CBOT Mar14 Closing comment #soybean #corn #wheat

CBOT Mar 14
Last changes
SMH 268.1 -3.9
SMK 271.5 -2
SMN 274.2 -2
SMQ 275.3 -1.9
SMU 276.2 -1.9
SMV 276.5 -2.1
SMZ 278 -2.3
SH 888 +0
SK 895.75 +0
SN 902 +0.5
SQ 904 +0.5
SU 904 +0.5
SX 907 +0.25
BOH 32.25 +0.32
BOK 32.45 +0.32
BON 32.68 +0.31
CH 366.75 +0.75
CK 368.75 +3.75
WH 471.50 +1.75
WK 478.75 +3

Soybean trade is narrowly mixed with trade moving sideways with support from corn and wheat working against South American harvest pressure. Meal is lower and oil is higher. South American harvest should continue to progress on a normal pace with harvest pressure likely to limit upside next week. There were some protests over the weekend, but they were likely insufficient to get the market too excited for a near term
reaction, but unrest in Brazil could eventually become a bigger story. The COT report showed some of the strength last week was fund short covering. The weekly export inspections were a bit softer at 715,816 metric tons. On the May soybean chart support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh two-month high printed today at $8.97 then the 200-day at $9.05

Corn trade higher with trade finding some light buying after the CFTC revealed additional non-commercial shorts added to the market last week. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative with some additional pressure from the weak energy trade to start the week, although ethanol futures have edged marginally higher this morning. The COT report following the session showed funds adding on shorts which gives us a little more short covering power if we can find the reason to move above the next resistance levels early this week. The weekly export inspections were ok at 804,499 metric tons.

Wheat trade higher across the three contracts with light buying on weather concerns to start the week. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term, which should add support, with excessive moisture in the delta growing areas. The ruble has firmed which could hurt Russian export ability, but their winter wheat looks to be in very good shape coming out of winter. India looks to have some stormy weather in the near term which might cause some damage to the growing crop. If the FED raises U.S. interest rates this week, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of U.S. exports.