CBOT Jun29
Lastchanges
SMN397.1+4.7
SMQ396.4+2.9
SMU393.7+1.6
SMV390.7+1.3
SMZ390.1+1.2
SMF7386.3+1.1
SMH7367.8-0.5
SN1144.5-6
SQ1140.5-5.75
SU1123-7.25
SX1112.5-7.75
SF71108.5-8.25
SH71073.5-7.25
BON30.82-0.29
BOQ30.98-0.27
BOU31.11-0.28
CN372.75-12.5
CU377.75-11
CZ383.00-11.25
WN429.50-14.25
WU444.50-12.75
WZ465.25-11.75
Most of the markets are lower this morning as cooler air crosses much of the Midwest,
producing some storms in its wake. Trends are becoming less clear as BREXIT
created some temporary lows, with what appears to be possible topping action as
well on most of the charts. Feels like the markets could wind up in the middle of
these ranges awaiting the very important USDA June acreage/stocks report tomorrow.
First notice day is also tomorrow, with possible high bean and corn deliveries.
Wheat futures remain pressured from harvest and continued talk about great yields. But
wheat will begin on a plus note as some traders cover in their shorts before tomorrow.
Wheat futures will gain on beans, while the corn/bean ratio corrects a touch with larger
losses in soy to begin the morning.
Here are the well advertised numbers for stocks/acreage in front of tomorrow's report:
Plantings
Corn: 92.896
Beans: 83.834
All wheat: 49.869
Stocks
Corn: 4.528
Beans: 0.829
Wheat: 0.982
The markets opened lower as called with grains still weaker against soy, and oilshare once again
weaker on the back of higher meal prices versus soyoil futures. Cooler weather and the
chance of better rainfall pressured the markets today as bulls took profits. Wheat markets
continued to trade to new lows on talk of excellent yields. Spread activity is still a high
percentage of volume as more traders exit July and nearby positions.
SOY
Soybean prices opened lower but found pricing interest and spillover support following meal prices higher. The key feature of the day was higher meal against a weaker soyoil market, taking Dec oilshare down to .2880%. Dec soyoil futures found spillover pressure from palm oil's hefty sell-off and negative chart patterns with the failed rally from yesterday which ended in a poor close.
GRAINS
The main feature on the board today was lower wheat. Sep CBOT wheat traded to new lows
for the move down at 4.45, triggering more selling pressure. Sep Kansas City wheat futures continued to post new contract lows trading down to 4.18 1/4c as reports of excellent yields and harvest pressure continues to weigh on the board. Funds were net sellers needing to also hedge against length elsewhere on the board. Corn bulls followed wheat's lead with funds selling into commercial pricing activity in an exchange of ownership. Better weather, negative chart signals, and the upcoming report tomorrow created pressure throughout the day. Sep corn traded through minor support triggering sell-stops below the market that took charts down towards the low of the last break towards $3.78. Dec corn started the day on weak note but also took out minor trendline support at 3.90 which led to a quick decline as well. Ethanol production was forecast higher, up 40,000 barrels per day while stocks were .3% higher.
Fund recap
sold 5000 wheat (from 4000 earlier)
sold 10000 corn (from 6000 earlier)
bot 2000 meal (from bot 3000 earlier)
sold 3000 soyoil
CLOSING COMMENTS
Prices remain defensive today as larger acreage may be confirmed tomorrow. Weather and ratings week-to -week will dominate price action. historically the fourth of July can be a turning point if more corn heads through pollination unscathed and large acreage is confirmed tomorrow. Funds are still long pretty hefty amounts of beans/corn. Today felt like a lot of nervous longs were starting to leave the market. Beans were pretty much left alone. If we go through July 4th with normal temps and more rainfall - and unchanged ratings, beans may still remain higher as compared to grains until we get through August. But tomorrow will be a most important day in terms of acreage and stocks. Watch the weather, ratings, and technicals.
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