CBOT Feb 26
Last changes
SMH 257.2 -2.8
SMK 260.6 -2.1
SMN 263.3 -1.9
SMQ 264.5 -1.9
SMU 266 -1.7
SMV 266.7 -1.7
SMZ 268.8 -1.4
SH 855 -4
SK 863.5 -2
SN 870 -1.75
SQ 872.5 -1.25
SU 873 -1
SX 876 -0.75
BOH 31.03 +0.38
BOK 31.23 +0.32
BON 31.47 +0.33
CH 354.50 -1
CK 359.50 -1
WH 443.25 -2
WK 452.25 -1.75
U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the DOW futures down. Interest rate products are higher. The dollar index points higher. Energies are mixed with crude up. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold down.
The markets opened on a mixed note and stayed that way throughout the session with traders taking profits on short positions. Major trend trades came back into play with spreaders buying soyoil / sell meal, with a slant towards buy corn/sell beans, courtesy of the USDA Agriculture Forum numbers.
The major feature in the soy complex was that of higher soyoil futures which found support from rising crude oil prices which traded at $34.69/barrel, the highest level since January. July oilshare rose from .37% up to .3753% in May. May meal quickly dropped to new contract lows at $258.90 where it found light pricing interest. May soyoil prices put in a very firm trade heading back towards the 3150's level, a chart stabilizing trade. Beans tried to maintain an even keel, starting a bit higher but finding pressure from meal's new contract lows.
Corn futures are lower. Ethanol margins should be getting a boost from the stronger energy complex with the switchover to the more expensive spring gasoline blends under way. South American corn looks to catch better rains for double-crop acres in the extended forecast. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum put new-crop carryout for this year at 1.9771 bil bu on a 168 yield and 90 mil acres. The sell-off this week appeared to be in anticipation of negative numbers like we have discussed. Basis has been soft this week with more active farmer movement.
Wheat futures lower with the weaker row crops and stronger dollar dragging wheat prices down. Egypt returned to the market Thursday and was able to secure further supplies from the Black Sea area as U.S. wheat remains uncompetitive on the world market. Weather looks nonthreatening in the near term. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum has wheat acres at 51.4 mil acres with a 938 mil bu carryout.
fund recap
sold 3000 wheat
sold 7000 corn
sold 5000 beans
sold 300 meal
bot 3000 soyoil
CLOSING COMMENTS
While there may not be many bull market opportunities here, seems that a few primary trends are coming to the fore - both old and new. On the old buy soyoil / sell meal is still alive and well as witnessed today. As to the new think we are going to see sell corn and buy bean (maybe even wheat) trade moving forward. With March on the doorstep, if farmers can get into the field to plant they will. Up to now corn prices have reflected value, trading sideways. But it's hard to keep corn prices up when the crop begins to get into the ground. The Forum numbers which were bearish corn/friendlier beans, could have jump started the process today.
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