Market Highlights CBOT | 2nd Jul 2019

Macros

• Wall street climbed on Monday, led by gains in tech. stocks on optimism for progress in U.S.-China trade talks
• Stocks still gave up a good portion of earlier gains as investors contemplated whether Fed Reserve would be as dovish as anticipated
• DJIA gained 0.44%, S&P increased 0.77%, Nasdaq advanced 1.06%
• Asian stocks rallied before Monday market close as investors priced in U.S.-China trade truce
• Asian markets are however, mixed on Tuesday morning as weak global manufacturing activity reinforced worries about slowing world growth
• Further dragging on sentiment was U.S. government’s threat on Monday of tariffs on $4b of additional EU goods
• Oil prices slip as demand worries outweigh OPEC supply cuts
• OPEC agreed on Monday to extend oil supply cuts until Mar 2020 as group’s members overcame difference to prop up price of crude
• OANDA: After 2 ½ years of production cuts, effects of rolling over production cuts is losing steam
• WTI at $58.61/bbl and Brent at $64.73/bbl

Corn

• CBOT: Sep corn declined 9 ¼ cents to $4.15 ½ /bu
• Traders remain uncertain how many acres were actually planted after USDA pegged planted acres well above trade expectations
• USDA: Export inspections pegged at 273kmt ; well below expectations of 500kmt to 800kmt
• USDA: Crop condition unchanged at 56% GD/EX, 1% below market expectations
• Maxar: Temperatures well above normal across corn belt over weekend; accelerating crop growth
• APK Inform: Corn exports expected to fall to 26.5mmt from 28mmt; due to a decrease in output from 35.8mmt to 34.8mmt

Wheat

• CBOT: Sep Chicago wheat slumped 15 ½ cents down to $5.11 ¾ /bu
• U.S. winter wheat harvest expanded amid drier weather and technical selling
• USDA: Export inspections pegged at 609kmt; topping trade expectations for 300kmt to 500kmt
• USDA: Winter wheat harvest at 30% complete by Sunday, up from 15% in last week’s report
• APK-Inform: Ukraine’s wheat exports to increase from 15.8mmt to 16.2mmt as harvest likely to rise from 24.6mmt to 25.7mmt
• IKAR: Cuts forecast for Russia’s wheat harvest and exports earlier on Monday
• Lowered estimate for Russian wheat exports in 19/20 season by 300kmt to 36.2mmt
• Cut forecast for Russia’s 2019 wheat harvest by 700kmt to 79.3mmt
• Saudi Arabia’s state grain buyer SAGO bought 730kmt of wheat for Sep-Nov delivery in latest international purchasing tender
• Wheat were bought at average price of $233.88/mt

Soy

• CBOT: Aug soybeans fell 14 ¾ cents to $8.89 ¾ /bu, Aug soybean meal down $8.10 to $307.20/st
• Soy futures retreated from early advances under pressure from improving weather that should bolster U.S. production prospects
• Traders also shrug off support from U.S.-China trade talks
• USDA: Export inspections pegged at 719.3kmt, near the high end of trade expectations for 450kmt to 750kmt
• USDA: Crop conditions unchanged at 54% GD/EX; 2% below market expectations