheat
sold 4000 beans
bot 2000 soyoil
sold 5000 meal

CBOT closing 13 May 2016

CBOT May 13
Lastchanges
SMK361-5.8
SMN363-1.4
SMQ361-1.6
SMU359.7-2
SMV358-2
SMZ358.4-1.9
SMF7355.5-1.2
SK1055-9.5
SN1065-7
SQ1067-7
SU1059.5-7
SX1054.5-6.75
SF71051.75-6.5
BOK32.17-0.13
BON32.50-0.07
BOQ32.17-0.13
CK382.00-3.25
CN390.75+1.75
WK465.00+6.5
WN474.75+6.75

Soybean trade lower with volatile trade continuing with momentum turning lower from the report day with trade trying to consolidate. Meal is lower and oil is flat. Crush margins have seen pressure from a big slide in oil prices after big export sales announced earlier in the week. The USDA announced 420k mt of soybeans sold to unknown split between old and new crop. Resistance on July beans is at the $10.91 high post report, then $11. Support is at the $10.48 10-day then the $10.30 20-day, giving trade a pretty wide range between support and resistance.

Corn trade is higher with trade finding some light buying during the day session. US weather looks cooler and wetter in the near term which should be mildly supportive with slower planting and growth into the middle of next week. Brazil remains fairly dry in the near term, which should support export business from the US. Basis has been fairly stable to firmer this week. Ethanol margins remain fairly stable today with ethanol and unleaded hanging together in the upper end of the range, a little weaker overnight.
   Wheat trade higher across the three contracts with some profit taking vs recent shorts. The dollar is sharply higher this morning, which should limit buying enthusiasm. World weather for wheat remains mostly non-threatening for the moment with growing optimism in about conditions in Russia.

Weekly review:  The week has been more than the same old, as beans and meal busted through highs once again, this week the crop report was if not the catalyst, the day of a vicious rally.  Oil share sets further, and hard to believe that it has made a contract low, as is down 2% for the week.  Post report has turned the bid into corn and wheat as well, and as beans and meal hold gains, there seems to be a bit of price recovering in corn vs the beans that it could be argued more to come.  But that of course is likely up to the meal market, as futures continue to soar, against a staid US meal basis, that, while implies delivery's, it has not happened.  Seems the hysteria over ending stocks, for the most part 2015-2016, that the market digested on report day, the old crop draw down of 40 mil bushels must prove that this will get done, in the midst of lowest exports to date in over 10 years.  Maybe that is what July-Nov speaks of this week, as is down 3 cents for the week while July beans are up 30.  Meanwhile May goes off the board today with May-July beans at 80% of full carry, May-July oil pays 3.5%, and of course May-July meal trades inverse, as the only commodity that has not seen deliveries against the May this month.  Carries abound in all, accept meal, as prices imply.....shortage, but of what?

CBOT closing 12 May 2016

CBOT May 12
Lastchanges
SMK366.8+2.4
SMN364.4+2.4
SMQ362.6+2.1
SMU361.7+2.4
SMV360+2.5
SMZ360.3+2.6
SMF7356.7+2.6
SK1064.5-5.25
SN1072-6.25
SQ1074-6.25
SU1066.5-5.25
SX1061.25-4.75
SF71058.25-5
BOK32.30-0.78
BON32.57-0.79
BOQ32.68-0.77
CK385.25+11.25
CN389.00+11.5
WK458.50+9
WN468.00+9

Soybean trade lower with trade shedding early gains with a sharp break in soyoil prices leading trade lower. Meal and oil are lower. The Chinese market has seen a substantial rally in meal values, helping to pressure oil. The weekly export sales were softer at 212,400 metric tons of old-crop soybeans, 6,900 of new, 115,300 of meal, and 16,700 of oil. Resistance on July beans is at the $10.91 high post report, then $11. Support is at the $10.46 10-day then the $10.25 20-day, giving trade a pretty wide range between support and resistance.

Corn trade higher with trade hanging together despite the reversal in the soybean trade. US weather looks cooler and wetter in the near term which should be mildly supportive with slower planting and growth. Brazil remains fairly dry in the near term. Basis has been fairly stable this week and should hold together pretty well. Ethanol margins remain
fairly stable today with ethanol and unleaded hanging together in the upper end of the range.  Weekly export sales were solid at 1.14 mil mt of old crop, and 150.4k of new crop. The USDA also announced 210k mt of corn sold to Saudi Arabia. On the July chart we are just below the $3.83 20-day, the 200-day at $3.85 1/2 is the highest major moving average. Support is now at the $3.74 100-day.

Wheat trade higher across the three contracts with trade following the lead of corn. The dollar failed to hold the rally this morning, adding a bit of support. World weather for wheat remains mostly non-threatening for the moment. The weekly export sales were mixed at 294,400 metric tons of old crop, and 387,900 of new crop. The July Kansas City chart has resistance at the $4.59 10-day with support limited due to our downside
momentum that has only been stopped by spillover support from the row crops this week

CBOT closing 11 May 2016

CBOT May 11
Lastchanges
SMK364.4+4
SMN362+2.3
SMQ360.5+2.2
SMU359.3+1.9
SMV357.5+2.2
SMZ357.7+2.1
SMF7354.1+1.4
SK1069.75-6.25
SN1078.25-5.75
SQ1080.25-5.25
SU1071.75-3.25
SX1066-1.5
SF71063.25-1.25
BOK33.08-0.05
BON33.36-0.08
BOQ33.45-0.1
CK374.00-4.5
CN377.50-3.5
WK449.50-2
WN459.00-2.25

The May report was fuel for the soybean market that locked limit up and posted new highs in the July contract at $10.91 1/2 with July meal at a new high of $367.40 .  The catalyst was smaller South American crops and a 2016/17 ending stocks number at 305 mil bu.  In reality, 305 mil bu does not imply there are shortages, but it does sound a lot smaller when compared against previous 405/450 mil bu ending stocks.  So the funds embraced the new reality and bought a boatload of beans, sending prices sharply higher.  Farmers responded in kind, selling a fresh amount of product at these new and surprising highs. 

In the meantime, the corn and wheat markets stayed in their lane with numbers more in line with estimates.  However the USDA was surprisingly aggressive acknowledging better corn exports (like good bean exports), which kept prices well supported.   But the price action in corn and certainly wheat by no means is matching bean price action which appears to now be in its own world.  Wheat is the brick in terms of price action, barely moving off its lows which could indicate a downhill slide when the soy complex weakens. 

In the meantime we are still dealing with a Brazil Safrinha corn that is edging lower by all private estimations.  Wheat is the brick of the Ag space, sitting at its lows and refusing to budge higher.  As to South American numbers; the USDA was rather modest about lowering the size of the crop altogether with Brazilian bean production at 99mil mt while most private analysts are sitting at 96mil mt.  Even Brazil's 81mil mt corn number seemed too high.  So there possibly could be more damage to be factored into this market price.

The market opened cautiously with profit-taking after yesterday's bean and meal run-up in terms of price action.  Wheat prices weakened along with corn. 

SOY
Soybean and meal prices worked backwards into yesterday's rally but the setback was fairly shallow considering the size of the run-up.  Meal spreads tightened with July/Dec inverse trading to $4.00.  The July /Nov bean inverse traded up to 19c but values faded back to a 12 1/2c inverse.   As meal and bean prices retraced its rally, soyoil futures remained more stable with crude oil's rally up to $46.13 /barrel and more business announcements for soyoil going to China and unknown.  July and November bean volatility rose to 29% and 25%, respectively with the rally

GRAINS
Wheat prices opened on a firm note but soon turned lower on the day down towards overall contract lows. The May WASDE was most bearish for wheat, with world reserves forecast to climb to a record 257mil mt by the end of 2016/17.  Kansas City losses were in the lead down 6 with CBOT prices trending down 3.  Corn was also seeing a fair amount of weakness with the July contract turned away from key resistance at $3.86 as it worked back again towards its 100 day moving average at $3.73.  Farmers continue to plant corn and it's always tough to keep corn prices up when planting begins.  The July /Dec wheat spread traded into 27 3/4 carry while corn spreads were wider with July /Dec trading out to 7 1/4c.

CBOT Apr13 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat

CBOT Apl 13
Last changes
SMK 292.7 +7.6
SMN 295.2 +7.6
SMQ 296.1 +7.3
SMU 297.1 +7.3
SMV 297.7 +7.1
SMZ 299.8 +7.1
SMF7 300.1 +7
SK 955.75 +19.5
SN 964.5 +19.75
SQ 966.25 +19.5
SU 964.75 +19
SX 966 +18.25
SF7 970 +18.25
BOK 33.96 +0.27
BON 34.24 +0.28
BOQ 34.33 +0.27
CK 373.50 +10.75
CN 377.00 +11.5
WK 461.50 +9
WN 467.50 +8.75

Soybeans continue to rock and roll to the upside, tacking on further gains and new highs this morning making this rally a no-doubter.   Since moving through the 200 day moving average to the upside, funds have embraced the long side of the bean ledger with the March 31 planting report giving them the key reason to jump on the bull bandwagon.  Additional news for the bean bull was released in yesterday's General Administration of Customs of China who reported that their bean imports climbed to 6.1 million tonnes, a record for March due to more attractive hog breeding margins.

US farmers were good sellers on the bean rally yesterday but the stronger Brazilian currency has shut off any selling from the Brazilian farmer.  President Rousseff will meet her fate as to impeachment on April 17th when the lower house will vote on her future.  And the Argentine farmer, who was expected to flood the market with beans after Macri's election, has been only a steady but lighter than expected seller to the market.  Thus the bean rally remains firm without a lot of motivated sellers but viewed by chartists as a rally with legs.

Soybeans opened higher and continued to stay in steady - to -higher trade through the morning.  Meal prices hit a new high in the May contract at 292.20, while bean prices struggled to get over the major benchmark at $9.50.  Crush values improved further in the morning with prices trading from 63c/bu to 64c/bu.  Continued wet weather in Argentina is problematic for meal shippers delaying harvest and adding to questionable quality.   Meanwhile a still firmer Brazilian currency (courtesy of impeachment talks) is shutting off South American farmer selling on this bean rally.  As opposed to the S. American farmer, the US farmer continues to sell both old and new crop.   May soyoil values remained steady but started to trade lower on the day as traders continue to unwind previous buy soyoil / sell meal trade.  Oilshare continued to lose more than 2% trading again to a corrective setback that took July down to 36.60%.

GRAINS
In the meantime the new shorts added to corn last week are underwater once again (they sold the market heavily after the March 31 report) as grains follow the soy complex rally though grudgingly so.  Would have to say that the corn market now has some weather premium built into it, though the concern is still situated in Brazil where hot and dry conditions persist while the Safrina crop pollinates.  Too wet concerns still exist in Argentina.  

The corn market opened higher and triggered buy-stops when prices traded over key resistance at $3.71.  The rally probably stemmed from recent shorts once again having to get out of the market to be told by open interest changes if they decrease tomorrow.  For today the trade remains technical as corn prices try to stay in step with beans.  Wheat prices also came back from near contract lows with the chart moving above key resistance at $4.58 which triggered more buy-stops as well.  The July wheat / corn spread traded to new lows at 91c.  Spreads strengthened further with July / Dec corn moving intro a 5 1/4c carry.

Fund recap
bot 5000 wheat
bot 15,000 corn
bot 7000 beans
bot 2000 meal
bot 2000 soyoil

The Dow opened 62 pts higher today and continued to maintain a bias to the upside trading over 140 pts higher.  Crude oil traded to new highs at $42.42/barrel.

CLOSING COMMENTS
Fundamentally this rally has left many scratching their heads in lieu of more than ample world supply.  Nothing has changed much to explain price action except perhaps money flows.  Perhaps the Ag space is being viewed as a good investment space for now given the 3 year cycle down.   Nonetheless the short has been squeezed in this market, and sometimes where there is smoke there is fire.  Is the weather in Brazil worse than calculated and will the rains in Argentina begin to slow?  Think that the market is just saying now that all the bearish factors have been noted, but suspect we are getting very close to the upper end of trading ranges with this recent rally

CBOT Apr12 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat

CBOT Apl 12
Last changes
SMK 285.1 +5
SMN 287.6 +5.1
SMQ 288.8 +5.1
SMU 289.8 +5
SMV 290.6 +5.1
SMZ 292.7 +5.2
SMF7 293.1 +5
SK 936.25 +8
SN 944.75 +8
SQ 946.75 +7.75
SU 945.75 +7.5
SX 947.75 +7
SF7 951.75 +7
BOK 33.69 -0.21
BON 33.96 -0.22
BOQ 34.06 -0.22
CK 362.75 +6
CN 365.50 +5.75
WK 452.50 +5.25
WN 458.75 +4.5

The story of the morning is higher soybean trade with the May contract traveling to new chart highs at 9.36 1/4c.  Funds continue to buy beans as 1) a hedge against their huge fund short in grains and 2) as a continued reaction to the nearly 93.6 million acres of corn stated would be planted March 31. Beans are reaching out to the farmer through price, with the last of the fund short in meal heading out the door.  The other feature remains the unwinding of previous buy soyoil / sell meal trade which is pushing the soyoil market to bottom support levels.  Oilshare is correcting after trading over 39% back to 37.24%.

In terms of reports, we have planting progress which was lower for winter wheat and perhaps better than expected for corn given all the rains.  Corn progress was 4% complete versus the five year average of 5%.  Winter wheat conditions were down 3% - but then again they were surprisingly better than expected last week.  The big ticket item here is weather in the plains and not the numbers received today.  If the big rain event over HRW areas hits, we could see more pressure applied in grains.

PALM OIL - April down 23 ringgits on more selling pressure / profit-taking.  Small cash trades noted

Stocks are called higher today with the US dollar slightly firmer and gold prices higher.  

Planting progress
corn:  4% planted versus 5% average

Winter wheat:  56% good/excellent  - down 3% from last week.  This is still better than a year ago when conditions were 42%

Trade is focused on good rains forecast across the plains this weekend

CBOT Apr11 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat

CBOT Apl 11
Last changes
SMK 280.1 +6.4
SMN 282.5 +6.4
SMQ 283.7 +6.4
SMU 284.8 +6.1
SMV 285.5 +5.9
SMZ 287.5 +5.6
SMF7 288.1 +5.3
SK 928.25 +11.5
SN 936.75 +11.75
SQ 939 +11.5
SU 938.25 +10.5
SX 940.75 +10
SF7 944.75 +9.5
BOK 33.90 -0.04
BON 34.18 -0.03
BOQ 34.28 -0.04
CK 356.75 -5.5
CN 359.75 -5.25
WK 447.25 -13
WN 454.25 -12.5

Today crop progress will be released for corn, and we begin with a five year average target of 5% planted.  Given rains in the Midwest, doubt that we have a number beyond that.  As to a better correlation  between price action and weather, we have wheat to look at which is lower this morning as rains appear ready to bring relief to dry areas in the southern plains.   Wheat is lower this morning - corn is following.  Longer range forecasts look for drier and warmer weather and farmers have been waiting for the chance to get started on their corn crop.  As to the other corn story dryness continues in Brazil's Safrinha corn crop, and there is no relief in sight.  Corn is slightly lower.

The soy complex is higher today with more buy bean / sell corn trade in an attempt to encourage more farmers to plant beans.   The May bean contract hit a new high today at 9.23 3/4 after it setback but could not break the $9.00 level.  Meal is higher with soyoil struggling.  The uptrend in soyoil futures has been extremely strong, but all eyes were on the MPOB report.   Instead of an all-out surprise, production was noted as better than expected with ending stocks a bit lower.  While the bulls did not get the number they wanted, neither did the bear.  May soyoil futures are a touch weaker but all eyes will be on key support points today which in this case is 3355 should we get there.

The April WASDE will be released tomorrow at 11:00 Chicago time, and export inspections today at 10:00.

There is a symbolic vote today in the afternoon as Brazil's congressional committee convenes to consider a recommendation to impeach President Dilma Rousseff.  This vote is to be followed by a vote in Brazil's lower house of Congress in the following weeks.  In reaction to the turmoil, the Brazilian currency firmed to new highs, a path that will shut down farmer selling activity.  

At 10:00 export inspections were released as follows:
wheat   339,226 vs. 327,881 tons wk ago
corn      1,121,902 vs. 1,091,905 wk ago
bean:    386,786 vs. 226,828 wk ago

May beans found good buying activity on pullbacks, taking the flat-price up to new trading range highs even beyond trendline resistance which for the day was $9.27.  The initial strength put a floor under soyoil, allowing it to trade to 3432 (May).   But considering the record length in soyoil, funds were eying rallies as a way to get out of partial bullish positions.  Strength in meal futures was a key feature as traders bought meal / sold soyoil unwinding that spread.  Oilshare remained weak breaking 38% while crush values firmed to 59/60c/bu on meal's new -found strength.  The Brazilian real continues to firm as more talk circulates that President Rousseff could be impeached.  This morning the currency firmed to $3.52/USD, which is shutting off farmer selling.  Certainly the US farmer is not interested at this point, either....particularly if they are out planting.

CLOSING COMMENTS
Today's weakness in grains / new highs in soy is part technical, part expectations for the USDA report tomorrow, and a whole lot of weather.  Funds are short grains and not wrong.  It is expected that corn plantings will come in 1-2% planted vs. the five year average of 5%.  No big deal....yet.  Wheat conditions were surprisingly resilient last week, but the impact of continuous weeks of dry weather may show up tomorrow creating a turn-around Tuesday into the report.  And speaking of unwinding - get the feeling that the new highs in beans could be high enough for now, or getting awfully close.  Soyoil could struggle with a chart that is beginning to look toppy and must now prove that lower key support can hold.

CBOT Apr8 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat

CBOT Apl8
Last changes
SMK 273.7 +6.9
SMN 276.1 +6.7
SMQ 277.3 +6.5
SMU 278.7 +6.6
SMV 279.6 +6.3
SMZ 281.9 +6.3
SMF7 282.8 +6.1
SK 916.75 +12.25
SN 925 +12.25
SQ 927.5 +11.75
SU 927.75 +11.5
SX 930.75 +11.25
SF7 935.25 +11
BOK 33.94 -0.16
BON 34.21 -0.16
BOQ 34.32 -0.16
CK 362.25 +0.75
CN 365.00 +1
WK 460.25 +3.25
WN 466.75 +2.25

Beans and meal starting the day higher.  Meal begins the day at lower support while soyoil futures are trying to find a place of support after reaching new trading range highs.  With record soyoil length the case, we could see continued weakness triggered by nervous longs who are waiting for the most important report for soyoil to be addressed next Monday.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will address palm production, with current figures about 25% below last year.  Therefore would look for a slight continuation of the buy meal /sell soyoil trend to stay in place until the numbers are released and clarified on Monday.  Mildly supportive to meal is also the fact that Argentina has received extensive rainfall in the last week as harvest continues.  While this week features a drier outlook, rains in Argy may return again.  Soyoil futures are weaker against meal this morning.  The May soyoil low also begins right on key support today meaning that a larger break is going to perhaps create a downside push.

The major feature in the soy complex was that of firmer meal futures against weaker soyoil values.  By the noontime hour, May beans were trading back towards previous trading range highs while meal values rebounded off the lows of the trading range past key resistance at 269.00 which triggered buy-stops and short-covering from funds still holding bearish positions.  May and July oilshare traded down to 38% after rising over 39% on soyoil's previous continuous strength.  Soybean trade firmed towards recent highs as funds added to their overall net long position, balancing it off against a major corn short.  July crush values improved towards 60c/bu on meal's technical rebound.  Spreads strengthened with July /Nov beans trading into a 6c carry.  Traders were buying beans against corn.

Cool wet weather continues to get in the way of corn planting, but next week the outlook begin to head into warmer and drier conditions.  Should that occur, corn futures could begin to weaken once more.  Directionally traders continue to look for places to sell the market, although since the report those that have sold are underwater.  With a cool and rainy forecast this week, would not expect the support under corn to weaken much.  Neither can the market rally given the amount of acres posted for corn (93.6 million) on March 31.

Corn futures congested further but maintained a firm direction.  The chatter under this market is that 1. we have seen more export business as of late due to lower prices and 2. that northern Brazil's second corn crop is now suffering due to extreme dryness.  This is becoming more of an issue as the season moves along and it is attracting more attention as each week passes without rain.  May wheat values traded higher on short-covering.  Traders were back to buying wheat /selling corn once again.

Fund recap
bot 3000 wheat
bot 5000 beans
bot 4000 meal
sold 1000 soyoil

CLOSING COMMENTS
All weather dependent right now.  Feels like the trade has sort of rejected the 93.6 million acres of corn and in the future will be looking at weather both in North and South America given the extreme dryness in Brazil.  We are close to trading range highs in beans, which is really a surprise to many traders.  Think we go out in continuing strength rather than the other way around, as meal shorts clearly want out.  May soyoil may sit and close around 34c refusing to break much but under pressure from traders not willing to buy more until the palm oil production report on Monday is out of the way.  Monday will be an important day for soyoil and in that regard maybe for beans as well.

CBOT Apr1 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat

CBOT Apl 1
Last changes
SMK 272.3 +2
SMN 275.1 +2
SMQ 276.3 +1.9
SMU 277.4 +1.8
SMV 278.3 +1.7
SMZ 280.4 +1.6
SMF7 281.2 +1.6
SK 918.25 +7.5
SN 926 +8.25
SQ 928.5 +8
SU 928.5 +7.75
SX 932.25 +7.5
SF7 936.5 +8
BOK 34.45 +0.23
BON 34.67 +0.23
BOQ 34.78 +0.25
CK 354.00 +2.5
CN 357.75 +2
WK 475.75 +2.25
WN 483.00 +2.25

The markets opened as called with corn lower on more fund selling.  Soyoil values held in with beans during the first part of the session but meal traded lower on the day.   Sell corn and buy beans/ wheat was the fan favorite trade of the day given 93 million acres of corn to be planted this spring.

The soy complex opened higher with beans and soyoil futures trying to set new highs for the day.  May soyoil did manage to notch a new high at 3471 on early fund buying activity before prices turned towards the middle of the trading range.  The weakness in soy came from meal which traded lower on the day after also trying to move over nighttime highs.  Meal's relative weakness against soyoil strength pushed July oilshare to .3883% - new highs since the report yesterday.    More eyes are now centered on the July bean /Dec corn spread given the larger corn acres yesterday.   The spread suggests that more acreage should begin to favor beans over corn.  The Brazilian real continues firm which is shutting down farmer selling as the government decides what to do with the current President.

Corn futures found new contract lows on more fund selling from the start of the day.  Once again the market moved into consumer pricing activity which steadied values at the overall lows.  The contract May wheat is keeping a steady trade against corn with prices not going down and funds not interested in selling give the short they already have.  Wheat values stood their ground today with somewhat impressive price action.  WIth reduced acreage (some coming from smaller winter wheat seedings), and still dry concerns in the Southern plains wheat prices should begin to maintain a steady trading range bias.  
Fund recap
sold 4000 corn
bot 2000 soyoil

CBOT Mar31 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat

CBOT Mar 31
Last changes
SMK 270.3 -1.6
SMN 273.1 -1.5
SMQ 274.4 -1.5
SMU 275.6 -1.4
SMV 276.6 -1.4
SMZ 278.8 -1.2
SMF7 279.6 -1.2
SK 910.75 +1.75
SN 917.75 +1.5
SQ 920.5 +2
SU 920.75 +1.75
SX 924.75 +1.75
SF7 928.5 +2
BOK 34.22 +0.43
BON 34.44 +0.43
BOQ 34.53 +0.43
CK 351.50 -15.5
CN 355.75 -15.75
WK 473.50 +9.5
WN 480.75 +9.25

At 11:00 the report was released:
Corn:       93.6   mil acres vs. average est at 89.9
Soybeans:       82.2   mil acres vs. average est at 83.05
All  Wheat:     49.6   mil acres  vs. average est at 51.702

             Stocks Mar 1
Corn              7.808  vs. average est at 7.801
Soybeans:      1.531  vs. average est at 1.556
Wheat:           1.372 vs. average est at 1.356                  

Shocker:  higher corn acres, much over the higher end of market expectations.  The acreage was price negative for corn futures which quickly posted new contract lows.  Wheat acreage was under expectations with beans more neutral.  More of the volume was in the grain trade as corn prices worked lower.

SOY
Bean, meal, and soyoil prices opened on a steady note and stayed positive into the 11:00 hour, even as grains traded lower on the day.  The report was neutral to bearish for beans, sending prices for the May contract briefly below the $9.00 level.  May soyoil prices traded up to new highs on the numbers at 3437 reinforcing the trend higher.  Oilshare gained as well with July values up to new highs at .3865% as meal prices traded down $1.80 by comparison.   After the report soybeans stayed fairly resilient in terms of price action, with soyoil futures staying the uptrend course in style, rewarding the soyoil long.  May meal fell to key support at 268.00 but did not dip underneath.

Corn and wheat prices were lower on the day awaiting the outcome of the report.  The corn acres were well over the highest end of expectations.  With futures leaning lower before the report, the reaction after the report was a crack in price action to new contract lows for corn.  Wheat prices also collapsed, though the acreage was much more friendly for wheat moving forward. Within a small window of time, wheat futures were higher as traders covered in small short positions.  Traders were also buying wheat / sell corn unwinding previous spreads, with values moving from 95c up to 1.17c.  .  Traders seemed to be shell-shocked by the large corn acreage number, but after the first 45 minutes selling interest seemed to pick up as we hit more new contract lows.

Fund recap
bot 3000 wheat
sold 25,000 corn
bot 2000 soyoil