GMO corn and Mexico

The Agriculture ministry of Mexico has approve a GMO corn planting in the country. They have 2 permits for growing GMO corn, but the reported did not say who were permitted. The planting area will control to grow in areas that have no local corn is grown.
The GMO expand to the world ,benefit to use GMO corn are improve yield, decrease pesticide use, and reduce mycotoxin level. However, a issue of environment and market risk should be considered by country who would like to allow GMO corn crop production and trade.

related link:
Benefits of Bt(GM) corn's reduction of mycotoxic damage has been virtually ignored in policy debates worldwide

CBOT Closing Prices 15 Oct 2009

Soybean

Nov09 -11 to 983 ,Jan10 -10.25 to 987.75

Soymeal Dec09 -9.5 to 296.2

Soybean Oil Dec09 + 0.6 to 36.78

• Trader taking profit.
• Improve in harvest weather is pressure on soybean prices. The forecast are drier next week.
  
• Speculated money flow out from CBOT grain.
• Meal closed sharply lower on the day while oil finished substantially higher in active trade by spreaders and Support from higher crude oil prices.
• Technical support for decline prices is 968 and 950.
• Market need to see a solid export demand in USDA export sales that will release on 16/10/09 in order to support prices.

Corn
Dec09 -10 to 373 , Mar10 -10 to 385.

• No supported from fund and speculated money
• Trader expect a significant jump in USDA export sale this week from last week's total of 521,900 tonnes.
• Sing of stability in dollar gave trader reason to take profit.
• Corn prices broke support average 200 day at 370 but close higher in the ended.
• Price decline to corrected overbought in corn.
• But high oil price would support corn demand for ethanol.

Wheat
Dec09 -8 at 505, July10 -8.25 to 547 1/2.

• Egypt buy 6.6 million bushels of France wheat.
• Trader take profit from lacking follow though buying.
• Technical selling to corrected over bougth.
• fundamental of wheat are bearish on high production and stock.

Malaysia's Oct 1-15 palm oil export by SGS and ITS

Export of Malaysian palm oil for Oct 1-15 reported by SGS rose 10% to 591,791 tonnes from 538,200 tonnes of Sep 1-15. The redcution from export to china was cover by increase in EU+ US + India export.
Export of Malaysian palm oil for Oct 1-15 reported by ITS rose 12.6% to 596,515 tonnes from 529,980 tonnes of Sep 1-15. Export to China reduce from long holiday but export to EU was rose sharply.

Soybean Pre Opening 15 Oct 2009

Soybean; Nov09 -20.75 for overnight market

• China's Ministry of Commerce reported that October soybean imports would fall to around 2.0 million tonnes.
• China sold 2,200 tonnes of soybeans from its national reserves out of 503,900 tonnes.
• Price reduce sharply from taking profit.
• Weather forecast for next 6-10 day and 8-14 day show that rain would moving out of Midwest with warm weather next week. Producer will have chance for harvest before rains return. Better weather bearish on bean prices.
  

Technical

• Overbought stochastic and selling signal.
• Price reduce after cannot break resistance at 996-1000 cent.
• Price may be goes down.
  

Wheat Pre Opening 15 Oct 2009

Wheat: Dec09 -7.5 for overnight market.

• UK august wheat export reported at 100,132 tonnes. Total for year 09/10 were 265,767 tonnes up from 186,514 tonnes last year.
• Russia's federal customs service announced that its July-September wheat exports were 4.875 million tonnes, less than year ago at 660,000 tonnes.
• Trader sell off to lock their profit.
• Japan's Ministry of Agriculture has bought 132,000 tonnes of wheat from the United
  States, Canada and Australia through an ordinary tender.
• The Strategies Grains cut EU wheat crop to 129 million tonnes (1.2 m from last est.), they also reduce ending stock to 15.6 million tonnes less 2 million from previous estimated and average yield was 5.7 tonnes per acre.
  

Technical;

• Overbought on stochastic and RSI
• Price cannot break resistance level at 507 cent.
• Seem to be reversal on candlestick, may price would be lower.
  

Corn Pre Opening 15 Oct 09

Corn: Dec09 -9.5 cent for overnight market

• Trader taking profit.
• The slow harvest was still supported. But better weather for harvest next week put pressure on corn prices.
  
• The dollar continue to lowest for 14 month , Euro hit $1.4956 highest since Aug 08.
• The China CNGOIC, reduce estimated 2009/10 corn crop by 2.5 million tonnes. USDA estimated at 155 million tonnes lower from last estimated by 5 million.

Technical;

• Overbought in Stochastic and selling signal.
• Candle stick pattern has a reversal.
• Price could be lower.
  

CBOT Closing 14 Oct 2009

Soy

November soybeans closed at 9.94, up 1 cent
October Soybean Meal at 336.00, up 9.70 points
October Soybean Oil at 35.95, up 9 points.

• The NOPA crush for soybeans for September was 107.4 million bushels, below trade estimated at 113 million.
  
• Slow harvest support price from selling. The harvest activity with only 23% of the crop harvested compared to 49% last year and 57% for the five year average.
• Weak dollar support price from selling.
• The USDA announced a sale of 110,000 tonnes of soybeans to China.

Corn

December corn closed at $3.83, up 1 ¼ cents
March corn at $3.95, up 1 ¾ cents.

• The corn harvest is only 13% done compared to 20% last year and 35% for the five year average.
• Trader sell for profit taking but outside market also support corn price from a lower dollar, higher equities and a push to near the 2009 highs in crude oil.
• The Maize Group in Taiwan is set to tender on Friday for either 58,000 tonnes of US corn or 52,000 tonnes of Brazilian corn.

Wheat

December CBOT wheat finished at $5.13, up 1 ¾ cents.

• Iraq purchased 200,000 tonnes of hard red winter wheat for 2009/10 shipment.
  
• Egypt announced this afternoon they would tender for 30-60,000 MT of wheat for shipment in the last half of November, first half of December from option origin.
  
• The delayed bean and corn harvest is bullish for wheat too as it may prevent some winter acreage from getting into the ground.
• The early buying in wheat credited to the lower dollar.
• Argentina's Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered its 2009/10 Argentine wheat crop again to 7.5 million tonnes from 7.55 million the previous week. Planted area was left unchanged at 1.88 million hectares.

NOPA Crushing 14 Oct 09

NOPA reported us soybean crushing (Sept) drop 11% year on year at at 107.34 million bushels below trade estimated at 113 million bu. The slow percentage harvested at 23% below from last year at 49% was added to cause of decline in crushing, bean would not available for processor now. On the other hand slow consumption on red-meat and poultry product lead to slow consumption for soy meal by US beef, pork and dairy producer. USDA forecast US red-meat and poultry product may decline by 3.1% this year.
The inventories of soybean oil at ended of Sept increase to 1.03 million tonnes (2.262 billion pounds) up 14% year on year but below trade expect at 2.365 billion pounds.

Pre Open Soybean, 14 Oct 2009

Soybean ; up 4.25 cent for overnight trading.

Support by

• Weak dollar and crude oil prices.
• Slow harvest, percent harvest was only 23% from last year 49%.

Other Data

• Nopa released US crushing this morning at 107.4 below trade estimated at 113 million bushels.
• SOPA estimated Indian's vegetable oil import at 7.98 million (11 month) from 5.43 million tonnes last year.

Technical;

• Stochastic was overbought and have selling signal.
• Trader might lock their profit.
• Resistance was 996-1000 price will side way or higher to next resistance level (1,040-1,060) from weak dollar and outside market supported.
  

Pre Open Wheat 14 Oct 09

Wheat; Dec09 was up 4 cent overnight.
Support by

• lower dollar index and outside market.
• Speculate money pour on wheat contract.
• Export inspection inline with estimated at 17.8 million bushels from last week 22.2 million.
  

Bearish factor

• Australian wheat will goes up to 22.2 - 23.5 million tonnes.
• World ending stock quite high from last year, USDA estimated wheat ending stock at 864 million above estimated at 802 million.
  

Technical

• Price moving to 510 level. I think wheat price will moving around that level cause yesterday price increase sharply so at that level some trader will lock their profit.
• No reversal singnal.
• price would rise to resistance level at 510 and 551 cent.
  

Pre-Open Corn (14 Oct 09)

Corn (Dec) : up 3 cent for overnight market
Support by

• A weaker dollar and hope of economic recovery were good news for commodity markets.
• Corn harvest was running very slow that percent harvested was only 13% lower than last year at 20% and below 5 year average at 35%
• Rain and Cool temperature would made harvest delayed.
• Outside market ; crude oil and equity still higher, Hang Seng +419.12 to 21,886, Nekei225 -16.35 to 10,060 at end of 14/10/09 and Euro equity market open higher.

Technical

• Corn price already break resistance at 379 cent and moving around that level.
• Price will move to test next resistance at 391.
• No reversal signal yet.
• Stochastic was overbought.
• Support from USD and Crude oil, corn price would rallies to next resistance.
  

USDA Export inspection weekend Oct 8,

USDA Export inspection weekend Oct 8,

Corn: Actual = 20.452 million bushels , Est = 34 - 39
Wheat: Actual = 17.85 million bushels , Est = 15 - 20
Soybean : Actual = 14.687 million bushels , Est = 11-30

Related link : USDA

GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
                          - 1,000 BUSHELS -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     CURRENT      PREVIOUS
             ------------ WEEK ENDING -----------  MARKET YEAR   MARKET YEAR
GRAIN           10/08/09      10/01/09      10/09/08    TO DATE       TO DATE

WHEAT            17,845        22,255        24,551       312,960       483,559
RYE                   0             0             0             0             0
OATS                  0             3             0            52           263
BARLEY               12             0           238           818         7,409
FLAXSEED              0            16           212           293           212
CORN             20,452        46,175        31,524       211,348       198,058
SORGHUM             289         1,060         4,497        18,437        24,144
SOYBEANS         14,687        13,461        17,746        54,477        52,925
SUNFLOWER             0             0             0             0             0

TOTAL            53,285        82,970        78,768       598,385       766,570
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER
SEEDS.

SOPA estimated soybean output decline by 14%

The SOPA reported soybean output in the year ended Sept was 9.31 million tonnes decline from forecast of 10.8 million tonnes. The projection was cut down after export of soymeal slide 34% to 3.21 million tonnes in the year end of Sept from small crop. The soybean planting area will rose to 9.61 million hectares (24 million acres) in this season from 9.64 million hectares last year with crop harvest may around 9.72 million tonnes and the carry over is around 600,000 tonnes.

related link: SOPA