U.S. Weather Forecast, Next week is clear

The Accuweather report on Oct 31,2009...Show the clear sky in soybean and corn plant next week harvest will develop but we would keep follow up yield and bean quality...

The Rain Keeps Falling on the Beans

Pam Smith : Seeds and production Editor, Wet wet wet in soybean plant area in Central Illinois. There are a lot of wet bean that possible high damage and moisture bean lead to lower yield than expected in some area.

What are managed Futures....VDO

Trend For Trading On Monday, November 2, 2009

The trend trader for futures , present by www.patterntrapper.com which use pivot point analysis to entered and exit position. This tool should be used with other technical indicator to optimize your trading.

The Trend for Trading On Monday, Nov2,2009 indicated soybean, corn and wheat is bearish with selling signal but soy meal contract is bullish with buying singnal.

					Minor Trend	Major Trend	Trend Reading
INDICES	Close	Change	3x1	7x5

S&P 500 - Dec9	1033.00	− 28.50	1047.92	1050.33			Bearish
Dow Jones - Dec9	9664	− 239	9783	9774			Bearish
Nasdaq - Dec9	1665.50	− 42.00	1691.06	1700.92			Bearish
Russell - Dec9	561.80	− 14.70	570.86	576.53			Bearish

GRAINS

Corn - Dec9	366^0	− 13^4	371^4	376^6			Bearish
Wheat - Dec9	494^2	− 9^4	500^4	513^4			Bearish
Soybeans - Jan10	976^4	− 10^4	977^2	984^6			Bearish
Soybean Meal - Dec9	297.0	+ 1.7	293.5	295.4			Bullish
Soybean Oil - Dec9	36.40	− 1.12	36.96	36.99			Bearish

ENERGY

Crude Oil - Dec9	76.99	− 2.88	78.42	78.47			Bearish
Heating Oil - Dec9	2.0120	− 0.0667	2.0456	2.0517			Bearish
Natural Gas - Dec9	5.012	− 0.050	5.093	5.137			Bearish

CURRENCIES

US Dollar Index - Dec9

76.475

+ 0.410

76.361

76.183

Bullish

My comment: Soybean is bearish , with other indicator MACD show bearish divergence , moving average indicator is bear and Stochastic also bearish. Next week soybean price may open lower with downside support 963, 925 and major support 900. USD Index has reverse signal from bullish in trend analysis and MACD has bullish devergence, may USD change direction? That could pressure on commodity next week.

Pivot point Analysis explain by Joseph Skibinski:

Pivot Points offer the trader a method of determining support and resistance for a given time frame. Pivots can be used with any time frame, daily, weekly, monthly, even any intra-day chart. A common technique is to calculate Pivots for a variety of time frames using common levels as a way of developing confidence parameters. There are five basic parameters calculated in Pivot Point Analysis. They are the Pivot (P), 1st Resistance (R1), 2nd Resistance (R2), 1st Support (S1) and 2nd Support (S2).

These levels are used in much the same manner as you would trendline support and resistance levels. Many traders us the Pivot level as a trend indicator. Above P, they only go long. Below P, they only go short. Conversely, you can go long against S1 with your stop loss a few ticks below S2. You can go long above the Pivot or above R2 with an entrty stop. If your long against S! is successful, you can add to the position with a buy stop above the Pivot. Then, you can take partial profits with a limit at R2 and trail your protective stop on the remaining position for the ever elusive "Home Run" trade. The equations can be easily programmed into Excel and are often offered as canned indicators by most charting services. However, it's good to know what they represent. H, L and C represent the previous day's High, Low and Close, respectively. Here's the equations:

R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
R1 = (P x 2) - L
P = (H + L + C) / 3
S1 = (P x 2) - H
S2 = P - (R1 - S1)

Adjusted Pivots

Often a large gap open leaves Pivot numbers calculated on the previous day's actions fairly useless.
Many traders adjust their value for P as follows:

O = Today's Opening Price
P = O + (H + L + C) / 4

Time Less In Thailand....Lonely planet....Nice short VDO

The full moon party was start around 25 year ago...It just a thank you party for costumers of Paradise Bungalows.The party set up on full moon night which that it have no electricity supply just only white beach , clear sea view and mountain round with moonlight....From the beginning , Just only 20-30 people join the party but now the Full moon party is a big funny party....I like it so much.....In Full moon party we can met people from all around the world, enjoy together....and Drink drank drunk....This Lonely planet VDO let me think about join that party again....Next Full moon day is Nov 2,2009 , Dec 2, 2009 and Dec 31,2009......that be grate time to have a new year party there....

US Dought Monitor

NOAA's Dought Monitor reported on Oct 27,2009 , For the next 5 days (Oct.28-Nov.1),during the next 5 days (Oct. 28-Nov. 1), a storm system is expected to intensify in the center of the country. Upslope conditions could trigger heavy snowfall across Wyoming and Colorado early in the period. As the system develops, heavy rains are expected from the Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana to Illinois and eastward to New England. Ahead of a system in the Gulf of Alaska, western Washington is expected to be wet. Outside of those areas, little to no drought relief is expected.

The CPC 6-10 day forecast (November 2-6) calls for increased chances of above-median precipitation along the U.S.-Canada border from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes, and below-median precipitation from the Great Basin eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Above-normal temperatures are favored from the Southwest, across the central and southern Plains, to the Southeast while below-normal temperatures are more likely from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains. Colder and drier than normal conditions should prevail in eastern Alaska.

Full reported :USDA

USDA Export Sales, Soybean Oct 29,2009

This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period Oct. 16-22, 2009.

Soybeans: Net sales of 691,000 MT were down 30% from the previous week and 21% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (437,000 MT, including 110,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 14,500 MT), Taiwan (70,700 MT), Mexico (41,800 MT), unknown destinations (37,500 MT), Egypt (29,700 MT), Japan (21,000 MT), and Cuba (16,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Venezuela (2,400 MT) and Turkey (900 MT). Exports of 1,433,600 MT were up 67% from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (1,018,500 MT) Mexico (149,200 MT), Taiwan (66,600 MT), Egypt (62,700 MT), Saudi Arabia (57,500 MT), and Canada (28,600 MT). Note: Accumulated exports were adjusted down 26,000 MT for Turkey and adjusted up 26,000 MT for Canada.

Soybean Cake and Meal: Net sales of 176,200 MT were up 52% from the previous week. Increases were reported for Mexico (49,400 MT), the Philippines (44,500 MT), Ireland (26,700 MT), New Zealand (26,400 MT, switched from Australia), and Latvia (25,500 MT, switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (75,500 MT). Net sales of 3,200 MT for delivery in 2010/11 were for Mexico (2,900 MT) and Canada (300 MT). Exports of 165,700 MT were double the previous week. The primary destinations were New Zealand (26,400 MT), Latvia (25,500 MT), Australia (24,800 MT), Canada (23,000 MT), and Venezuela (21,500 MT).

Soybean Oil: Net sales of 9,200 MT were down 61% from the previous week. Increases were reported for Peru (19,900 MT, including 10,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and 6,000 MT switched from the Dominican Republic), Morocco (2,000 MT), and Mexico (1,500 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (10,500 MT) and the Dominican Republic (6,000 MT). Exports of 27,600 MT were primarily to Morocco (14,500 MT), Peru (5,000 MT), Jamaica (3,200 MT) and Tunisia (2,000 MT).

Soy bean pre opening chart, Oct 29,2009

Overnight Soybean was 4.5 higher...Soybean overnight trading was support from outside market and short covering

• USD lower
  
• Crude oil (Asia trade) and Malaysia palm oil price gain 1.7% but China soy oil loss 2.5%
• From technical view, Candlestick chart has sign of reversal with support at 967 cent. and buy signal from Slow stochastic indicator. But major trend is down from MACD and neutral RSI. Today price may bounce back for short term with upside resistance at 987-1000 cent.
  
• Next downside support is 947 and 906 cent. At that point i would long some beans.
• Even if soybean price has pressure from good weather forecast that good for fieldwork next week. But soybean have a fundamental supported from import demand from China still continue buying and shipment will increase when bean coming out from fields. China is committed soybean for Feb shipment already. US crushing margin is positive and better than last year. Finally wet weather make losses in soybean fields (more wet bean in the fields) production may lower than USDA estimated.
  
• But Bearish factor is huge South America crop and China buying may shift to South America after Feb-Mar shipment.
  

Index funds make up quarter of commods market: John Kemp

picture from forexmenter

-- John Kemp is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are his own --
LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Positions held by commodity indices are equivalent to about 20-25 percent of all the open interest in major U.S. futures and options contracts, according to quarterly index investment data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Total investment in commodity indices amounted to $117 billion at the end of June 2009. Around $95 billion was invested in components linked to U.S. commodity contracts
(such as NYMEX crude oil or CBOT corn), with $22.5 billion in components linked to overseas contracts (such as ICE Brent or LME copper). The largest investments are in contracts linked to NYMEX crude oil ($30 billion), U.S. natural gas ($9.5 billion), gold ($6.7 billion), and soybeans ($6.4 billion). But the impact is probably greatest in agricultural markets, where despite
relatively small allocations in dollar amounts, index investments account for an unusually high share of the open interest, in some cases approaching half the total.

* http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/ce-insight/COMMODITYINDEX-
SCALE-1.pdf
* http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/ce-insight/COMMODITYINDEX-
SCALE-2.pdf
* http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/ce-insight/CFTC-INDEXINVESTMENTS.
pdf

COMPREHENSIVE POSITION DATA

The data is based on the "special call" the Commission first sent to 43 major commodity market participants as part of its investigation into whether investors were causing the spike in oil and other commodity prices in H1 2008, using its powers under Rule 18.05, which has been ontinued
since then. The special call was addressed to 16 swap dealers known to have significant index business; 14 known commodity index funds, including asset managers and sponsors of exchangetraded funds (ETFs) and notes (ETNs); and 13 swap dealers not known to engage in significant index business but are major market participants. The call covers all commodity index and index-like business, including ETFs and ETNs, whether held through futures and
options positions on exchanges, or over-the-counter swap deals. It is therefore the most comprehensive measure of the sector.

STILL OVER-WEIGHTED TO CRUDE

Commodity indices have traditionally been weighted heavily towards crude oil and refined oil products. The productionweighted Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has a 53 percent
weighting towards crude oil and another 14 percent weighting to crude derivatives. Other indices have smaller weightings. The Dow Jones-AIG index, now renamed the Dow Jones-UBS index , caps the weighting of any related group of commodities (energy, precious metals, livestock or grains) at 33 percent. Crude oil is currently weighted at just 14 percent with another 7 percent for refined products. But all indices remain over-exposed to oil and products, limiting the diversification benefits they are supposed to provide compared with an investment in a single contract, and exposing them to large roll costs whenever the oil market moves into persistent contango. In response, index operators have introduced variants which cap crude exposure at a lower level. Standard and Poor's offers indices that cut crude exposure from 53 percent in the main GSCI to 41 percent (Reduced Energy Index), 28 percent (Light Energy Index) or even 18 percent (Ultra-Light Energy Index), with similar cuts in the exposure to refined products. But while operators have offered an ever-increasing suite of products, the CFTC data suggests
investors have taken only limited advantage, and remain heavily overweight in the commodities most affected. Index investors, including those in single-commodity ETFs and Tens as well as more diversified baskets, held about 26 percent of all their exposure in products linked to the NYMEX WTI contract, and another 8.5 percent in NYMEX gasoline and heating oil. Probably half the remaining exposure in markets outside the United States, on which the CFTC has not offered a detailed breakout, was to ICE Brent and gas oil. If so, total exposure to oil and refined products is more than 40 percent, which is relatively high. Much of this is probably from investments in ETFs such as the U.S. Oil Fund and represents strong interest from retail
investors pursuing a simple, directional strategy linked to flagship energy contracts. Institutional investors are more likely to have opted for baskets, with capped exposure to crude and products, so are more diversified. Nonetheless, the index investor "universe" is still far too
heavily weighted towards crude and products markets, despite the urging of investment banks and others to adopt more sophisticated second and third-generation index strategies.

INDICES DOMINATE CBOT WHEAT

While most index money is allocated to energy contracts, it has a much greater impact on agricultural contracts, where relatively small dollar amounts represent a larger share of
the overall open interest. On average, index investments were equivalent to about 25
percent of the reported on-exchange futures and options open interest in the contracts covered by the CFTC special call. But investments range from just 14 percent of the reported
open interest in WTI, 19 percent in heating oil and 27 percent in gasoline to 34 percent in cotton, 37 percent in live cattle and lean hogs, and a staggering 45 percent in CBOT wheat. Not all these positions were in exchange-traded futures and options; in fact most were probably held in bilateral swap deals. But since the valuation of swaps is determined by on-exchange prices, and swap exposures can be hedged out into the public markets, the two are closely linked.

Expressing index positions as a share of reported onexchange open interest gives some idea of how large and influential they are in relation to the overall market. The concentration of index positions in CBOT wheat is often cited as one of the reasons why futures prices have failed to converge with the spot market on expiry over the past five years; the concentration is certainly exceptionally high, even by the standard of other agricultural futures markets. It may be too much for the available liquidity provided by other market users.

CFTC REVIEWS INDEX EXEMPTIONS

In August, the CFTC revoked exemptions given to two index operators (Deutsche Bank commodity Index Tracking Master Fund, and one unnamed operator) previously allowing
them to exceed normal position limits in wheat, corn and soybeans. The Commission concluded the specific trading strategies employed did not qualify for a bona fide hedge exemption.
It gave no further details but may have concluded the strategies were too "active" to qualify as passive riskmanagement for a commodity index basket, or that the underlying markets were simply too small for the positions being taken. Both positions will now be run down over time to comply with federal position limits. The Commission stated the withdrawal of these two no action letters was "very specific and limited and does not affect any other no-action or regulatory positions … with regard to these entities or other market participants". But if CBOT's wheat convergence problem continues, the Commission may come under pressure to tighten the limits
further to cut the share of index investment from 45 percent to something more in line with other contracts. Position limits on other contracts are also under consideration as part of the CFTC's review of energy markets. But problems are less pressing in energy, because indices account for no more than 27 percent of on-exchange interest (gasoline) and often less (for heating oil and crude). While interest remains at this level, it seems likely the CFTC
will continue to provide fairly generous exemptions for index operators. They will, however, almost certainly face tougher reporting requirements and may be required to separate the management of (passive) index positions (that will continue to receive generous exemptions) from active and proprietary ones (that will not). But if index investments in oil and natural gas start to show explosive growth, as the USO and U.S. Natural Gas fund did earlier this year, the CFTC will almost certainly step in to limit their market share and prevent either excessive concentration or distortions caused during roll periods.

U.S. harvest delays throw crop size into question

picture from iwebcam

CHICAGO, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Historic harvest delays are forcing U.S. farmers to harvest soybeans and corn with quality problems and undesirably high moisture levels, and the ultimate impact on production is uncertain, analysts said. "We've never had a concurrent bean and corn problem like
this, with late harvest and wet weather. So the trade really doesn't know how to handle it," said Charlie Sernatinger, analyst with Fortis Clearing Americas. "They don't know all the ramifications of what this kind of weather is going to end up doing to the crop, either the quality or possible bushel losses."

source : Reuters

Dreyfus sees commods consolidation, sugar next

commodity

SAO PAULO, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Volatility in commodity markets tends to boost consolidation in the agriculture sector as firms require more capital and improved risk management,
the executive officer of French giant Louis Dreyfus said Tuesday. Companies in the sector also tend to diversify their portfolio in volatile times as a way to reduce dependence on a single product and limit the impact price fluctuations could have on the company as a whole, said Serge Schoen, also
Dreyfus' chairman of the board. "Volatility of commodities have doubled in 20 years ...
which means more risk and more capital (are needed) to afford this," Schoen said in an interview with international news agencies in Sao Paulo, after announcing the group's takeover of Brazilian sugar and ethanol firm Santelisa Vale.

source : Reuters

US Oct/Mar soymeal exports to hit record-Oil World

• U.S. soymeal exports will surge to record levels in Oct. 2009 to March 2010 as rival South American supplies become scarcer after poor harvests.
• Combined soymeal exports from U.S. rivals Argentina and Brazil were forecast by Oil World to fall by over 2 million tonnes on the year in the same period.
• Argentina's exports were forecast to fall by about 1.3 million tonnes on the year to 10.06 million and Brazil's by around 0.8 million to 4.51 million tonnes as disappointing soybean crops in early 2009 further reduce exports.
• The growing South American shortage meant India was also set to achieve an unexpected rise in exports.......

Full News from Reuters

Brazil Soybean-Planting Forecast Raised by Safras

The report from Safras said that farmer may grow soybean 22.8 million hectares up from July estimated at 22.6 million hectares.....detail are.....

• Brazil, the world’s second-largest producer of soybeans, will plant more of the oilseed than previously forecast, research company Safras & Mercados said.

  Soybean growers will plant 22.8 million hectares (56.3 million acres) this year, up from a July estimate of 22.6 million hectares, said Flavio Franca Jr., an analyst at Safras. Farmers planted 21.7 million hectares last year...........read full news from Bloomberg

CBOT News Oct 27,2009

Morning Comment and News

December corn was 1 cent lower late in the overnight session.

• Pre-Opening Corn Market Report for 10/27/2009 (CME group)

The December wheat contract was 3 1/2 cents lower overnight. Outside markets were mixed with the dollar marginally lower late overnight.

• Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 10/27/2009 (CME group)

January soybeans were unchanged late in the overnight session. Outside markets including the dollar, equities and crude oil were modestly supportive late in the overnight session.

• Pre-Opening Soy Complex Market Report for 10/27/2009 (CME group)
  

Bryce Knorr from Farmfutures...He said corn and soybean should open a bit better but wheat may lower. The detail was in link below.....

• Futures try to hold the line against further selling this morning, after sharp declines across the board on Monday. While yesterday’s selling had more to do with the dollar than crop fundamentals, volatile swings continue to be the rule, not the exception...(Farmfutures)

Rain still delayed harvest for US corn and soybean.......

• Data showing another week of slow progress in the rain-hampered US corn and soybean harvests, coupled with a slight weakening in the dollar, put a halt to the collapse farm commodity prices.....(Agrimoney)
• The latest crop/weather report by the Wisconsin Ag Statistics Service notes that fieldwork, harvesting and winter wheat planting were all delayed by the heavy precipitation during the past week. Across the reporting stations, rainfall ranged from 1.47 inches in Madison to 2.86 inches in La Crosse; and average temperatures ranged from one degree above to two degrees below normal....(Wisconsin Agconnection)
• The U.S. corn and soybean harvests continue to plod along, with minimal progress made as of Sunday after another week of soggy Midwest weather....(Commodity News)
• October has been a slow month for farmers harvesting the last of their crops. Only 2.4 days last week were fit for field work across North Dakota, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly crop progress reports.....(Agweek)

Good export for US soybean this year....

• U.S. soy exports set a record for the third consecutive year with exports of 1.56 billion bushels for the Marketing Year 2009. Whole soybean exports totaled 124 billion bushels and soybean meal exports equaled 318 million bushels. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that exports equaled 55 percent of the soybean crop harvested in fall 2008....(Wisconsin Agconnect)

World Production of Soybean still good position...

• Planting progress in Brazil is going in the opposite direction with sources there indicating that up to 20% of the crop has been planted nationally and more than 45% in the biggest soybean-producing state of Mato Grosso. Planting is also in full swing in neighboring Argentina. Conditions are generally favorable in both countries although more rain would be welcome in much of Argentina and in Mato Grosso. (CME group)
  

• Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, aims to be 75 percent self-sufficient in wheat in 10 years, up from 55 percent now, an Egyptian Agriculture Ministry official said on Tuesday....(Wisconsin Agconnection)
  

USDA Export Inspection Oct 26,2009

WASHINGTON, DC   Tue   Oct 26, 2009    USDA MARKET NEWS

                GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
                            - 1,000 BUSHELS -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       CURRENT      PREVIOUS
               ------------ WEEK ENDING -----------  MARKET YEAR   MARKET YEAR
GRAIN           10/22/09      10/15/09      10/23/08    TO DATE       TO DATE

WHEAT            14,336        18,857        22,117       348,392       524,719
RYE                   0             0             0             0             0
OATS                  0             0             3            57           269
BARLEY                0             0           224           818         8,082
FLAXSEED              0            23             0           333           212
CORN             23,996        31,448        25,175       270,149       254,961
SORGHUM           2,431         1,871         2,682        23,019        30,754
SOYBEANS         43,778        40,264        46,988       149,340       144,918
SUNFLOWER             0             0             0             0             0

TOTAL            84,541        92,463        97,189       792,108       963,915
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER
SEEDS.

source : USDA

CBOT news, Oct 26,2009

Summary of CBOT news Oct 26,2009 (Morning)

• Wet weather across the Midwest should support prices this week.
  
• Forecasts call for heavy rains in the western Delta today with that rain pushing east and north into the mid south and Deep South by tomorrow. A band of mostly light rains is expected from East Texas up through southern Wisconsin with areas to the east and west of this band staying mostly dry.
• Good weather in Brazil and the move by many producers to plant early and to plant early maturing soybeans could help ease the tightness expected on the world market for early next year. Traders continue to look for a very large production from Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay for 2010. Beginning January, Brazil will raise the biofuel content of its diesel to 5% from 4% previous.
• Two storms bringing more than 1 inch (2.5 centimeters) of rain will slow harvesting from Texas to New York this week after parts of the Midwest got more than 4 inches in the past three days, Drew Lerner, the president of World Weather Inc., said today in a report. (bloomberg.com)
• China’s animal feed production in September gained 17 percent from the same month last year to 12.88 million metric tons, the China National Grain & Oils Information Center said in an e-mailed message, citing data from the Bureau of Statistics.(bloomberg.com)
• Grains moved slightly higher overnight after corn, wheat and soy rejected new highs on Friday. Wet harvest weather continues to be the key factor. Traders fully expect this afternoon’s crop progress report to again show harvest activity at a record slow pace. (agweb.com)

• The wheat markets started out the week by moving sharply higher on spillover support from neighboring grains and the outside markets. Wheat found strength from rallying corn and soybeans, as the row crops are adding premium back into the market on the fear that wet weather will continue to cause harvest delays. The outside markets lent some additional support with the U.S. dollar moving lower for the day. The dollar is important to wheat as it need to attract international buyers to raise the export demand for U.S. wheat in the current situation of plentiful stocks worldwide. Technical buying also set it, with commodity funds buying nearly 4,000 contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade. (agweek)
• the corn market opened higher and closed with 13.5-cent gains. The market traded higher overnight and that carried over to start the session. The outside markets also were positive and added support. The crop progress report, that was released this afternoon, stated that only 17 percent of the crop had been harvested compared with a five-year average of 46 percent.(agweek)
• Soybeans began the week by closing sharply higher as the market focuses on weather. Weather conditions in the Midwest and Delta are dry at present, but the forecast for wetter weather by mid- to late week has traders adding premium back into the market. Soybeans have been struggling with harvest delays as wet weather has held back progress. This is of concern as there is a need to replenish stocks, which is heightened by the strong export demand. Export inspections are evidence of this demand with this week’s report showing higher-than-expected numbers. Some additional support came from speculative buying, which was a feature in all the grains as a result of the lower U.S. dollar and higher equities.(agweek)

• Crops rediscovered their mojo on Friday, helped by forecasts of wet weather to delay the US corn and soybean harvests, and by continued short-covering in wheat. The dollar did its bit, falling to a fresh 14-month low of $1.5064 against the euro on an official Chinese report saying that Beijing should put more of its foreign exchange reserves into euros and yen. A cheap dollar makes US exports such as farm commodities more competitive. (Agrimoney)

• Frost damages Kentucky soybeans crop. (Southeast farm press)
  

[Germany] PhD Scholarships 2010 at the International Center for Development and Decent Work (ICDD), Kassel University

I added scholarship section to my blog. In this section, I will find out and update scholarship which study in commodity or related.

20 PhD Scholarship Positions for Students from DAC Countries* at the International Center for Development and Decent Work (ICDD). Starting March 1st, 2010. Deadline for applications: November 15th, 2009

ICDD is an interdisciplinary and international scientific network of excellence with the head office located at the University of Kassel, Germany and partner universities in Latin America, Africa and Asia. ICDD is funded under the programme “ex)/(ceed – Higher Education Excellence in Development Co-operation” launched by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) through the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD). Under its Graduate School of Socio-Ecological Research for Development, ICDD invites applications for 20 PhD scholarship positions for studnets from DAC countries at the following internationally renowned universities:

• 8 at the University of Kassel, Germany in the fields of political and agricultural science,
• 2 at the Tata Institute of Social Science (TISS), India in the field of sociology,
• 2 at the Universidade Estaduale de Campinas (Unicamp), Brazil in the field of economics,
• 2 at the University of Witwatersrand (Wits), South Africa in the field of sociology,
• 2 at the University of Agriculture Faisalabad (UAF), Pakistan in agricultural science,
• 2 at the Universidad Autónoma de Yucatan (UADY), Mexico in agricultural science, and
• 2 at Egerton University (EGU), Kenya in agricultural science.

List of DAC countries

Background

ICDD’s objective is to create and transfer knowledge on how to create and improve work and income opportunities in rural and urban regions of developing countries in light of globalization, climate change and urbanization. ICDD encompasses various disciplines such as agricultural science, political science, sociology, economics, and has a network of partner universities in Asia, Africa and Latin America. ICDD closely co-operates with International Labour Organisation and NGOs.

One of ICDD’s core structures for the inter-disciplinary generation of knowledge is the Graduate School of Socio-Ecological Research for Development. PhD projects within this school may be rooted in either the natural or social sciences and should be focused on actor and problem oriented research on sustainable human-environmental relationships and decent livelihoods. ICDD promotes three research clusters as a common framework for the design of prospective PhD projects:

1. Sustainable Value Creation for Decent WorkThis cluster focuses on strategies to increase value creation by developing technologies for more efficient and sustainable use of resources and by improving human skills, preferably along agricultural commodity chains. PhD applicants should be interested in analysing spatially and sectorally detailed urban-rural linkages to address the mobility of people, goods, services, money transfers, information, and associated flows of nutrients, energy and water.
2. Instruments for Promoting Decent WorkThis cluster focuses on the effectiveness of existing instruments in enforcing minimum standards for labour as formulated by the International Labour Organization (ILO) such as public procurement, supply chain governance, and national minimum wages. PhD applicants should be interested in analysing such instruments and their effective implementation in different state contexts. A special focus should be directed towards their impact on or relevance for informal labour relations and particularly on the working conditions and lives of temporary labour migrants.
3. Strategies of Empowerment for Decent WorkThis cluster focuses on the advocacy of good working conditions within economic and political decision-making processes against the background of eroding capacities of workers to engage in collective action due to the growing informal nature of work. Thereby special Attention is directed towards particularly vulnerable groups, such as domestic workers. PhD applicants should be interested in exploring possible sources and forms of organisations to foster empowerment strategies within informal labour relations.

Scholarships

PhD students of the Graduate School will be based either at the University of Kassel or at one of ICDD’s international partner universities (see above), and will be enrolled in the respective university’s PhD training programmes. Please indicate in your application at which university you wish to be located. A joint international workshop programme on subjects of the ICDD, research methods, the linkage between theory and empirical research and for the presentation of the prospective PhD projects will take place every year within the Graduate School.

Scholarships will be awarded for four years under the precondition of a successful extension after one year. The scholarships will cover a country-specific monthly allowance according to DAAD (German Academic Exchange Service) standards. All scholarships will include travel expenses for south-north and south-south mobility if necessary and funding for field research and the participation in Graduate School and ICDD activities.

Application Requirements

• Cover Sheet (cf. attachment)
• above average MA/MSc degree in a disciplines related to the above topics / fields
• proof of English language proficiency
• academic or vocational experience in one of the disciplines related to the thematic field of development and decent work
• letter of recommendation from a professor of the ICDD network
• summary of master thesis (1500 words), if applicable
• preliminary PhD project proposal including topic, research question, short overview of the relevant literature, theoretical approach, research design and methodology (2.000 words)

Please submit your detailed curriculum vitae and scanned copies of the following documents with your application:

• certificate and transcript of records of your recognised bachelor and master degrees in the original language, listing all subjects and grades (If you have not yet completed a Masters program, please include a letter from the person responsible for the program testifying the likelihood of successful completion of the program);
• certificates / proof of English language proficiency;
• university entrance examination certificate listing all subjects and grades (in the original language);
• certificates of additional studies and completion of studies listing all subjects and grades (in the original language);
• translations of all of the above-mentioned documents, if the language of the mentioned certificates is not German, English, French, Spanish or Portuguese.
• certificates of previous professional/vocational experience (if applicable).

Applications with all necessary documents must be submitted electronically as a single pdf** no later than the 15th of November 2009 to: gradschool@icdd.uni-kassel.de

Source:http://cms.uni-kassel.de/unicms/index.php?id=25324

Where Jim Rogers Would Invest $1 Million

From CNBC interview, Jim Rogers told he consider to invest in commodities because Asia economy would pick up, commodities will rise. He said he watch cotton, coffee silver but he is not buy it right now. He said " I don't like to jump on rapidly moving bus."

And another interview with CCTV....

CBOT Grain and Oil seed Pre Opening Oct 20,2009

December corn was down 1 1/4 cents late in the overnight session.

• Trader taking profit on overnight market.
• EU stock was selling off that weak for commodity too.
• An extremely slow harvest progress rate was also considered supportive to corn along with forecasts of rain that will start moving into the NW Corn Belt later today. This rain will move deeper into the Midwest by late Wednesday and Thursday with amounts expected to be heavy in many areas, and this may bring harvest to a halt in many key areas.
• Volume on Monday trade was around 155,000 contract.
• Open interest increase almost 14,000 contract, new money still flow in to Corn futures.
  
• PPI down 0.6% that mean no sign of inflation which bear for commodity.
• An Israeli group is tendering for 24,000 tonnes of corn and 27,000 tonnes of corn products.
• I think trader would taking some profit today price may open lower.

The December wheat contract was 1/4 cent higher overnight.

• Traders indicate that the recent strength in wheat remains based on short covering by funds and other specs and a lower dollar.
• Support on reported of frost in some growing areas in eastern Australia along with stressful high temperatures in Western Australia.
• Traders report that Algeria bought 300,000 tonnes of wheat for November shipment late last week.
• Egypt's ministry of agriculture said today that they are aiming for 75% self-sufficiency in wheat in 10 years. This would be up from 55% at present. Egypt is currently the world's largest importer of wheat.
• Argentina has chance for rain this week, which benefit to wheat and soybean crop.
• Price may lower from taking profit, pressure from outside market Down Jones, EU Stock, Gold price and Crude Oil is lower.

November soybeans were down 4 1/4 cents late in the overnight session.

• Farmers in Argintina began to plant soybeans this past week and progress should accelerate by early November. Conditions there have been improved by recent rains, but some additional rains would still be welcome. Total planted area is expected to soar to a record near 19 million hectares this year which is nearly 10 times the amount of acreage expected to be planted to corn there.
• The Baltic Exchange's main freight index moved to a 2-month high yesterday on improved demand for the biggest cargo vessels.
• Most growing areas in Brazil have seen scattered showers and thunderstorms over the past 24-36 hours. Further light showers are possible through the end of the week. Soil moisture levels are mostly favorable in the central and southern growing areas, but added moisture would be welcome in the north.
• Traders in Malaysian palm oil are said to be concerned over growing stocks of palm oil in October after stock levels rose to 8-month highs in September that pressure on soyoil prices.
• The Outside factor is important for soybean prices. Open lower on Dow Jones and EU stock put pressure on CBOT prices, Soybean prices twice test for 996-1000 resistance level but buying momentum cannot make it pass though this level, I think tonight price may lower.
• Don't forget high world production of soybean..... is still long term bearish factor.
  

Housing Starts in Sept

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for September 2009:

BUILDING PERMITS

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 573,000.
This is 1.2 percent (±1.8%)* below the revised August rate of 580,000 and is 28.9 percent (±2.2%) below the September 2008 estimate of 806,000.

Single-family authorizations in September were at a rate of 450,000; this is 3.0 percent (±1.0%) below the revised August figure of 464,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 104,000 in September.

HOUSING STARTS
Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000. This is 0.5 percent (±9.9%)* above the revised August estimate of 587,000, but is 28.2 percent (±6.7%) below the September 2008 rate of 822,000.

Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 501,000; this is 3.9 percent (±9.3%)* above the revised August figure of 482,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 78,000.

HOUSING COMPLETIONS
Privately-owned housing completions in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000. This is 10.2 percent (±10.4%)* below the revised August estimate of 772,000 and is 39.6 percent (±5.7%) below the September 2008 rate of 1,148,000.

Single-family housing completions in September were at a rate of 464,000; this is 8.3 percent (±14.3%)* below the revised August figure of 506,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 210,000.

This Report from New residential Construction US Census Buruae.

U.S. Producer Prices decline in September

U.S. PPI reported this morning unexpected decline in September. How about inflation?

• The 0.6 percent decrease in prices paid to factories, farmers and other producers lower form estimeated that PPI would be unchanged.
  
• Core PPI that excluding food and fuel declined 0.1 percent.
• Companies paid 4.8 percent less for goods year on year.
• Core PPI were 1.8 percent higher than last year.
• Energy costs plunged 22.1 percent year on year.
• The cost of food fell 0.1 percent from August.

link to U.S. PPI

Wheat crop progress

Winter Wheat:  Percent Planted, 
         Selected States 1/         
--------------------------------------
     :      Week Ending      :      
     :-----------------------: 2004-
State:Oct 18,:Oct 11,:Oct 18,: 2008 
     : 2009  : 2009  : 2008  : Avg. 
--------------------------------------
     :            Percent           
     :                              
AR    :  16      11      17      28  
CA    :  24       8      16      13  
CO    :  95      90      99      98  
ID    :  85      77      87      88  
IL    :  13      12      48      67  
IN    :  22      13      67      69  
KS    :  73      70      81      83  
MI    :  53      35      81      79  
MO    :  15      13      27      42  
MT    :  91      90      96      95  
NE    :  95      92      95      97  
NC    :   6       6      16      14  
OH    :  44      39      86      75  
OK    :  74      68      81      80  
OR    :  77      51      65      72  
SD    :  89      87      93      96  
TX    :  73      64      76      73  
WA    :  94      93      86      91  
     :                              
18 Sts:  69      64      77      78  
--------------------------------------
1/  These 18 States planted 87% of   
   last year's winter wheat acreage.



   Winter Wheat:  Percent Emerged, 
         Selected States 1/         
--------------------------------------
     :      Week Ending      :      
     :-----------------------: 2004-
State:Oct 18,:Oct 11,:Oct 18,: 2008 
     : 2009  : 2009  : 2008  : Avg. 
--------------------------------------
     :            Percent           
     :                              
AR    :   9       7       7      10  
CA    :   4       3       2       4  
CO    :  74      64      85      86  
ID    :  48      33      40      42  
IL    :   6       5      20      27  
IN    :   4       1      28      27  
KS    :  48      38      65      59  
MI    :  23      19      37      40  
MO    :  10       5      11      19  
MT    :  53      51      69      65  
NE    :  78      67      85      86  
NC    :   0       0       5       4  
OH    :  15       4      43      36  
OK    :  60      48      62      59  
OR    :  43      25       9      32  
SD    :  71      56      70      74  
TX    :  50      39      57      49  
WA    :  72      71      62      68  
     :                              
18 Sts:  48      39      56      54 
--------------------------------------
1/  These 18 States planted 87% of   
   last year's winter wheat acreage.

link to Crop Progress

Soybean crop progress

Soybeans: Percent Dropping Leaves,
Selected States 1/
--------------------------------------
: Week Ending :
:-----------------------: 2004-
State:Oct 18,:Oct 11,:Oct 18,: 2008
: 2009 : 2009 : 2008 : Avg.
--------------------------------------
: Percent
:
AR : 84 70 80 88
IL : 93 84 95 99
IN : 95 90 97 98
IA : 98 97 97 99
KS : 94 87 90 95
KY : 95 87 96 96
LA : 98 92 99 98
MI : 99 93 100 98
MN : 100 99 100 100
MS : 91 81 97 99
MO : 83 73 78 92
NE : 100 95 99 100
NC : 72 58 65 69
ND : 100 98 100 100
OH : 99 96 100 99
SD : 100 100 100 100
TN : 89 83 95 96
WI : 97 90 100 99
:
18 Sts: 95 89 95 97
--------------------------------------
1/ These 18 States planted 95% of
last year's soybean acreage.



Soybeans: Percent Percent Harvested,
Selected States 1/
--------------------------------------
: Week Ending :
:-----------------------: 2004-
State:Oct 18,:Oct 11,:Oct 18,: 2008
: 2009 : 2009 : 2008 : Avg.
--------------------------------------
: Percent
:
AR : 26 19 42 60
IL : 13 10 60 79
IN : 27 19 71 72
IA : 37 29 78 85
KS : 42 37 52 57
KY : 25 18 46 48
LA : 64 63 88 88
MI : 28 7 69 61
MN : 34 26 81 83
MS : 49 43 84 93
MO : 22 17 26 49
NE : 55 45 72 75
NC : 8 6 8 10
ND : 21 17 69 82
OH : 34 28 77 68
SD : 30 25 73 77
TN : 22 17 44 54
WI : 14 7 59 60
:
18 Sts: 30 23 64 72
--------------------------------------
1/ These 18 States planted 95% of
last year's soybean acreage.

link to Crop Progress

USDA Corn Crop progress and condition

Corn:  Percent Mature,      
        Selected States 1/        
--------------------------------------
    :      Week Ending      :     
    :-----------------------: 2004-
State:Oct 18,:Oct 11,:Oct 18,: 2008
    : 2009  : 2009  : 2008  : Avg.
--------------------------------------
    :            Percent          
    :                             
CO    :   90      79      96      96
IL    :   79      56      97      99
IN    :   77      69      92      96
IA    :   93      86      91      98
KS    :   98      95      95      99
KY    :   97      94     100     100
MI    :   69      61      95      96
MN    :   84      71      93      97
MO    :   93      89      94      99
NE    :   78      76      82      94
NC    :  100     100     100     100
ND    :   41      37      87      89
OH    :   82      67      89      94
PA    :   80      62      94      95
SD    :   91      84      91      96
TN    :   99      97     100     100
TX    :   99      97      96      99
WI    :   70      58      89      91
    :                             
18 Sts:   83      74      92      97
--------------------------------------
1/  These 18 States planted 92% of  
  last year's corn acreage.



      Corn:  Percent Harvested,      
        Selected States 1/        
--------------------------------------
    :      Week Ending      :     
    :-----------------------: 2004-
State:Oct 18,:Oct 11,:Oct 18,: 2008
    : 2009  : 2009  : 2008  : Avg.
--------------------------------------
    :            Percent          
    :                             
CO    :  34      28      43      34 
IL    :  11       6      30      68 
IN    :  15      10      39      49 
IA    :  10       6      12      33 
KS    :  44      40      51      74 
KY    :  53      46      84      88 
MI    :   3       3      23      27 
MN    :   3       2      17      31 
MO    :  40      37      47      77 
NE    :  13      10      17      34 
NC    :  89      87      91      94 
ND    :   1       0       3      20 
OH    :   8       6      35      31 
PA    :  25      18      43      50 
SD    :   6       2      14      27 
TN    :  64      54      94      97 
TX    :  84      82      77      89 
WI    :   5       2      16      25 
    :                             
18 Sts:  17      13      28      46 
--------------------------------------
1/  These 18 States planted 92% of  
  last year's corn acreage.



 Corn: Crop Condition by Percent,
         Selected States,         
     Week Ending Oct 18, 2009     
--------------------------------------
State : VP  :  P  :  F  :  G  : EX
--------------------------------------
      :           Percent         
      :                           
CO      :  2    12    23    48    15
IL      :  2     7    25    52    14
IN      :  3     8    26    51    12
IA      :  2     5    18    51    24
KS      :  2     5    23    48    22
KY      :  0     1     7    49    43
MI      :  4    12    27    46    11
MN      :  2     4    21    57    16
MO      :  3     8    29    45    15
NE      :  2     5    11    54    28
NC      :  5    15    24    43    13
ND      :  2     7    32    46    13
OH      :  1     4    20    47    28
PA      :  1     6    15    45    33
SD      :  1     3    16    52    28
TN      :  3     5    14    52    26
TX      : 25    14    24    31     6
WI      :  2     9    25    50    14
      :                           
18 Sts  :  3     6    21    50    20
      :                           
Prev Wk :  3     6    21    51    19
Prev Yr :  4     9    25    47    15
--------------------------------------
VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent.
National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2008

link to Crop Progress

Wheat technical outlook Oct 19,2009

Wheat trading around 515.25 up 16.5

• Money flow in to wheat contract last week, net short position of wheat was reduce.
• but wheat have no bullish factor to support its prices. A big world supply and high export competition still bearish.
• The support would come from outside market and CBOT family is still rising.
• Some concern of wet weather would delay planting of soft red winter wheat.
• Argentina wheat planting had benefit from rain and cool temperature.
• USDA inspection reported actual is 18.627 million bushels inline with expected at 16-21 million bushels.
  

corn technical outlook Oct 19,2009

Corn price trading at 383.25 up 11.25

• Delay harvest should support prices.
• Rain should return to midweek this week.
• USDA inspection for corn reported actual is 24.569 million bushels inline with estimated at 20-41 million bushels.
• Support from outside market, crude oil still higher and also weak dollar.
• Next objective resistance is 390-400 cent/bushels.
  

Soybean technical outlook 19 Oct 2009

I'm a bit late to update blog today.....while i write this blog Nov09 soybean are trading around 992.25 up 14.75 . Soybean trading follow crude oil that still higher and a mild support from weak dollar. Speculative money flow in to soybean last week that add around 40,000 contract net long was a support for bean prices. The weather condition that impact to harvest delay is still sensitive factor for soybean price , the forecast show drier weather in the US Midwest will good for harvest progress before more rains expected during mid week to next week would disrupts the harvest again. USDA export inspection reported actual is 39.092 million bushel better than expected at 15-30 million bushels. The next technical upside resistance of Nov09 soybean contract is 996-1000 cent, I think price should rally to this resistance level again.

USDA inspection Oct 19,2009

GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
                           - 1,000 BUSHELS -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                      CURRENT      PREVIOUS
              ------------ WEEK ENDING -----------  MARKET YEAR   MARKET YEAR
GRAIN           10/15/09      10/08/09      10/16/08    TO DATE       TO DATE

WHEAT            18,627        18,906        19,043       332,648       502,602
RYE                   0             0             0             0             0
OATS                  0             2             3            54           266
BARLEY                0            12           449           818         7,858
FLAXSEED             23            17             0           333           212
CORN             24,569        23,309        31,728       238,774       229,786
SORGHUM           1,678           289         3,928        20,115        28,072
SOYBEANS         39,092        25,308        45,005       104,215        97,930
SUNFLOWER             0             0             0             0             0

TOTAL            83,989        67,843       100,156       696,957       866,726
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER
SEEDS.

link to USDA Export inspection

China Soybean prices increase from Goverment action

The China's cash soybean prices in main planting areas were increase last week. From the government promising to purchase soybean crop this year for national reserve that make farmer delay sell to processor. China's government will continue to buy major grain for supported prices if prices fall after the harvest season. The expectation of buying prices would higher than last year prices of CNY3,700 per tonnes.

China soybean prices;

• Bei'an, in Heilongjian provice = CNY3,450 per tonnes (last week CNY 3,500 per tonnes)
  
• Jiamusi, in Heilongjiang, = CNY3,520 per tonnes (last week CNY3,500 per tonnes)
  

By the way, China's Soyoil prices were higher from local stock become lower.

China soyoil prices;

• Rizhao in Shandong = 7,050 - 7,250 CNY per tonnes (last week 6,950 CNY per tonnes)
  
• Dongguan in Guangdong = 7,150 CNY per tonnes (last week 6,900 CNY per tonnes)

China soymeal prices were increase because imported soybean arrivals decline in this month, price would remain in high levels by strong demand.

China soymeal prices;

• Rizhao = 3,520-3,580 CNY per tonnes (last week 3,430 CNY per tonnes)
• Dongguan = 3,500 CNY per tonnes (last week 3,460 CNY per tonnes)

USDA weekly export sales

USDA weekly export sales of weekend 8 Oct 2009

Corn
Actual = 631,800 Tonnes, Est 600,000 - 800,000 Tonnes

Net sales of 631,800 MT were up 21 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (190,400 MT, including 56,600 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 10,300 MT), South Korea (119,400 MT, including 123,400 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,700 MT), Colombia (73,800 MT), Mexico (70,600 MT), the Dominican Republic (36,900 MT), Morocco (31,100 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the United Arab Emirates (29,600 MT, switched from unknown destinations), and Taiwan (27,300 MT). Decreases were reported for Honduras (7,600 MT). Optional origin sales totaling 1,700 MT for Colombia were canceled.

Wheat
Actual = 480,200 Tonnes, Est 450,000 - 650,000 Tonnes

Net sales of 480,200 metric tons were down 37 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (126,900 MT), Nigeria (38,700 MT), the Philippines (38,200 MT), unknown destinations (36,600 MT), Canada (34,200 MT), Guatemala (33,100 MT, including 30,100 MT switched from unknown destinations), the United Arab Emirates (27,500 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (26,200 MT), and Algeria (25,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Brazil (1,800 MT).

Soybean
Actual = 654,500 Tonnes, Est 450,000 - 650,000 Tonnes

Net sales of 654,500 MT were up 45 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (184,100 MT), Taiwan (176,200 MT), France (60,000 MT), Mexico (59,800 MT), Saudi Arabia (55,000 MT, switched from China), and South Korea (31,800 MT, including 29,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (45,300 MT).

More Detail : USDA