CBOT Apl 13
Last changes
SMK 292.7 +7.6
SMN 295.2 +7.6
SMQ 296.1 +7.3
SMU 297.1 +7.3
SMV 297.7 +7.1
SMZ 299.8 +7.1
SMF7 300.1 +7
SK 955.75 +19.5
SN 964.5 +19.75
SQ 966.25 +19.5
SU 964.75 +19
SX 966 +18.25
SF7 970 +18.25
BOK 33.96 +0.27
BON 34.24 +0.28
BOQ 34.33 +0.27
CK 373.50 +10.75
CN 377.00 +11.5
WK 461.50 +9
WN 467.50 +8.75
Soybeans continue to rock and roll to the upside, tacking on further gains and new highs this morning making this rally a no-doubter. Since moving through the 200 day moving average to the upside, funds have embraced the long side of the bean ledger with the March 31 planting report giving them the key reason to jump on the bull bandwagon. Additional news for the bean bull was released in yesterday's General Administration of Customs of China who reported that their bean imports climbed to 6.1 million tonnes, a record for March due to more attractive hog breeding margins.
US farmers were good sellers on the bean rally yesterday but the stronger Brazilian currency has shut off any selling from the Brazilian farmer. President Rousseff will meet her fate as to impeachment on April 17th when the lower house will vote on her future. And the Argentine farmer, who was expected to flood the market with beans after Macri's election, has been only a steady but lighter than expected seller to the market. Thus the bean rally remains firm without a lot of motivated sellers but viewed by chartists as a rally with legs.
Soybeans opened higher and continued to stay in steady - to -higher trade through the morning. Meal prices hit a new high in the May contract at 292.20, while bean prices struggled to get over the major benchmark at $9.50. Crush values improved further in the morning with prices trading from 63c/bu to 64c/bu. Continued wet weather in Argentina is problematic for meal shippers delaying harvest and adding to questionable quality. Meanwhile a still firmer Brazilian currency (courtesy of impeachment talks) is shutting off South American farmer selling on this bean rally. As opposed to the S. American farmer, the US farmer continues to sell both old and new crop. May soyoil values remained steady but started to trade lower on the day as traders continue to unwind previous buy soyoil / sell meal trade. Oilshare continued to lose more than 2% trading again to a corrective setback that took July down to 36.60%.
GRAINS
In the meantime the new shorts added to corn last week are underwater once again (they sold the market heavily after the March 31 report) as grains follow the soy complex rally though grudgingly so. Would have to say that the corn market now has some weather premium built into it, though the concern is still situated in Brazil where hot and dry conditions persist while the Safrina crop pollinates. Too wet concerns still exist in Argentina.
The corn market opened higher and triggered buy-stops when prices traded over key resistance at $3.71. The rally probably stemmed from recent shorts once again having to get out of the market to be told by open interest changes if they decrease tomorrow. For today the trade remains technical as corn prices try to stay in step with beans. Wheat prices also came back from near contract lows with the chart moving above key resistance at $4.58 which triggered more buy-stops as well. The July wheat / corn spread traded to new lows at 91c. Spreads strengthened further with July / Dec corn moving intro a 5 1/4c carry.
Fund recap
bot 5000 wheat
bot 15,000 corn
bot 7000 beans
bot 2000 meal
bot 2000 soyoil
The Dow opened 62 pts higher today and continued to maintain a bias to the upside trading over 140 pts higher. Crude oil traded to new highs at $42.42/barrel.
CLOSING COMMENTS
Fundamentally this rally has left many scratching their heads in lieu of more than ample world supply. Nothing has changed much to explain price action except perhaps money flows. Perhaps the Ag space is being viewed as a good investment space for now given the 3 year cycle down. Nonetheless the short has been squeezed in this market, and sometimes where there is smoke there is fire. Is the weather in Brazil worse than calculated and will the rains in Argentina begin to slow? Think that the market is just saying now that all the bearish factors have been noted, but suspect we are getting very close to the upper end of trading ranges with this recent rally
Wednesday, April 13, 2016
CBOT Apr12 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Apl 12
Last changes
SMK 285.1 +5
SMN 287.6 +5.1
SMQ 288.8 +5.1
SMU 289.8 +5
SMV 290.6 +5.1
SMZ 292.7 +5.2
SMF7 293.1 +5
SK 936.25 +8
SN 944.75 +8
SQ 946.75 +7.75
SU 945.75 +7.5
SX 947.75 +7
SF7 951.75 +7
BOK 33.69 -0.21
BON 33.96 -0.22
BOQ 34.06 -0.22
CK 362.75 +6
CN 365.50 +5.75
WK 452.50 +5.25
WN 458.75 +4.5
The story of the morning is higher soybean trade with the May contract traveling to new chart highs at 9.36 1/4c. Funds continue to buy beans as 1) a hedge against their huge fund short in grains and 2) as a continued reaction to the nearly 93.6 million acres of corn stated would be planted March 31. Beans are reaching out to the farmer through price, with the last of the fund short in meal heading out the door. The other feature remains the unwinding of previous buy soyoil / sell meal trade which is pushing the soyoil market to bottom support levels. Oilshare is correcting after trading over 39% back to 37.24%.
In terms of reports, we have planting progress which was lower for winter wheat and perhaps better than expected for corn given all the rains. Corn progress was 4% complete versus the five year average of 5%. Winter wheat conditions were down 3% - but then again they were surprisingly better than expected last week. The big ticket item here is weather in the plains and not the numbers received today. If the big rain event over HRW areas hits, we could see more pressure applied in grains.
PALM OIL - April down 23 ringgits on more selling pressure / profit-taking. Small cash trades noted
Stocks are called higher today with the US dollar slightly firmer and gold prices higher.
Planting progress
corn: 4% planted versus 5% average
Winter wheat: 56% good/excellent - down 3% from last week. This is still better than a year ago when conditions were 42%
Trade is focused on good rains forecast across the plains this weekend
Last changes
SMK 285.1 +5
SMN 287.6 +5.1
SMQ 288.8 +5.1
SMU 289.8 +5
SMV 290.6 +5.1
SMZ 292.7 +5.2
SMF7 293.1 +5
SK 936.25 +8
SN 944.75 +8
SQ 946.75 +7.75
SU 945.75 +7.5
SX 947.75 +7
SF7 951.75 +7
BOK 33.69 -0.21
BON 33.96 -0.22
BOQ 34.06 -0.22
CK 362.75 +6
CN 365.50 +5.75
WK 452.50 +5.25
WN 458.75 +4.5
The story of the morning is higher soybean trade with the May contract traveling to new chart highs at 9.36 1/4c. Funds continue to buy beans as 1) a hedge against their huge fund short in grains and 2) as a continued reaction to the nearly 93.6 million acres of corn stated would be planted March 31. Beans are reaching out to the farmer through price, with the last of the fund short in meal heading out the door. The other feature remains the unwinding of previous buy soyoil / sell meal trade which is pushing the soyoil market to bottom support levels. Oilshare is correcting after trading over 39% back to 37.24%.
In terms of reports, we have planting progress which was lower for winter wheat and perhaps better than expected for corn given all the rains. Corn progress was 4% complete versus the five year average of 5%. Winter wheat conditions were down 3% - but then again they were surprisingly better than expected last week. The big ticket item here is weather in the plains and not the numbers received today. If the big rain event over HRW areas hits, we could see more pressure applied in grains.
PALM OIL - April down 23 ringgits on more selling pressure / profit-taking. Small cash trades noted
Stocks are called higher today with the US dollar slightly firmer and gold prices higher.
Planting progress
corn: 4% planted versus 5% average
Winter wheat: 56% good/excellent - down 3% from last week. This is still better than a year ago when conditions were 42%
Trade is focused on good rains forecast across the plains this weekend
CBOT Apr11 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Apl 11
Last changes
SMK 280.1 +6.4
SMN 282.5 +6.4
SMQ 283.7 +6.4
SMU 284.8 +6.1
SMV 285.5 +5.9
SMZ 287.5 +5.6
SMF7 288.1 +5.3
SK 928.25 +11.5
SN 936.75 +11.75
SQ 939 +11.5
SU 938.25 +10.5
SX 940.75 +10
SF7 944.75 +9.5
BOK 33.90 -0.04
BON 34.18 -0.03
BOQ 34.28 -0.04
CK 356.75 -5.5
CN 359.75 -5.25
WK 447.25 -13
WN 454.25 -12.5
Today crop progress will be released for corn, and we begin with a five year average target of 5% planted. Given rains in the Midwest, doubt that we have a number beyond that. As to a better correlation between price action and weather, we have wheat to look at which is lower this morning as rains appear ready to bring relief to dry areas in the southern plains. Wheat is lower this morning - corn is following. Longer range forecasts look for drier and warmer weather and farmers have been waiting for the chance to get started on their corn crop. As to the other corn story dryness continues in Brazil's Safrinha corn crop, and there is no relief in sight. Corn is slightly lower.
The soy complex is higher today with more buy bean / sell corn trade in an attempt to encourage more farmers to plant beans. The May bean contract hit a new high today at 9.23 3/4 after it setback but could not break the $9.00 level. Meal is higher with soyoil struggling. The uptrend in soyoil futures has been extremely strong, but all eyes were on the MPOB report. Instead of an all-out surprise, production was noted as better than expected with ending stocks a bit lower. While the bulls did not get the number they wanted, neither did the bear. May soyoil futures are a touch weaker but all eyes will be on key support points today which in this case is 3355 should we get there.
The April WASDE will be released tomorrow at 11:00 Chicago time, and export inspections today at 10:00.
There is a symbolic vote today in the afternoon as Brazil's congressional committee convenes to consider a recommendation to impeach President Dilma Rousseff. This vote is to be followed by a vote in Brazil's lower house of Congress in the following weeks. In reaction to the turmoil, the Brazilian currency firmed to new highs, a path that will shut down farmer selling activity.
At 10:00 export inspections were released as follows:
wheat 339,226 vs. 327,881 tons wk ago
corn 1,121,902 vs. 1,091,905 wk ago
bean: 386,786 vs. 226,828 wk ago
May beans found good buying activity on pullbacks, taking the flat-price up to new trading range highs even beyond trendline resistance which for the day was $9.27. The initial strength put a floor under soyoil, allowing it to trade to 3432 (May). But considering the record length in soyoil, funds were eying rallies as a way to get out of partial bullish positions. Strength in meal futures was a key feature as traders bought meal / sold soyoil unwinding that spread. Oilshare remained weak breaking 38% while crush values firmed to 59/60c/bu on meal's new -found strength. The Brazilian real continues to firm as more talk circulates that President Rousseff could be impeached. This morning the currency firmed to $3.52/USD, which is shutting off farmer selling. Certainly the US farmer is not interested at this point, either....particularly if they are out planting.
CLOSING COMMENTS
Today's weakness in grains / new highs in soy is part technical, part expectations for the USDA report tomorrow, and a whole lot of weather. Funds are short grains and not wrong. It is expected that corn plantings will come in 1-2% planted vs. the five year average of 5%. No big deal....yet. Wheat conditions were surprisingly resilient last week, but the impact of continuous weeks of dry weather may show up tomorrow creating a turn-around Tuesday into the report. And speaking of unwinding - get the feeling that the new highs in beans could be high enough for now, or getting awfully close. Soyoil could struggle with a chart that is beginning to look toppy and must now prove that lower key support can hold.
Last changes
SMK 280.1 +6.4
SMN 282.5 +6.4
SMQ 283.7 +6.4
SMU 284.8 +6.1
SMV 285.5 +5.9
SMZ 287.5 +5.6
SMF7 288.1 +5.3
SK 928.25 +11.5
SN 936.75 +11.75
SQ 939 +11.5
SU 938.25 +10.5
SX 940.75 +10
SF7 944.75 +9.5
BOK 33.90 -0.04
BON 34.18 -0.03
BOQ 34.28 -0.04
CK 356.75 -5.5
CN 359.75 -5.25
WK 447.25 -13
WN 454.25 -12.5
Today crop progress will be released for corn, and we begin with a five year average target of 5% planted. Given rains in the Midwest, doubt that we have a number beyond that. As to a better correlation between price action and weather, we have wheat to look at which is lower this morning as rains appear ready to bring relief to dry areas in the southern plains. Wheat is lower this morning - corn is following. Longer range forecasts look for drier and warmer weather and farmers have been waiting for the chance to get started on their corn crop. As to the other corn story dryness continues in Brazil's Safrinha corn crop, and there is no relief in sight. Corn is slightly lower.
The soy complex is higher today with more buy bean / sell corn trade in an attempt to encourage more farmers to plant beans. The May bean contract hit a new high today at 9.23 3/4 after it setback but could not break the $9.00 level. Meal is higher with soyoil struggling. The uptrend in soyoil futures has been extremely strong, but all eyes were on the MPOB report. Instead of an all-out surprise, production was noted as better than expected with ending stocks a bit lower. While the bulls did not get the number they wanted, neither did the bear. May soyoil futures are a touch weaker but all eyes will be on key support points today which in this case is 3355 should we get there.
The April WASDE will be released tomorrow at 11:00 Chicago time, and export inspections today at 10:00.
There is a symbolic vote today in the afternoon as Brazil's congressional committee convenes to consider a recommendation to impeach President Dilma Rousseff. This vote is to be followed by a vote in Brazil's lower house of Congress in the following weeks. In reaction to the turmoil, the Brazilian currency firmed to new highs, a path that will shut down farmer selling activity.
At 10:00 export inspections were released as follows:
wheat 339,226 vs. 327,881 tons wk ago
corn 1,121,902 vs. 1,091,905 wk ago
bean: 386,786 vs. 226,828 wk ago
May beans found good buying activity on pullbacks, taking the flat-price up to new trading range highs even beyond trendline resistance which for the day was $9.27. The initial strength put a floor under soyoil, allowing it to trade to 3432 (May). But considering the record length in soyoil, funds were eying rallies as a way to get out of partial bullish positions. Strength in meal futures was a key feature as traders bought meal / sold soyoil unwinding that spread. Oilshare remained weak breaking 38% while crush values firmed to 59/60c/bu on meal's new -found strength. The Brazilian real continues to firm as more talk circulates that President Rousseff could be impeached. This morning the currency firmed to $3.52/USD, which is shutting off farmer selling. Certainly the US farmer is not interested at this point, either....particularly if they are out planting.
CLOSING COMMENTS
Today's weakness in grains / new highs in soy is part technical, part expectations for the USDA report tomorrow, and a whole lot of weather. Funds are short grains and not wrong. It is expected that corn plantings will come in 1-2% planted vs. the five year average of 5%. No big deal....yet. Wheat conditions were surprisingly resilient last week, but the impact of continuous weeks of dry weather may show up tomorrow creating a turn-around Tuesday into the report. And speaking of unwinding - get the feeling that the new highs in beans could be high enough for now, or getting awfully close. Soyoil could struggle with a chart that is beginning to look toppy and must now prove that lower key support can hold.
CBOT Apr8 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Apl8
Last changes
SMK 273.7 +6.9
SMN 276.1 +6.7
SMQ 277.3 +6.5
SMU 278.7 +6.6
SMV 279.6 +6.3
SMZ 281.9 +6.3
SMF7 282.8 +6.1
SK 916.75 +12.25
SN 925 +12.25
SQ 927.5 +11.75
SU 927.75 +11.5
SX 930.75 +11.25
SF7 935.25 +11
BOK 33.94 -0.16
BON 34.21 -0.16
BOQ 34.32 -0.16
CK 362.25 +0.75
CN 365.00 +1
WK 460.25 +3.25
WN 466.75 +2.25
Beans and meal starting the day higher. Meal begins the day at lower support while soyoil futures are trying to find a place of support after reaching new trading range highs. With record soyoil length the case, we could see continued weakness triggered by nervous longs who are waiting for the most important report for soyoil to be addressed next Monday.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will address palm production, with current figures about 25% below last year. Therefore would look for a slight continuation of the buy meal /sell soyoil trend to stay in place until the numbers are released and clarified on Monday. Mildly supportive to meal is also the fact that Argentina has received extensive rainfall in the last week as harvest continues. While this week features a drier outlook, rains in Argy may return again. Soyoil futures are weaker against meal this morning. The May soyoil low also begins right on key support today meaning that a larger break is going to perhaps create a downside push.
The major feature in the soy complex was that of firmer meal futures against weaker soyoil values. By the noontime hour, May beans were trading back towards previous trading range highs while meal values rebounded off the lows of the trading range past key resistance at 269.00 which triggered buy-stops and short-covering from funds still holding bearish positions. May and July oilshare traded down to 38% after rising over 39% on soyoil's previous continuous strength. Soybean trade firmed towards recent highs as funds added to their overall net long position, balancing it off against a major corn short. July crush values improved towards 60c/bu on meal's technical rebound. Spreads strengthened with July /Nov beans trading into a 6c carry. Traders were buying beans against corn.
Cool wet weather continues to get in the way of corn planting, but next week the outlook begin to head into warmer and drier conditions. Should that occur, corn futures could begin to weaken once more. Directionally traders continue to look for places to sell the market, although since the report those that have sold are underwater. With a cool and rainy forecast this week, would not expect the support under corn to weaken much. Neither can the market rally given the amount of acres posted for corn (93.6 million) on March 31.
Corn futures congested further but maintained a firm direction. The chatter under this market is that 1. we have seen more export business as of late due to lower prices and 2. that northern Brazil's second corn crop is now suffering due to extreme dryness. This is becoming more of an issue as the season moves along and it is attracting more attention as each week passes without rain. May wheat values traded higher on short-covering. Traders were back to buying wheat /selling corn once again.
Fund recap
bot 3000 wheat
bot 5000 beans
bot 4000 meal
sold 1000 soyoil
CLOSING COMMENTS
All weather dependent right now. Feels like the trade has sort of rejected the 93.6 million acres of corn and in the future will be looking at weather both in North and South America given the extreme dryness in Brazil. We are close to trading range highs in beans, which is really a surprise to many traders. Think we go out in continuing strength rather than the other way around, as meal shorts clearly want out. May soyoil may sit and close around 34c refusing to break much but under pressure from traders not willing to buy more until the palm oil production report on Monday is out of the way. Monday will be an important day for soyoil and in that regard maybe for beans as well.
Last changes
SMK 273.7 +6.9
SMN 276.1 +6.7
SMQ 277.3 +6.5
SMU 278.7 +6.6
SMV 279.6 +6.3
SMZ 281.9 +6.3
SMF7 282.8 +6.1
SK 916.75 +12.25
SN 925 +12.25
SQ 927.5 +11.75
SU 927.75 +11.5
SX 930.75 +11.25
SF7 935.25 +11
BOK 33.94 -0.16
BON 34.21 -0.16
BOQ 34.32 -0.16
CK 362.25 +0.75
CN 365.00 +1
WK 460.25 +3.25
WN 466.75 +2.25
Beans and meal starting the day higher. Meal begins the day at lower support while soyoil futures are trying to find a place of support after reaching new trading range highs. With record soyoil length the case, we could see continued weakness triggered by nervous longs who are waiting for the most important report for soyoil to be addressed next Monday.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will address palm production, with current figures about 25% below last year. Therefore would look for a slight continuation of the buy meal /sell soyoil trend to stay in place until the numbers are released and clarified on Monday. Mildly supportive to meal is also the fact that Argentina has received extensive rainfall in the last week as harvest continues. While this week features a drier outlook, rains in Argy may return again. Soyoil futures are weaker against meal this morning. The May soyoil low also begins right on key support today meaning that a larger break is going to perhaps create a downside push.
The major feature in the soy complex was that of firmer meal futures against weaker soyoil values. By the noontime hour, May beans were trading back towards previous trading range highs while meal values rebounded off the lows of the trading range past key resistance at 269.00 which triggered buy-stops and short-covering from funds still holding bearish positions. May and July oilshare traded down to 38% after rising over 39% on soyoil's previous continuous strength. Soybean trade firmed towards recent highs as funds added to their overall net long position, balancing it off against a major corn short. July crush values improved towards 60c/bu on meal's technical rebound. Spreads strengthened with July /Nov beans trading into a 6c carry. Traders were buying beans against corn.
Cool wet weather continues to get in the way of corn planting, but next week the outlook begin to head into warmer and drier conditions. Should that occur, corn futures could begin to weaken once more. Directionally traders continue to look for places to sell the market, although since the report those that have sold are underwater. With a cool and rainy forecast this week, would not expect the support under corn to weaken much. Neither can the market rally given the amount of acres posted for corn (93.6 million) on March 31.
Corn futures congested further but maintained a firm direction. The chatter under this market is that 1. we have seen more export business as of late due to lower prices and 2. that northern Brazil's second corn crop is now suffering due to extreme dryness. This is becoming more of an issue as the season moves along and it is attracting more attention as each week passes without rain. May wheat values traded higher on short-covering. Traders were back to buying wheat /selling corn once again.
Fund recap
bot 3000 wheat
bot 5000 beans
bot 4000 meal
sold 1000 soyoil
CLOSING COMMENTS
All weather dependent right now. Feels like the trade has sort of rejected the 93.6 million acres of corn and in the future will be looking at weather both in North and South America given the extreme dryness in Brazil. We are close to trading range highs in beans, which is really a surprise to many traders. Think we go out in continuing strength rather than the other way around, as meal shorts clearly want out. May soyoil may sit and close around 34c refusing to break much but under pressure from traders not willing to buy more until the palm oil production report on Monday is out of the way. Monday will be an important day for soyoil and in that regard maybe for beans as well.
Friday, April 1, 2016
CBOT Apr1 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Apl 1
Last changes
SMK 272.3 +2
SMN 275.1 +2
SMQ 276.3 +1.9
SMU 277.4 +1.8
SMV 278.3 +1.7
SMZ 280.4 +1.6
SMF7 281.2 +1.6
SK 918.25 +7.5
SN 926 +8.25
SQ 928.5 +8
SU 928.5 +7.75
SX 932.25 +7.5
SF7 936.5 +8
BOK 34.45 +0.23
BON 34.67 +0.23
BOQ 34.78 +0.25
CK 354.00 +2.5
CN 357.75 +2
WK 475.75 +2.25
WN 483.00 +2.25
The markets opened as called with corn lower on more fund selling. Soyoil values held in with beans during the first part of the session but meal traded lower on the day. Sell corn and buy beans/ wheat was the fan favorite trade of the day given 93 million acres of corn to be planted this spring.
The soy complex opened higher with beans and soyoil futures trying to set new highs for the day. May soyoil did manage to notch a new high at 3471 on early fund buying activity before prices turned towards the middle of the trading range. The weakness in soy came from meal which traded lower on the day after also trying to move over nighttime highs. Meal's relative weakness against soyoil strength pushed July oilshare to .3883% - new highs since the report yesterday. More eyes are now centered on the July bean /Dec corn spread given the larger corn acres yesterday. The spread suggests that more acreage should begin to favor beans over corn. The Brazilian real continues firm which is shutting down farmer selling as the government decides what to do with the current President.
Corn futures found new contract lows on more fund selling from the start of the day. Once again the market moved into consumer pricing activity which steadied values at the overall lows. The contract May wheat is keeping a steady trade against corn with prices not going down and funds not interested in selling give the short they already have. Wheat values stood their ground today with somewhat impressive price action. WIth reduced acreage (some coming from smaller winter wheat seedings), and still dry concerns in the Southern plains wheat prices should begin to maintain a steady trading range bias.
Fund recap
sold 4000 corn
bot 2000 soyoil
Last changes
SMK 272.3 +2
SMN 275.1 +2
SMQ 276.3 +1.9
SMU 277.4 +1.8
SMV 278.3 +1.7
SMZ 280.4 +1.6
SMF7 281.2 +1.6
SK 918.25 +7.5
SN 926 +8.25
SQ 928.5 +8
SU 928.5 +7.75
SX 932.25 +7.5
SF7 936.5 +8
BOK 34.45 +0.23
BON 34.67 +0.23
BOQ 34.78 +0.25
CK 354.00 +2.5
CN 357.75 +2
WK 475.75 +2.25
WN 483.00 +2.25
The markets opened as called with corn lower on more fund selling. Soyoil values held in with beans during the first part of the session but meal traded lower on the day. Sell corn and buy beans/ wheat was the fan favorite trade of the day given 93 million acres of corn to be planted this spring.
The soy complex opened higher with beans and soyoil futures trying to set new highs for the day. May soyoil did manage to notch a new high at 3471 on early fund buying activity before prices turned towards the middle of the trading range. The weakness in soy came from meal which traded lower on the day after also trying to move over nighttime highs. Meal's relative weakness against soyoil strength pushed July oilshare to .3883% - new highs since the report yesterday. More eyes are now centered on the July bean /Dec corn spread given the larger corn acres yesterday. The spread suggests that more acreage should begin to favor beans over corn. The Brazilian real continues firm which is shutting down farmer selling as the government decides what to do with the current President.
Corn futures found new contract lows on more fund selling from the start of the day. Once again the market moved into consumer pricing activity which steadied values at the overall lows. The contract May wheat is keeping a steady trade against corn with prices not going down and funds not interested in selling give the short they already have. Wheat values stood their ground today with somewhat impressive price action. WIth reduced acreage (some coming from smaller winter wheat seedings), and still dry concerns in the Southern plains wheat prices should begin to maintain a steady trading range bias.
Fund recap
sold 4000 corn
bot 2000 soyoil
CBOT Mar31 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 31
Last changes
SMK 270.3 -1.6
SMN 273.1 -1.5
SMQ 274.4 -1.5
SMU 275.6 -1.4
SMV 276.6 -1.4
SMZ 278.8 -1.2
SMF7 279.6 -1.2
SK 910.75 +1.75
SN 917.75 +1.5
SQ 920.5 +2
SU 920.75 +1.75
SX 924.75 +1.75
SF7 928.5 +2
BOK 34.22 +0.43
BON 34.44 +0.43
BOQ 34.53 +0.43
CK 351.50 -15.5
CN 355.75 -15.75
WK 473.50 +9.5
WN 480.75 +9.25
At 11:00 the report was released:
Corn: 93.6 mil acres vs. average est at 89.9
Soybeans: 82.2 mil acres vs. average est at 83.05
All Wheat: 49.6 mil acres vs. average est at 51.702
Stocks Mar 1
Corn 7.808 vs. average est at 7.801
Soybeans: 1.531 vs. average est at 1.556
Wheat: 1.372 vs. average est at 1.356
Shocker: higher corn acres, much over the higher end of market expectations. The acreage was price negative for corn futures which quickly posted new contract lows. Wheat acreage was under expectations with beans more neutral. More of the volume was in the grain trade as corn prices worked lower.
SOY
Bean, meal, and soyoil prices opened on a steady note and stayed positive into the 11:00 hour, even as grains traded lower on the day. The report was neutral to bearish for beans, sending prices for the May contract briefly below the $9.00 level. May soyoil prices traded up to new highs on the numbers at 3437 reinforcing the trend higher. Oilshare gained as well with July values up to new highs at .3865% as meal prices traded down $1.80 by comparison. After the report soybeans stayed fairly resilient in terms of price action, with soyoil futures staying the uptrend course in style, rewarding the soyoil long. May meal fell to key support at 268.00 but did not dip underneath.
Corn and wheat prices were lower on the day awaiting the outcome of the report. The corn acres were well over the highest end of expectations. With futures leaning lower before the report, the reaction after the report was a crack in price action to new contract lows for corn. Wheat prices also collapsed, though the acreage was much more friendly for wheat moving forward. Within a small window of time, wheat futures were higher as traders covered in small short positions. Traders were also buying wheat / sell corn unwinding previous spreads, with values moving from 95c up to 1.17c. . Traders seemed to be shell-shocked by the large corn acreage number, but after the first 45 minutes selling interest seemed to pick up as we hit more new contract lows.
Fund recap
bot 3000 wheat
sold 25,000 corn
bot 2000 soyoil
Last changes
SMK 270.3 -1.6
SMN 273.1 -1.5
SMQ 274.4 -1.5
SMU 275.6 -1.4
SMV 276.6 -1.4
SMZ 278.8 -1.2
SMF7 279.6 -1.2
SK 910.75 +1.75
SN 917.75 +1.5
SQ 920.5 +2
SU 920.75 +1.75
SX 924.75 +1.75
SF7 928.5 +2
BOK 34.22 +0.43
BON 34.44 +0.43
BOQ 34.53 +0.43
CK 351.50 -15.5
CN 355.75 -15.75
WK 473.50 +9.5
WN 480.75 +9.25
At 11:00 the report was released:
Corn: 93.6 mil acres vs. average est at 89.9
Soybeans: 82.2 mil acres vs. average est at 83.05
All Wheat: 49.6 mil acres vs. average est at 51.702
Stocks Mar 1
Corn 7.808 vs. average est at 7.801
Soybeans: 1.531 vs. average est at 1.556
Wheat: 1.372 vs. average est at 1.356
Shocker: higher corn acres, much over the higher end of market expectations. The acreage was price negative for corn futures which quickly posted new contract lows. Wheat acreage was under expectations with beans more neutral. More of the volume was in the grain trade as corn prices worked lower.
SOY
Bean, meal, and soyoil prices opened on a steady note and stayed positive into the 11:00 hour, even as grains traded lower on the day. The report was neutral to bearish for beans, sending prices for the May contract briefly below the $9.00 level. May soyoil prices traded up to new highs on the numbers at 3437 reinforcing the trend higher. Oilshare gained as well with July values up to new highs at .3865% as meal prices traded down $1.80 by comparison. After the report soybeans stayed fairly resilient in terms of price action, with soyoil futures staying the uptrend course in style, rewarding the soyoil long. May meal fell to key support at 268.00 but did not dip underneath.
Corn and wheat prices were lower on the day awaiting the outcome of the report. The corn acres were well over the highest end of expectations. With futures leaning lower before the report, the reaction after the report was a crack in price action to new contract lows for corn. Wheat prices also collapsed, though the acreage was much more friendly for wheat moving forward. Within a small window of time, wheat futures were higher as traders covered in small short positions. Traders were also buying wheat / sell corn unwinding previous spreads, with values moving from 95c up to 1.17c. . Traders seemed to be shell-shocked by the large corn acreage number, but after the first 45 minutes selling interest seemed to pick up as we hit more new contract lows.
Fund recap
bot 3000 wheat
sold 25,000 corn
bot 2000 soyoil
CBOT Mar30 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 30
Last changes
SMK 271.9 -1.3
SMN 274.6 -1.2
SMQ 275.9 -1
SMU 277 -1
SMV 278 -0.8
SMZ 280 -0.8
SMF7 280.8 -0.6
SK 909 -7
SN 916.25 -6.5
SQ 918.5 -6.25
SU 919 -6
SX 923 -5.5
SF7 926.5 -5.25
BOK 33.79 -0.26
BON 34.01 -0.27
BOQ 34.10 -0.27
CK 367.00 -6
CN 371.50 -5.75
WK 464.00 -12.75
WN 471.50 -12.25
The markets opened as called with falling wheat prices the largest feature of the morning led by Kansas City. New rains across drier southern plains areas were said to be a catalyst for the break in wheat. US dollar weakness and a rally in the stock market helped to keep grains and soy values from breaking harder given the opening weakness in wheat prices.
Prices are mixed again this morning with most of the Ag commodities lower except for meal, (funds are still short here), which is higher versus soyoil futures as traders unwind that spread. Palm oil is also weaker which is leading to soyoil bull profit-taking to begin the morning. The trade this week remains all about evening up positions, which remain short for grains and slightly long for beans. Soyoil futures positions are now showing record length, which is providing weight to that market this morning. Bean direction seems more closely tied to what soyoil is doing lately so beans will open weaker but not before notching new highs for the move upward at $9.17. There was good reported US and Argentine farmer selling as beans set new highs for the upward trend.
The soy complex traded lower throughout even though meal prices started the day in higher trade. Prices could not stage a rally beyond key resistance in the May meal contract at 275.00 which sent prices quickly back to trading range lows around 272.00. Soyoil prices found more support on the corrective pullback from overall highs in the May contract at 3418, but for the day the price action is merely about standing still as meal setbacks to lower levels of trade. Soybeans were on the defensive having rallied to monthly highs at $9.17. November bean highs traded above the highs placed last December located at $9.26 with a trading range high at $9.29 1/2. Volume has slowed as prices have reached these highs with relative strength now into the lower part of overbought, still not high enough to warrant a larger corrective setback. That might be coming but doesn't feel like it's today.
CLOSING COMMENTS
Funds have shown the smallest inclination to hold onto short bean positions too long, while maintaining short wheat for a much longer period of time. Not too surprised then to see the wheat market head lower even while beans stay mostly afloat in the upper portion of trading ranges along with soyoil. Will review the March 31 Planting Intentions guesses expected in tomorrow's report first thing in the morning. But the market, having reached these highs from contract lows, is obviously considering all outcomes. Now we just have to see if we get numbers beyond the expected and if so, what the funds want to do with their largest position commitments which in this case belongs to wheat and corn (short) against soyoil (record long).
Brazil Party Abandons President 03/30 06:21
SAO PAULO (AP) -- Brazil's largest party abandoned President Dilma Rousseff's governing coalition Tuesday, making it tougher for her to survive mounting pressure in Congress for her impeachment.
The Brazilian Democratic Movement Party, known as the PMDB, said after a meeting that six Cabinet ministers belonging to the party as well as some 600 federal government employees who are members must step down. The announcement was made after more than 100 lawmakers approved the decision, according to the press office of Romero Juca, an influential senator.
The session ended with chants calling for the end of Rousseff's Worker's Party and for Vice President Michel Temer to become Brazil's president. Temer, who is the leader of the Democratic Movement, would assume the presidency if Rousseff was impeached for breaking fiscal laws.
The break increases the chance that Rousseff, whose popularity has plunged amid Brazil's worst recession in decades and corruption scandals, will be impeached in the coming months.
Brazilians have been staging wide protests demanding the president's impeachment and protesting the sprawling corruption scandal at state-run oil giant Petrobras that has been moving closer to Rousseff's inner circle. Rousseff, a former chairwoman of Petrobras' board, has not been implicated in the unfolding scandal at the oil company, which prosecutors say is the largest corruption scheme ever uncovered in Brazil.
The leak last week of spreadsheets listing payments to nearly 300 politicians representing dozens of parties further inflamed widespread disgust with Brazil's entire political class. The spreadsheets were seized in the Petrobras case from the home of a top executive at one of Brazil's biggest companies and list politicians and their code names alongside monetary figures. Authorities are still investigating whether the sums constituted illicit payouts or were legal campaign donations.
Last changes
SMK 271.9 -1.3
SMN 274.6 -1.2
SMQ 275.9 -1
SMU 277 -1
SMV 278 -0.8
SMZ 280 -0.8
SMF7 280.8 -0.6
SK 909 -7
SN 916.25 -6.5
SQ 918.5 -6.25
SU 919 -6
SX 923 -5.5
SF7 926.5 -5.25
BOK 33.79 -0.26
BON 34.01 -0.27
BOQ 34.10 -0.27
CK 367.00 -6
CN 371.50 -5.75
WK 464.00 -12.75
WN 471.50 -12.25
The markets opened as called with falling wheat prices the largest feature of the morning led by Kansas City. New rains across drier southern plains areas were said to be a catalyst for the break in wheat. US dollar weakness and a rally in the stock market helped to keep grains and soy values from breaking harder given the opening weakness in wheat prices.
Prices are mixed again this morning with most of the Ag commodities lower except for meal, (funds are still short here), which is higher versus soyoil futures as traders unwind that spread. Palm oil is also weaker which is leading to soyoil bull profit-taking to begin the morning. The trade this week remains all about evening up positions, which remain short for grains and slightly long for beans. Soyoil futures positions are now showing record length, which is providing weight to that market this morning. Bean direction seems more closely tied to what soyoil is doing lately so beans will open weaker but not before notching new highs for the move upward at $9.17. There was good reported US and Argentine farmer selling as beans set new highs for the upward trend.
The soy complex traded lower throughout even though meal prices started the day in higher trade. Prices could not stage a rally beyond key resistance in the May meal contract at 275.00 which sent prices quickly back to trading range lows around 272.00. Soyoil prices found more support on the corrective pullback from overall highs in the May contract at 3418, but for the day the price action is merely about standing still as meal setbacks to lower levels of trade. Soybeans were on the defensive having rallied to monthly highs at $9.17. November bean highs traded above the highs placed last December located at $9.26 with a trading range high at $9.29 1/2. Volume has slowed as prices have reached these highs with relative strength now into the lower part of overbought, still not high enough to warrant a larger corrective setback. That might be coming but doesn't feel like it's today.
CLOSING COMMENTS
Funds have shown the smallest inclination to hold onto short bean positions too long, while maintaining short wheat for a much longer period of time. Not too surprised then to see the wheat market head lower even while beans stay mostly afloat in the upper portion of trading ranges along with soyoil. Will review the March 31 Planting Intentions guesses expected in tomorrow's report first thing in the morning. But the market, having reached these highs from contract lows, is obviously considering all outcomes. Now we just have to see if we get numbers beyond the expected and if so, what the funds want to do with their largest position commitments which in this case belongs to wheat and corn (short) against soyoil (record long).
Brazil Party Abandons President 03/30 06:21
SAO PAULO (AP) -- Brazil's largest party abandoned President Dilma Rousseff's governing coalition Tuesday, making it tougher for her to survive mounting pressure in Congress for her impeachment.
The Brazilian Democratic Movement Party, known as the PMDB, said after a meeting that six Cabinet ministers belonging to the party as well as some 600 federal government employees who are members must step down. The announcement was made after more than 100 lawmakers approved the decision, according to the press office of Romero Juca, an influential senator.
The session ended with chants calling for the end of Rousseff's Worker's Party and for Vice President Michel Temer to become Brazil's president. Temer, who is the leader of the Democratic Movement, would assume the presidency if Rousseff was impeached for breaking fiscal laws.
The break increases the chance that Rousseff, whose popularity has plunged amid Brazil's worst recession in decades and corruption scandals, will be impeached in the coming months.
Brazilians have been staging wide protests demanding the president's impeachment and protesting the sprawling corruption scandal at state-run oil giant Petrobras that has been moving closer to Rousseff's inner circle. Rousseff, a former chairwoman of Petrobras' board, has not been implicated in the unfolding scandal at the oil company, which prosecutors say is the largest corruption scheme ever uncovered in Brazil.
The leak last week of spreadsheets listing payments to nearly 300 politicians representing dozens of parties further inflamed widespread disgust with Brazil's entire political class. The spreadsheets were seized in the Petrobras case from the home of a top executive at one of Brazil's biggest companies and list politicians and their code names alongside monetary figures. Authorities are still investigating whether the sums constituted illicit payouts or were legal campaign donations.
CBOT Mar29 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 29
Last changes
SMK 273.2 +1.1
SMN 275.8 +1.3
SMQ 276.9 +1.3
SMU 278 +1.2
SMV 278.8 +1.2
SMZ 280.8 +1.1
SMF7 281.4 +0.8
SK 916 +7
SN 922.75 +6.75
SQ 924.75 +6.5
SU 925 +6.75
SX 928.5 +6.5
SF7 931.75 +6
BOK 34.05 +0.42
BON 34.28 +0.42
BOQ 34.37 +0.43
CK 373.00 +2.5
CN 377.25 +2.5
WK 476.75 +5.75
WN 483.75 +5.75
Soybean trade is higher with trade near our highs. Bean oil is supporting beans, up 40 points this morning, with the market taking a run at the 9-month highs printed last week. Meal is fractionally mixed finding selling on spreading against bean oil. Crude is down over $1 this morning so outside market influence is not behind this move today in bean oil. The average trade guess for the 2016 Planting intentions is at 82.95 million acres versus 82.65 a year ago, the range of estimates is 81.6-84.2 million. The quarterly stocks are estimated to be at 1.569 billion bushels versus 1.327 a year ago, the range of expectations is 1.525-1.7. On the May soybean chart we moved above all major moving averages last week but have not accelerated up. Support is at the $9.04 200-day moving average which is the highest major moving average. Resistance is at the 3-month high printed yesterday a quarter cent below $9.15 then the 5-month high at $9.17 1/2 followed by the seven-month high at $9.29 1/4.
Meal prices actually started the day on a firm note following both beans and soyoil trade. Soyoil futures stayed on a steady path higher while May beans doubled highs for the move upward at 9.14 3/4. Canola futures have continued a higher path over the past few days, with more talk that China would not lower the amount of dockage it accepts on imports of canola. Light US farmer selling was noted in the bean market with better hedge pressure from the Argentina farmer.
Corn trade higher with a positive bias with the market sitting near the high of a 5 cent trading range. Corn has held a flat but higher trend the past three weeks with some new highs for the move yesterday and again today. Weather will have a bigger effect on what this market does in April and May to either grow our comfortable supplies, or lower them for the 2016-17 crop year. But for this week the market is focused on Thursday. The numbers would need to come out outside of the range of expectations on the low side to spark a rally, and if we acreage would come in at 91 million or higher, we could quickly challenge the contract lows on Thursday. The average trade guess is for the 2016 US corn acreage to be at 90.047 million acres, the range of estimates is 89-91.5 million. The March 1 Corn stocks are expected to be at 7.822 billion bushels versus 7.75 billion a
year ago. The range of estimates is 7.745-8.1 billion..
Wheat trade is higher across the three markets with support from beans and light follow-through buying following the strength yesterday. Support yesterday came from ongoing weather concerns after cold weather in the U.S. , and potential for a cold snap in Russia, although Russian temperatures have moderated. Plains weather is expected to remain fairly dry as well, with some potential uptick in the extended forecast. The Kansas weekly crop ratings were 57% good to excellent down 1 percentage point. The full reports should start next Monday, April 4. World supplies remain ample which will limit bigger rallies even with the U.S. acreage down. The average trade guess for the total
wheat planted acreate is at 51.659 million acres versus 54.644 a year ago.
Last changes
SMK 273.2 +1.1
SMN 275.8 +1.3
SMQ 276.9 +1.3
SMU 278 +1.2
SMV 278.8 +1.2
SMZ 280.8 +1.1
SMF7 281.4 +0.8
SK 916 +7
SN 922.75 +6.75
SQ 924.75 +6.5
SU 925 +6.75
SX 928.5 +6.5
SF7 931.75 +6
BOK 34.05 +0.42
BON 34.28 +0.42
BOQ 34.37 +0.43
CK 373.00 +2.5
CN 377.25 +2.5
WK 476.75 +5.75
WN 483.75 +5.75
Soybean trade is higher with trade near our highs. Bean oil is supporting beans, up 40 points this morning, with the market taking a run at the 9-month highs printed last week. Meal is fractionally mixed finding selling on spreading against bean oil. Crude is down over $1 this morning so outside market influence is not behind this move today in bean oil. The average trade guess for the 2016 Planting intentions is at 82.95 million acres versus 82.65 a year ago, the range of estimates is 81.6-84.2 million. The quarterly stocks are estimated to be at 1.569 billion bushels versus 1.327 a year ago, the range of expectations is 1.525-1.7. On the May soybean chart we moved above all major moving averages last week but have not accelerated up. Support is at the $9.04 200-day moving average which is the highest major moving average. Resistance is at the 3-month high printed yesterday a quarter cent below $9.15 then the 5-month high at $9.17 1/2 followed by the seven-month high at $9.29 1/4.
Meal prices actually started the day on a firm note following both beans and soyoil trade. Soyoil futures stayed on a steady path higher while May beans doubled highs for the move upward at 9.14 3/4. Canola futures have continued a higher path over the past few days, with more talk that China would not lower the amount of dockage it accepts on imports of canola. Light US farmer selling was noted in the bean market with better hedge pressure from the Argentina farmer.
Corn trade higher with a positive bias with the market sitting near the high of a 5 cent trading range. Corn has held a flat but higher trend the past three weeks with some new highs for the move yesterday and again today. Weather will have a bigger effect on what this market does in April and May to either grow our comfortable supplies, or lower them for the 2016-17 crop year. But for this week the market is focused on Thursday. The numbers would need to come out outside of the range of expectations on the low side to spark a rally, and if we acreage would come in at 91 million or higher, we could quickly challenge the contract lows on Thursday. The average trade guess is for the 2016 US corn acreage to be at 90.047 million acres, the range of estimates is 89-91.5 million. The March 1 Corn stocks are expected to be at 7.822 billion bushels versus 7.75 billion a
year ago. The range of estimates is 7.745-8.1 billion..
Wheat trade is higher across the three markets with support from beans and light follow-through buying following the strength yesterday. Support yesterday came from ongoing weather concerns after cold weather in the U.S. , and potential for a cold snap in Russia, although Russian temperatures have moderated. Plains weather is expected to remain fairly dry as well, with some potential uptick in the extended forecast. The Kansas weekly crop ratings were 57% good to excellent down 1 percentage point. The full reports should start next Monday, April 4. World supplies remain ample which will limit bigger rallies even with the U.S. acreage down. The average trade guess for the total
wheat planted acreate is at 51.659 million acres versus 54.644 a year ago.
CBOT Mar28 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 28
Last changes
SMK 272.1 -3.2
SMN 274.5 -3.3
SMQ 275.6 -3.3
SMU 276.8 -3.2
SMV 277.6 -3.3
SMZ 279.7 -3.1
SMF7 280.6 -3.1
SK 909 -1.5
SN 916 -1.75
SQ 918.25 -1.75
SU 918.25 -1.25
SX 922 -0.75
SF7 925.75 -0.75
BOK 33.63 +0.45
BON 33.86 +0.45
BOQ 33.94 +0.43
CK 370.50 +0.5
CN 374.75 +0.25
WK 471.00 +8
WN 478.00 +7.25
PALM OIL - up 45 ringgits on more production concerns
The stock market is called higher today with traders expecting more of a rally with crude oil in the green as well. Crude oil is finding some resistance at $41/barrel, with the US dollar weaker along with gold prices. But this week we begin earnings again, so this could be a difficult week for the Dow in terms of continuing US dollar strength.
We are getting closer each day to the March 31 Planting Intentions report and the end-of-month. These are big deals, but the only markets to actually change its trading range is soyoil and soybean futures. These two markets have established new highs in recent weeks, while corn and wheat prices merely sit in the middle of trading ranges. Meal prices also got a considerable boost but it was courtesy of the short getting out of those positions.
The highlights from last week included a record amount of meal sales which was unexpected and took the trade off guard. Friday the USDA flashed a 304,000 tons of soybeans sold to unknown. Soyoil sales were also good, and this morning we are back to lower meal (on cash weakness) with higher soyoil on crude strength. In fact, the strongest feature of the morning is soyoil strength once again with the May chart appearing ready to offer more upside possibilities. The palm oil market is also sharply higher as more production problems continue. The problem for soyoil is now the record long in the market. Funds actually added to their net short wheat position in recent weeks while slightly long beans.
In a few weeks we will begin our planting pace reporting for corn in the Delta. At this point rains continue to persist across the area frustrating farmers who are ready to go.
Crush values have inched higher on product strength with July crush at 63/64c/bu. Oilshare firmed back to 38% after seeing a pullback last week. July/Dec corn spreads firmed to 12 3/4. May / July meal spreads are trading into $2.40 to begin the day.
Last changes
SMK 272.1 -3.2
SMN 274.5 -3.3
SMQ 275.6 -3.3
SMU 276.8 -3.2
SMV 277.6 -3.3
SMZ 279.7 -3.1
SMF7 280.6 -3.1
SK 909 -1.5
SN 916 -1.75
SQ 918.25 -1.75
SU 918.25 -1.25
SX 922 -0.75
SF7 925.75 -0.75
BOK 33.63 +0.45
BON 33.86 +0.45
BOQ 33.94 +0.43
CK 370.50 +0.5
CN 374.75 +0.25
WK 471.00 +8
WN 478.00 +7.25
PALM OIL - up 45 ringgits on more production concerns
The stock market is called higher today with traders expecting more of a rally with crude oil in the green as well. Crude oil is finding some resistance at $41/barrel, with the US dollar weaker along with gold prices. But this week we begin earnings again, so this could be a difficult week for the Dow in terms of continuing US dollar strength.
We are getting closer each day to the March 31 Planting Intentions report and the end-of-month. These are big deals, but the only markets to actually change its trading range is soyoil and soybean futures. These two markets have established new highs in recent weeks, while corn and wheat prices merely sit in the middle of trading ranges. Meal prices also got a considerable boost but it was courtesy of the short getting out of those positions.
The highlights from last week included a record amount of meal sales which was unexpected and took the trade off guard. Friday the USDA flashed a 304,000 tons of soybeans sold to unknown. Soyoil sales were also good, and this morning we are back to lower meal (on cash weakness) with higher soyoil on crude strength. In fact, the strongest feature of the morning is soyoil strength once again with the May chart appearing ready to offer more upside possibilities. The palm oil market is also sharply higher as more production problems continue. The problem for soyoil is now the record long in the market. Funds actually added to their net short wheat position in recent weeks while slightly long beans.
In a few weeks we will begin our planting pace reporting for corn in the Delta. At this point rains continue to persist across the area frustrating farmers who are ready to go.
Crush values have inched higher on product strength with July crush at 63/64c/bu. Oilshare firmed back to 38% after seeing a pullback last week. July/Dec corn spreads firmed to 12 3/4. May / July meal spreads are trading into $2.40 to begin the day.
CBOT Mar24 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 24
Last changes
SMK 275.3 +4.4
SMN 277.8 +4.2
SMQ 278.9 +4.2
SMU 280 +4.2
SMV 280.9 +4.5
SMZ 282.8 +4.4
SMF7 283.7 +4.4
SK 910.5 +5.25
SN 917.75 +5.5
SQ 920 +5.75
SU 919.5 +5.5
SX 922.75 +5.5
SF7 926.5 +5.5
BOK 33.18 -0.18
BON 33.41 -0.18
BOQ 33.51 -0.17
CK 370.00 +1.5
CN 374.50 +1.25
WK 463.00 +0
WN 470.75 +0
Soybean trade is higher with buying returning during the day session as we continue to consolidate trade above $9.00. Meal is higher and oil is lower. South American harvest should continue to move along this week, running just ahead of normal pace with more variable yields in recent days. Shipping delays and political concerns will remain ongoing with improved weather potentially bolstering the shipping pace. The oil side of the complex continues to drive crush margins in the near term, although it has backed off in the last few days. Export sales were mixed with 410,800 metric tons of beans, 468,700 of meal, and 24,400 of oil. May beans have held above the 200-day moving average at $9.04. On the May soybean chart further support is the 10-day moving average at $8.98 with resistance at the high for the move at $9.12.
Corn trade higher with trade continuing to grind along in the recent range. Ethanol margins are seeing further pressure from the slide in the energy values taking away the small premium that unleaded gas built into ethanol with ethanol futures edging higher again today. The blizzard working through much of the corn belt will limit early fieldwork going into the weekend. The South American corn crop continues to make good progress with limited weather concerns. The weekly export sales are were ok at 803,200 metric tons of old crop, and 99,900 of new crop. The USDA also announced 260,000 metric tons of old crop sold to Taiwan. Trade will be closed Friday for Good Friday.
Wheat trade is lower across the three contracts with spillover selling pressure from the row crops along with the firmer dollar. Plains weather remains concerning in the near term with dry weather and further cold snaps possible into early April. World supplies remain ample which will limit potential rallies until more export business returns to the U.S., with the stronger dollar again eroding U.S. export competitiveness. Export sales
showed some improvement at 368.900 metric tons of old crop, and 118,800 of new.
Last changes
SMK 275.3 +4.4
SMN 277.8 +4.2
SMQ 278.9 +4.2
SMU 280 +4.2
SMV 280.9 +4.5
SMZ 282.8 +4.4
SMF7 283.7 +4.4
SK 910.5 +5.25
SN 917.75 +5.5
SQ 920 +5.75
SU 919.5 +5.5
SX 922.75 +5.5
SF7 926.5 +5.5
BOK 33.18 -0.18
BON 33.41 -0.18
BOQ 33.51 -0.17
CK 370.00 +1.5
CN 374.50 +1.25
WK 463.00 +0
WN 470.75 +0
Soybean trade is higher with buying returning during the day session as we continue to consolidate trade above $9.00. Meal is higher and oil is lower. South American harvest should continue to move along this week, running just ahead of normal pace with more variable yields in recent days. Shipping delays and political concerns will remain ongoing with improved weather potentially bolstering the shipping pace. The oil side of the complex continues to drive crush margins in the near term, although it has backed off in the last few days. Export sales were mixed with 410,800 metric tons of beans, 468,700 of meal, and 24,400 of oil. May beans have held above the 200-day moving average at $9.04. On the May soybean chart further support is the 10-day moving average at $8.98 with resistance at the high for the move at $9.12.
Corn trade higher with trade continuing to grind along in the recent range. Ethanol margins are seeing further pressure from the slide in the energy values taking away the small premium that unleaded gas built into ethanol with ethanol futures edging higher again today. The blizzard working through much of the corn belt will limit early fieldwork going into the weekend. The South American corn crop continues to make good progress with limited weather concerns. The weekly export sales are were ok at 803,200 metric tons of old crop, and 99,900 of new crop. The USDA also announced 260,000 metric tons of old crop sold to Taiwan. Trade will be closed Friday for Good Friday.
Wheat trade is lower across the three contracts with spillover selling pressure from the row crops along with the firmer dollar. Plains weather remains concerning in the near term with dry weather and further cold snaps possible into early April. World supplies remain ample which will limit potential rallies until more export business returns to the U.S., with the stronger dollar again eroding U.S. export competitiveness. Export sales
showed some improvement at 368.900 metric tons of old crop, and 118,800 of new.
CBOT Mar23 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 23
Last changes
SMK 270.9 -0.1
SMN 273.6 -0.1
SMQ 274.7 +0
SMU 275.8 +0
SMV 276.4 -0.1
SMZ 278.4 +0.1
SMF7 279.3 +0.1
SK 905.25 -5
SN 912.25 -4.75
SQ 914.25 -4.75
SU 914 -4.75
SX 917.25 -4.25
SF7 921 -4.25
BOK 33.36 -0.57
BON 33.59 -0.56
BOQ 33.68 -0.56
CK 368.50 -1.5
CN 373.25 -1.5
WK 463.00 -3.75
WN 470.75 -3.75
Soybean trade lower with trade fading from the highs seen yesterday with South American harvest pressure ongoing along with negative outside markets. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is lower. South American harvest should continue to move along this week, running just ahead of normal pace with more variable yields in recent days. Shipping delays and political concerns will remain ongoing with the real holding much of
the recent gains although it is fading today. The oil side of the complex continues to drive crush margins in the near term, although it has backed off overnight. May beans have edged above the 200-day moving average at $9.04 yesterday, and will need to hold above that area today to garner more support. On the May soybean chart further support is the 10-day moving average at $8.98.
Corn trade is lower with the negative overall commodity market environment and limited fresh news. The weekly ethanol report showed production off 4,000 barrels per day, and stocks were 1.5% lower. Corn planting progress in the Mississippi Delta will remain slow in the near term, although warmer and drier temperatures through midweek will help before moisture moves through much of the belt. The South American corn crop continues to make good progress. Basis is likely to stay sideways to lower into midweek
with increased farmer movement on the recent rally. Trade will be closed Friday for Good Friday and open normal on Sunday night.
Wheat trade lower across the three contracts with spillover selling pressure from the row crops along with the firmer dollar. Plains weather remains concerning in the near term with dry weather and further cold snaps possible. World supplies remain ample which will limit potential rallies until more export business returns to the U.S., with the rest the world remaining cheaper than U.S. origin with Russia setting export records. Chart rallies should remain a common place with the market historically low.
Last changes
SMK 270.9 -0.1
SMN 273.6 -0.1
SMQ 274.7 +0
SMU 275.8 +0
SMV 276.4 -0.1
SMZ 278.4 +0.1
SMF7 279.3 +0.1
SK 905.25 -5
SN 912.25 -4.75
SQ 914.25 -4.75
SU 914 -4.75
SX 917.25 -4.25
SF7 921 -4.25
BOK 33.36 -0.57
BON 33.59 -0.56
BOQ 33.68 -0.56
CK 368.50 -1.5
CN 373.25 -1.5
WK 463.00 -3.75
WN 470.75 -3.75
Soybean trade lower with trade fading from the highs seen yesterday with South American harvest pressure ongoing along with negative outside markets. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is lower. South American harvest should continue to move along this week, running just ahead of normal pace with more variable yields in recent days. Shipping delays and political concerns will remain ongoing with the real holding much of
the recent gains although it is fading today. The oil side of the complex continues to drive crush margins in the near term, although it has backed off overnight. May beans have edged above the 200-day moving average at $9.04 yesterday, and will need to hold above that area today to garner more support. On the May soybean chart further support is the 10-day moving average at $8.98.
Corn trade is lower with the negative overall commodity market environment and limited fresh news. The weekly ethanol report showed production off 4,000 barrels per day, and stocks were 1.5% lower. Corn planting progress in the Mississippi Delta will remain slow in the near term, although warmer and drier temperatures through midweek will help before moisture moves through much of the belt. The South American corn crop continues to make good progress. Basis is likely to stay sideways to lower into midweek
with increased farmer movement on the recent rally. Trade will be closed Friday for Good Friday and open normal on Sunday night.
Wheat trade lower across the three contracts with spillover selling pressure from the row crops along with the firmer dollar. Plains weather remains concerning in the near term with dry weather and further cold snaps possible. World supplies remain ample which will limit potential rallies until more export business returns to the U.S., with the rest the world remaining cheaper than U.S. origin with Russia setting export records. Chart rallies should remain a common place with the market historically low.
CBOT Mar22 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
The markets opened as called with more buying in the soyoil and bean markets. Grains were slower followers,
with corn and wheat markets steady.
SOY
The feature of the day was higher trade for beans and soyoil futures. Reasons were many from technical
considerations (beans over the 200 day moving average) up to funds flipping from short to long beans.
But the continuation of strong soyoil trade was perhaps the real catalyst for higher values. Palm oil
markets continue to head upward on supply fears, with crude oil trading up to new highs at $41.90/barrel.
The much higher path of soyoil put a floor under beans. May meal buy stops were triggered when prices
took out minor resistance at 271.00, sending prices higher to 273.40 approaching the upper end of the
trading range at 275.00. May beans found new buying interest with chart watchers looking at $9.08 as
key resistance. The new bean high was once again met with good selling interest from the country,
as farmers take advantage of higher prices to get something sold. July crush was trading from 61/62c/bu.
Oilshare was firmer with soyoil's advances trading to .3847%.
GRAINS
Corn and wheat prices started the day following bean strength, but the charts continue to suggest that they
are at fair value right where they are. As such, May corn found significant selling interest at the 100 day
moving average of $3.72. For the day it seemed like it was the job of corn and wheat to not travel too high
given their fundamentals - though export inspections yesterday were good for both. As noted below funds
were not involved in grains into the noontime hour.
Fund recap
even wheat
even corn
bot 6000 beans (adding length)
bot 3000 meal (covering shorts)
bot 3000 soyoil (adding to net length
**Upcoming events**
25 Mar - US markets /CBOT/ Singapore office will be closed on 'Friday' for Good Friday holiday.
31 Mar - USDA US'16 prospective plantings & Quarterly stocks reports
4 Apr - Weekly US crop progress report
with corn and wheat markets steady.
SOY
The feature of the day was higher trade for beans and soyoil futures. Reasons were many from technical
considerations (beans over the 200 day moving average) up to funds flipping from short to long beans.
But the continuation of strong soyoil trade was perhaps the real catalyst for higher values. Palm oil
markets continue to head upward on supply fears, with crude oil trading up to new highs at $41.90/barrel.
The much higher path of soyoil put a floor under beans. May meal buy stops were triggered when prices
took out minor resistance at 271.00, sending prices higher to 273.40 approaching the upper end of the
trading range at 275.00. May beans found new buying interest with chart watchers looking at $9.08 as
key resistance. The new bean high was once again met with good selling interest from the country,
as farmers take advantage of higher prices to get something sold. July crush was trading from 61/62c/bu.
Oilshare was firmer with soyoil's advances trading to .3847%.
GRAINS
Corn and wheat prices started the day following bean strength, but the charts continue to suggest that they
are at fair value right where they are. As such, May corn found significant selling interest at the 100 day
moving average of $3.72. For the day it seemed like it was the job of corn and wheat to not travel too high
given their fundamentals - though export inspections yesterday were good for both. As noted below funds
were not involved in grains into the noontime hour.
Fund recap
even wheat
even corn
bot 6000 beans (adding length)
bot 3000 meal (covering shorts)
bot 3000 soyoil (adding to net length
**Upcoming events**
25 Mar - US markets /CBOT/ Singapore office will be closed on 'Friday' for Good Friday holiday.
31 Mar - USDA US'16 prospective plantings & Quarterly stocks reports
4 Apr - Weekly US crop progress report
CBOT Mar21 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 21
Last changes
SMK 268.8 +2.2
SMN 271.4 +2.1
SMQ 272.4 +1.9
SMU 273.6 +2
SMV 274.2 +1.9
SMZ 276.1 +1.9
SMF7 277.2 +1.8
SK 902 +4.5
SN 908.25 +4
SQ 910.5 +4
SU 910.5 +4.25
SX 913.5 +3.75
SF7 917.5 +3.5
BOK 33.58 +0.16
BON 33.82 +0.17
BOQ 33.90 +0.17
CK 369.50 +2.5
CN 374.25 +2.5
WK 466.50 +3.5
WN 473.50 +3.25
It's officially springtime but you wouldn't know it judging by the weather in the Midwest. The upper east coast is getting a blanket of snow, and the spring breakers down south will be laying out on the beach with wind breakers on.
The political scene in Brazil remains a turbulent one, with Brazil's President's appointment of Lula to a government position met with scrutiny and calls for him to be ousted. On the Ag side, there will be a 24 hour strike by Brazil's stevedore's calling for higher wages. While it involves all terminals not sure which commodity will be impacted.
The Friday Cattle on Feed was price positive for grains with Feb placements at 8 year highs. That report was friendly for corn, but last week's commitment-of-trader's report did show that a lot of shorts did cover in their positions. Still, there is a short under beans, corn, and wheat which will probably continue to play into price action this week since 1. it's a shortened one (closed Friday ) and 2. we still do have the March 31 Planting Intentions report
The markets opened on a mixed note with the most gains coming from the wheat pit, which supported the other markets as well. Funds went about the business covering in more short positions.
At 10:00 export inspections were released as follows:
wheat: 467,658 tons vs. 407,042 wk ago (vs. an expected 300-450)
corn: 1,013,668 tons vs. 815,149 wk ago (vs. an expected 750-950)
soybeans: 575,087 tons vs. 715,847 wk ago (vs. an expected 450-700,000)
Grain export inspections were fairly good - beans low end.
The soy complex traded on a mixed note with the most gains coming from beans and meal into midday. Hedge pressure remained light with only small farmer selling from the US and a firmer Brazilian Real shutting off farmer selling from that region. Meal prices continued to rebound as traders unwound previous buy soyoil / sell meal trade. July oilshare still continues strong at .3833%. July crush values remained relatively firm from 58/60c/bu. as meal prices continued to recover. Traders continue to monitor the one day stevedore's strike in Brazil to see if will return any biz back to the US through logistical hiccups should it turn into more than a one day affair. May soyoil values continue to congest in the upper end of recent trading ranges, which is price positive for the recent up-trend.
The commitment-of-trader's report reflected more shortcovering last week, but it did not make much of a difference today. Corn followed wheat futures higher, where more active short-covering took place right after the open. Leading the way were Kansas City wheat futures, where prices were supported by the cold temperatures this weekend in Oklahoma and Kansas.
Fund recap
bot 1000 wheat
bot 3000 corn
bot 5000 beans
bot 2000 meal
bot 1000 soyoil
OUTSIDE MARKETS
The Dow opened down 19 pts. lower but was higher by the midday hour in quiet turnover. The US dollar is firm while crude oil continues to consolidate between $35-$41/barrel. Feels like soyoil futures are matching the same pace.
There are no surprises here, as the funds continue to watch chart points and consider whether to exit a short trade. Rallies continue to be very slow and careful - but if May wheat walks above its 100 day moving average at 4.85 will be sure to light a larger fire under the market. Maybe these markets just need a higher place from which to break after the release of the March 31 Planting intentions report
Last changes
SMK 268.8 +2.2
SMN 271.4 +2.1
SMQ 272.4 +1.9
SMU 273.6 +2
SMV 274.2 +1.9
SMZ 276.1 +1.9
SMF7 277.2 +1.8
SK 902 +4.5
SN 908.25 +4
SQ 910.5 +4
SU 910.5 +4.25
SX 913.5 +3.75
SF7 917.5 +3.5
BOK 33.58 +0.16
BON 33.82 +0.17
BOQ 33.90 +0.17
CK 369.50 +2.5
CN 374.25 +2.5
WK 466.50 +3.5
WN 473.50 +3.25
It's officially springtime but you wouldn't know it judging by the weather in the Midwest. The upper east coast is getting a blanket of snow, and the spring breakers down south will be laying out on the beach with wind breakers on.
The political scene in Brazil remains a turbulent one, with Brazil's President's appointment of Lula to a government position met with scrutiny and calls for him to be ousted. On the Ag side, there will be a 24 hour strike by Brazil's stevedore's calling for higher wages. While it involves all terminals not sure which commodity will be impacted.
The Friday Cattle on Feed was price positive for grains with Feb placements at 8 year highs. That report was friendly for corn, but last week's commitment-of-trader's report did show that a lot of shorts did cover in their positions. Still, there is a short under beans, corn, and wheat which will probably continue to play into price action this week since 1. it's a shortened one (closed Friday ) and 2. we still do have the March 31 Planting Intentions report
The markets opened on a mixed note with the most gains coming from the wheat pit, which supported the other markets as well. Funds went about the business covering in more short positions.
At 10:00 export inspections were released as follows:
wheat: 467,658 tons vs. 407,042 wk ago (vs. an expected 300-450)
corn: 1,013,668 tons vs. 815,149 wk ago (vs. an expected 750-950)
soybeans: 575,087 tons vs. 715,847 wk ago (vs. an expected 450-700,000)
Grain export inspections were fairly good - beans low end.
The soy complex traded on a mixed note with the most gains coming from beans and meal into midday. Hedge pressure remained light with only small farmer selling from the US and a firmer Brazilian Real shutting off farmer selling from that region. Meal prices continued to rebound as traders unwound previous buy soyoil / sell meal trade. July oilshare still continues strong at .3833%. July crush values remained relatively firm from 58/60c/bu. as meal prices continued to recover. Traders continue to monitor the one day stevedore's strike in Brazil to see if will return any biz back to the US through logistical hiccups should it turn into more than a one day affair. May soyoil values continue to congest in the upper end of recent trading ranges, which is price positive for the recent up-trend.
The commitment-of-trader's report reflected more shortcovering last week, but it did not make much of a difference today. Corn followed wheat futures higher, where more active short-covering took place right after the open. Leading the way were Kansas City wheat futures, where prices were supported by the cold temperatures this weekend in Oklahoma and Kansas.
Fund recap
bot 1000 wheat
bot 3000 corn
bot 5000 beans
bot 2000 meal
bot 1000 soyoil
OUTSIDE MARKETS
The Dow opened down 19 pts. lower but was higher by the midday hour in quiet turnover. The US dollar is firm while crude oil continues to consolidate between $35-$41/barrel. Feels like soyoil futures are matching the same pace.
There are no surprises here, as the funds continue to watch chart points and consider whether to exit a short trade. Rallies continue to be very slow and careful - but if May wheat walks above its 100 day moving average at 4.85 will be sure to light a larger fire under the market. Maybe these markets just need a higher place from which to break after the release of the March 31 Planting intentions report
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