CBOT Mar15 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat

CBOT Mar 15
Last changes
SMK 268.2 -3.3
SMN 271 -3.2
SMQ 272.2 -3.1
SMU 273.2 -3
SMV 273.6 -2.9
SMZ 275.2 -2.8
SMF7 276.2 -2.9
SK 892 -3.75
SN 897.75 -4.25
SQ 900 -4
SU 899.75 -4.25
SX 902.75 -4.25
SF7 907 -4.25
BOK 32.49 +0.04
BON 32.72 +0.04
BOQ 32.79 +0.04
CK 368.50 -0.25
CN 373.50 +0
WK 477.25 -1.5
WN 484.50 -1.25

Soybean trade lower with trading finding selling with harvest continuing to move along in South America along with the more negative tone for commodities today. Meal is lower and oil points higher. South American harvest should continue to progress on a
normal pace with harvest pressure likely to limit near term upside. Long lines at the ports and backups on the highway will likely persist for a while. The COT report showed some of the strength last week was fund short covering. The oil side of the crush complex has been the strongest lately, and will need to stay that way to support crush. On the May soybean chart support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh 2-month high printed Monday at $8.97 then the 200-day at $9.05.

Corn trade is narrowly mixed; overnight trade was down a few cents. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative with some additional pressure from the weak energy trade to start the week, with ethanol futures fractionally lower this morning as they stay range bound. Heavy rains in the Mississippi Delta are slowing planting progress. This is noted supporting futures this morning. The large short position could allow bigger moves upward if additional short covering can be engaged, and another positive finish today would be a step in that direction.

Wheat trade is flat to lower across the three contracts with trade seeing pressure from the weaker row crop trade and stronger dollar. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term which should add support, with excessive moisture in the delta growing areas, while spring wheat has found some better demand lately. Egypt devalued their currency which will make further wheat imports more expensive. India looks to have some stormy weather in the near term which might cause some damage to the growing crop. If the Fed
raises U.S. interest rates this week, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of US exports..