USDA Crop progress

Corn

The USDA reported that the corn harvest is 6% complete as of Sunday, compared to the five year average of 18% done. The lateness of this season's crop is highlighted in Illinois which is just 2% complete, compared to 28% normally. Maturity continues to run well behind schedule, with just 34% of the crop mature compared to 72% normally. That still appears to leave room for the weather to cause some damage yet, should a killing frost emerge. The percentage of the crop rated good/excellent was unchanged at 68%.

Soybeans

The soybean harvest is even further behind than corn, at 5% complete compared to 18% normally. In Illinois it's 1% done as opposed to 21% normally. Nationally 63% of the crop is dropping leaves compared to 77% normally.

Wheat

Winter wheat planting is 36% complete, only slightly behind normal, with top-producing state of Kansas 23% done as opposed to 33% normally. Second top producer Oklahoma is 33% planted, nine points behind normal. The spring wheat harvest is 94% complete compared to 98% normally.

USDA Weekly Grain Export Inspections (weekend Sept 24,09)

USDA reported Weekly grain export inspections:

Corn = 29.582 million bu. est. 32-38 million
Wheat = 24.02 million bu. est. 18-23 million
Soybean= 7.427 million bu. est. 7-15 million

Data from USDA

China soy demand growing....

Demand for soymeal and soyoil in China still growing from increasing production of poultry and pork. The USDA projected China's soybean imports as 38.5 million tons but trader expected around 40 millions. The China's buying still remain until South America crop coming out.

comment: China's import is support US soy crop and also support price in short term.

USDA Quarterly stock Estimated (1 Oct 09)

The USDA will reported grain quarterly stock on 30 Sep 2009. This is a summary of trade estimated,

1. Corn : Average= 1.719 billion Bushels, range of estimated 1.665-1.803 billion
   
2. Bean : Average= 0.111 billion Bushels, range of estimated 0.09-0.135 billion
3. Wheat : Average= 2.131 billion Bushels, range of estimated 2.065- 2.239 billion

comment : Bean stock is tight may support price for short term but corn and wheat have high stock pile bearish on corn and wheat futures.

India soybean output may rise

India's soybean production may rise to 12 million tons next years. The farmers planted more oil seed after drought condition disappear from major growing area.


Comment: More out put form India may cut sales of soymeal from US and Latin America to Asia. The increasing of world soybean production put pressure on bean prices.

My Cambodia Trip

I have chance to goes to Cambodia for conference with their government. The Agriculture is an important sector in Cambodia most of people are rely on agriculture. They have a lot of Land to grow rice, corn, soybean and other. But the gap between rich and poor is very high. The kid in picture, his family grow corn for land owner recived around $2-3 a day. I don't know much about Cambodia development policy , but It should be good if they focus on income distribution and sustainable growth. There are many NGO work in Cambodia this is list if u want to join them.

Selfsufficient and Sustianable Economy in Thailand

Self sufficient economy was introduced by King Bhumibhol , The King of Thailand. The philosophy was focus on local community and sustainable growth. The development of Thailand should not concentrate only industrial development , Thailand had a very huge export sector it's ratio to GDP about 60-70% in 2008 and it has an very big impacted from current global economics crisis, the way that protect our self from this situation is a Middle way. The middle way that i learn from King Bhumibhop's philosophy is

• The community should have economic structure that provide basic necessity for living and use production technology base on community knowledge. For example the community should have to grow some food for their food security or they will produce goods and service from their local knowledge.
  
• Balance between production and consumption, should not consume more than revenue and not prefer a high consumption debt .
• The community must have to protect the environment for sustainable production and living.

I think we can use the middle way for everything in our everyday life. We has encourage to consume more over than we need by genius marketing campaign so reduce some that should be good. I try to follow the King's philosophy by my green community project to support farmer grow rice in non-toxic process, buy them a good prices, produce high quality GABA rice with local community knowledge and distribute high quality product with reasonable price to customer.

USDA Export Sales

The USDA weekly export sales for the period Sep 4-10, 2009:

Soybeans

Combined sales were 704,400 MT in line with trade expectations of 600-850,000 MT.

Sales of 489,400 MT for the 2009/10 marketing year (which began Sept. 1) were primarily for China (463,400 MT). Sales of 215,000 MT for 2010/11 delivery were for South Korea. Actual export shipments of 263,800 MT were primarily to China (164,400 MT).

Corn

Sales were 965,600 MT, higher than estimates of 550-750,000 MT, including South Korea (268,300 MT), Japan (250,700 MT, including 97,000 MT switched for unknown destinations), Taiwan (226,000 MT) and Mexico (160,300 MT). Actual export shipments of 1,162,500 MT were primary to Japan (448,100 MT), Mexico (143,500 MT), South Korea (116,100 MT), Egypt (109,900 MT) and Taiwan (88,400 MT).

Wheat

Sales of 449,400 MT were in line with trade ideas of 400-500,000 MT. The main homes were Mexico (59,600 MT), Taiwan (54,300 MT), the Philippines (48,800 MT), Panama (45,200 MT), Italy (38,500 MT), unknown destinations (34,700 MT), Nigeria (32,500 MT), and Japan (30,400 MT). Actual exports of 595,900 MT were a marketing-year high. The primary destinations were Japan (109,200 MT), Peru (85,000 MT), Egypt (57,700 MT), South Korea (51,200 MT), the Philippines (48,800 MT), and Venezuela (45,900 MT).

EIA inventory report

The Energy Information Administration reported crude stocks dropped 4.7 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 11.

Analysts had expected a decrease of 3 million barrels, according to a consensus estimated.

Gasoline stockpiles increased by 500,000 barrels, according to the EIA report. Analysts had forecasted an increase of one million barrels.

The government report also showed that distillates, used to make heating oil and diesel, rose by 2.2 million barrels, topping analysts' expectations for a 1.2-million-barrel increase.

Commentary: crude oil stock fall more than expect is another support crude oil price, today crude oil price rose above $71, weak dollar also supported price.

India Aug vegetable oil imports incrase by 4.5%

The Solvent Extractors' Association of India reported august vegetable oil import rose 4.5% to 650,603 tones from aug 2008 (622,831 tons).

Thai rubber price drop

Thailand, the world's lagrest producer and exporter offer rubber prices RSS-3 grade for oct shipment at $2.01 per k.g. down from $2.10. The negative affect from US goverment impose duty of 35% of automoblie tires from China. China is Thailand largest export market, in 2008 Thailand export 820,000 tons to China of overall 2.3 million tons. Import tariff may lead to decline China's tires procution which weight on Thai's rubber export price.

China import soy forcasted to decline in Oct

The China National Grain and Oils Information Centre reported China import soy bean expected to fall in Oct with estimated around 1.8-2 million tons from 2.8 million in sept lowest since sept 2007.

Commentary: another bearish for soybean price in short term.As you know China demand for crushing around 3 million ton per month. The reduction import soybean lead China soy stock become lower .

Brazil will plant soy bean record crop

The expectation of Brazil soybean crop will produce as record. Benefit by firm international soy prices and good wheather forecast. The estimated of new crop production have range between 62-65 million tons.

Commentary: More soy bean production will coming out, Talking a lot of more soy production all around, Harvest pressure still bearish for Soy bean prices.

Crude oil weekly gain

Crude oil (Oct) sattled at 69.29 $/barrel up $1.27 from week ago.

Supported by

• Weak US dollar: USD reach lowest level since Dec.08 against euro. The USD reduce to $1.4621 per euro in New York and euro gain 4.6% against USD this year.
• China Outlook : Out put China factories raise 12.3% from year ago above estimated at 11.8%. China imported crude oil grew 18% in Aug. to 17.93 million tons.

But have bearish factor for next week is high stock and demand concern.

• Very High stock still pressure on oil price. Last week stock crude oil fell 5.91 million barrels to 337.5 million barrels. Gasoline increase 2.07 million to 270.2 million. Distillate climbed 1.99 million barrels to 165.6 million highest since 1983.

China import iron ore go down

China imported iron ore 49.68 million tons in aug. down by 14.5% from july. The steel product export in aug up 15% from july to 2.08 millions tons.

My comment: The international trade improve in short term for restock but not sustain, that pressure on feight rate.

USDA Supply Demand corn and soybean

USDA supply demand reported on 11 Sept 2009:

Corn 09/10:

• Procution= 344.8 M.Tons (from aug = 339.6 M.Tons, 08/09 = 325.9 M.Tons)
• Yield = 3.81 T./Acre (from aug = 3.75 T./Acre, 08/09 = 3.58 T./Acre)
• Domestic use = 289.2 M.Tons (from aug = 287.9 M.Tons, 08/09 = 275.7 M.Tons)
• Export = 59.8 M.Tons (from aug = 57.3 M.Tons, 08/09 = 51 M.Tons)
• Ending stock = 45.6 M.Tons (from aug = 45.3 M.Tons, 08/09 = 47.2 M.Tons)
• Average farm prices = 3.05-3.65 $/Bu. (from aug = 3.1-3.9 $/Bu. , 08/09 = 4.08 $/Bu. )

Soybean 09/10:

• Procution= 3,245 M.Bu. (from aug = 3,199 M.Bu, 08/09 = 2,959 M.Bu)
• Yield = 42.3 Bu./Acre (from aug = 41.7 Bu./Acre, 08/09 = 39.6 Bu./Acre)
• Crushing = 1,690 M.Bu (from aug = 1,670 M.Bu, 08/09 = 1,660 M.Bu)
• Export = 1,280 M.Bu (from aug = 1,265 M.Bu, 08/09 = 1,280 M.Bu)
• Ending stock = 220 M.Bu (from aug = 210 M.Bu, 08/09 = 110 M.Bu)
• Average farm prices = 8.1-10.1 $/Bu. (from aug = 8.4-10.4 $/Bu. , 08/09 = 10 $/Bu. )

My commentay: corn and soybean production increasing, bearish for corn and soybean prices

USDA Export Sales

USDA export sales report of corn, wheat, soybeans and product from exporters for the period August 28-September 3, 2009.

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report
Commodity	Actual sales (Tons)	Trade expectations (Tons)
Corn	1,025,500	550,000 to 750,000
Wheat	636,400	300,000 to 500,000
	551,400 (2009/10)
	85,000 (2010/11)
Soybeans	830,600	450,000 to 650,000
Soymeal	264,600	50,000 to 175,000
	14,800 (2008/09)
	249,800 (2009/10)
Soyoil	17,400	10,000 to 30,000
	9,500 (2008/09)
	7,900 (2009/10)

Source : USDA export highlight

My commentary: Corn sales above trade expectations (support price), Wheat sales above trade expectations but export commitments are 39% behind year ago(pressure on price), Soybean sales above trade expectations export commitments are 92% above last year.(support price)

Malaysia Palm stock raise

The Malaysiam Palm Oil Board reported total palm oil inventories rose 6.2% to 1.42 million tons, export decline 9.5% to 1.32 million tons and production and production 105,000 tonnes lower(yoy) , after dry weather for much of the year.

My commentary: production increased and export goes down that put presure on palm oil price also other vegetable oil.

China Cut Corn Wheat and Soybean forecast

The China national grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) cut corn,soybean and wheat output forecast. Most of China growing areas have been hurt by drought. They cut corn production by 1 M.Tons to 165.5 M.Tons, wheat by 0.55 M.Tons to 114.95 M.Tons and soybeans by 0.5 M.Tons to 14.5 M.Tons.

China run higher refined in sept

Top China refineries raise their crude oil processor in Sept. The volumn represent around 89% of their total refine capacity.

Plant Sept Aug Cap.

Zhenhai 0.389 0.381 0.4

Maoming 0.243 0.28 0.27

Qilu 0.206 0.214 0.23

Gaoqiao 0.214 0.211 0.23

Guangzhou 0.226 0.235 0.27

Jinling 0.250 0.247 0.27

Dalian 0.343 0.341 0.41

Lanzhou 0.211 0.211 0.20

Fujian 0.182 0.131 0.24

Jinzhou 0.138 0.141 0.14

Jinxi 0.06 0.049 0.150

WEPEC 0.187 0.183 0.200

TOTAL 2.65 2.63 2.98