Saturday, March 12, 2016

CBOT MAr 11 Closing comment #soybean #corn #wheat

CBOT Mar 11
        Last changes
SMH 272         +1.8
SMK 273.5 +1.6
SMN 276.2 +1.6
SMQ 277.2 +1.5
SMU 278.1 +1.3
SMV 278.6 +1.1
SMZ 280.3 +0.9
SH 888 +6.25
SK 895.75 +6.5
SN 901.5 +6.75
SQ 903.5 +6.75
SU 903.5 +6.25
SX 906.75 +6
BOH 31.93 +0.52
BOK 32.13 +0.51
BON 32.37 +0.51
CH 366.00 +3.5
CK 365.00 +2.25
WH 469.75 -1.75
WK 475.75 -1.25

The Dow is higher today with traders around the world finally deciding that the ECB stimulus yesterday was a good thing.  Crude oil is trading at a high of $39.96/barrel on its way to confirming a bottom has probably arrived.   Because it is Friday look to possibly trade both sides today.
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is  higher. Energies are higher with crude up. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle and feeders sharply higher and hogs mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold down.

Corn trade is higher due to outside market support and noted commercial support. The warm weather should allow early fieldwork to continue to make rapid progress and allow for early planting, although the cooler weather should appear towards the end of next week. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative but the blender economics have improved substantially to start the month. USDA announced 170,800 metric tons of corn sold to Japan.

Soybean trade is higher. Meal is fractionally lower and bean oil is up due to spillover support from the outside markets. Overall there is limited fresh news today illustrated by the mixed daily changes in the soy complex. South American harvest should continue to progress in the near-term potentially triggering some selling later in the session. The Brazilian currency continues to rally improving US competitiveness. Crush margins continue to improve with the strength of the oil side of the complex, with palm oil streaking higher as well. On the May soybean chart, support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh two-month high printed this morning at $8.95, then the 200-day at $9.05.



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