CBOT Mar 18
Last changes
SMK 266.6 -0.4
SMN 269.3 -0.4
SMQ 270.5 -0.5
SMU 271.6 -0.5
SMV 272.3 -0.4
SMZ 274.2 -0.3
SMF7 275.4 -0.1
SK 897.5 -0.25
SN 904.25 +0.25
SQ 906.5 +0.25
SU 906.25 +0
SX 909.75 +0.5
SF7 914 +0.5
BOK 33.42 +0.01
BON 33.65 +0.01
BOQ 33.73 +0.01
CK 367.00 -1.5
CN 371.75 -1.25
WK 463.00 +0.5
WN 470.25 +0.25
The markets opened mostly as called with little going on except light position-evening. May beans
and soyoil continued to hold while grains traded lower on the day led by corn and KC wheat.
Informa numbers were released today with bean acreage at a higher 84 million acres in 2016 (higher
than the Outlook Forum) with corn at 89.5 million and wheat cut by 3 million acres to 51.2 million.
ON this low-volume day the market had little reaction to the numbers.
SOY
The soy complex traded on a mixed note but the firm tone in beans and soyoil did not lose its
feeling all day. LIght profit-taking was noted for the soyoil market as bulls took advantage of the
trend - higher rally all week long. Plus, crude oil futures also broke into the red for the day as
short-covering in that market took a break. July oilshare remained firm at .3850% with crude values
trading from 58/59c/bu. Buy soy / sell corn trade was also a feature. May/July meal spreads remain
weaker trading to a 2.90 carry. IN larger trades of note: Futures Int'l purchased 500 July 8.20 bean puts.
GRAINS
Wheat values were on the defensive today with most of the losses coming from the Kansas city
market. Traders are unwinding previous buy KC/sell CBOT wheat spreads. May wheat traded
just to next support at $4.57 which appeared for the day to hold. May corn broke lower from its
key resistance level at 3.72 with good selling against it as prices worked lower.
Friday, March 18, 2016
CBOT Mar17 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 17
Last changes
SMK 267 -0.7
SMN 269.7 -0.7
SMQ 271 -0.5
SMU 272.1 -0.5
SMV 272.7 -0.4
SMZ 274.5 -0.2
SMF7 275.5 -0.3
SK 897.75 +3.25
SN 904 +3.75
SQ 906.25 +4
SU 906.25 +4
SX 909.25 +4.25
SF7 913.5 +4.25
BOK 33.41 +0.72
BON 33.64 +0.72
BOQ 33.72 +0.72
CK 368.50 +0.25
CN 373.00 -0.25
WK 462.50 -8.25
WN 470.00 -8.25
The markets opened as called today with more new highs in the soyoil chart. But later in the day lower grains pulled higher soy complex trade off the new highs.
The soy complex traded into new highs and key resistance for many areas of the market. May soyoil futures etched a new high for the move up at 3355, which created a floor under beans. May beans traded to trendline resistance at 9.04 1/2 before finding some resistance to higher prices. Meal traded both sides first, consolidating sideways between 265.00-270.00 for the May contract. The saga in the Brazil political scene continues with protests flying as Lula becomes Chief of Staff. The Brazilian Real continues to stay firm, shutting off farmer selling from that area. But US farmers were good sellers on this bean rally, taking advantages of higher prices to get something marketed.
The buy soyoil/sell meal trade continues to be the key trend and the main story. Weaker cash meal and lower exports continue - as Argentine meal displaces US. Meal spreads were continuing weaker with May/July trading to $2.80 carry and May/July beans trading at a 6 1/2 carry. A continuing strong performance on the technical side from soyoil charts, and higher palm on production worries vs. weaker export meal outlooks underpinned oilshare which moved to new highs with July over 38% and May at .3850%.
Wheat futures started the day higher but once again started to set up a new failure point in the May contract at $4.75. Better chances of rain in the plains and poor export sales set-up the downturn which impacted corn after it traded to new highs for the move upward. Kansas City futures led the way down for wheat, off 15c by noontime. Sell-stops were triggered in CBOT values when prices broke $4.65.
fund recap
sold 3000 wheat
bot 4000 beans
bot 4000 soyoil
The Dow opened lower but traded both sides quickly, advancing to over 100 pts by midday. The US dollar is significantly weaker with more comments about the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future.
Last changes
SMK 267 -0.7
SMN 269.7 -0.7
SMQ 271 -0.5
SMU 272.1 -0.5
SMV 272.7 -0.4
SMZ 274.5 -0.2
SMF7 275.5 -0.3
SK 897.75 +3.25
SN 904 +3.75
SQ 906.25 +4
SU 906.25 +4
SX 909.25 +4.25
SF7 913.5 +4.25
BOK 33.41 +0.72
BON 33.64 +0.72
BOQ 33.72 +0.72
CK 368.50 +0.25
CN 373.00 -0.25
WK 462.50 -8.25
WN 470.00 -8.25
The markets opened as called today with more new highs in the soyoil chart. But later in the day lower grains pulled higher soy complex trade off the new highs.
The soy complex traded into new highs and key resistance for many areas of the market. May soyoil futures etched a new high for the move up at 3355, which created a floor under beans. May beans traded to trendline resistance at 9.04 1/2 before finding some resistance to higher prices. Meal traded both sides first, consolidating sideways between 265.00-270.00 for the May contract. The saga in the Brazil political scene continues with protests flying as Lula becomes Chief of Staff. The Brazilian Real continues to stay firm, shutting off farmer selling from that area. But US farmers were good sellers on this bean rally, taking advantages of higher prices to get something marketed.
The buy soyoil/sell meal trade continues to be the key trend and the main story. Weaker cash meal and lower exports continue - as Argentine meal displaces US. Meal spreads were continuing weaker with May/July trading to $2.80 carry and May/July beans trading at a 6 1/2 carry. A continuing strong performance on the technical side from soyoil charts, and higher palm on production worries vs. weaker export meal outlooks underpinned oilshare which moved to new highs with July over 38% and May at .3850%.
Wheat futures started the day higher but once again started to set up a new failure point in the May contract at $4.75. Better chances of rain in the plains and poor export sales set-up the downturn which impacted corn after it traded to new highs for the move upward. Kansas City futures led the way down for wheat, off 15c by noontime. Sell-stops were triggered in CBOT values when prices broke $4.65.
fund recap
sold 3000 wheat
bot 4000 beans
bot 4000 soyoil
The Dow opened lower but traded both sides quickly, advancing to over 100 pts by midday. The US dollar is significantly weaker with more comments about the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future.
CBOT Mar16 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 16
Last changes
SMK 267.7 -0.5
SMN 270.4 -0.6
SMQ 271.5 -0.7
SMU 272.6 -0.6
SMV 273.1 -0.5
SMZ 274.7 -0.5
SMF7 275.8 -0.4
SK 894.5 +2.5
SN 900.25 +2.5
SQ 902.25 +2.25
SU 902.25 +2.5
SX 905 +2.25
SF7 909.25 +2.25
BOK 32.69 +0.2
BON 32.92 +0.2
BOQ 33.00 +0.21
CK 368.25 -0.25
CN 373.25 -0.25
WK 470.75 -6.5
WN 478.25 -6.25
Corn trade lower in quiet trade with prices holding above the 50-day moving average. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative but a stronger energy complex this morning could be a sign of improving margins. The weekly ethanol production report showed 2.15% increase in production, stocks were 1.95% lower, with gasoline demand 0.05% higher. This has led to slightly higher ethanol futures trade at midday. Heavy rains in the Mississippi Delta are slowing planting progress with more rain showing in the extended forecasts. The large short position could help fuel a bigger move on strength.
Wheat trade is lower across the three contracts. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term, along with colder temperatures this weekend potentially dinging the crop a bit. Egypt devalued its currency, which will make further wheat imports more expensive. If the FED raises U.S. interest rates today, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of U.S. exports, which could be the main driver of trade late in the day.
Last changes
SMK 267.7 -0.5
SMN 270.4 -0.6
SMQ 271.5 -0.7
SMU 272.6 -0.6
SMV 273.1 -0.5
SMZ 274.7 -0.5
SMF7 275.8 -0.4
SK 894.5 +2.5
SN 900.25 +2.5
SQ 902.25 +2.25
SU 902.25 +2.5
SX 905 +2.25
SF7 909.25 +2.25
BOK 32.69 +0.2
BON 32.92 +0.2
BOQ 33.00 +0.21
CK 368.25 -0.25
CN 373.25 -0.25
WK 470.75 -6.5
WN 478.25 -6.25
Corn trade lower in quiet trade with prices holding above the 50-day moving average. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative but a stronger energy complex this morning could be a sign of improving margins. The weekly ethanol production report showed 2.15% increase in production, stocks were 1.95% lower, with gasoline demand 0.05% higher. This has led to slightly higher ethanol futures trade at midday. Heavy rains in the Mississippi Delta are slowing planting progress with more rain showing in the extended forecasts. The large short position could help fuel a bigger move on strength.
Wheat trade is lower across the three contracts. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term, along with colder temperatures this weekend potentially dinging the crop a bit. Egypt devalued its currency, which will make further wheat imports more expensive. If the FED raises U.S. interest rates today, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of U.S. exports, which could be the main driver of trade late in the day.
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
CBOT Mar15 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 15
Last changes
SMK 268.2 -3.3
SMN 271 -3.2
SMQ 272.2 -3.1
SMU 273.2 -3
SMV 273.6 -2.9
SMZ 275.2 -2.8
SMF7 276.2 -2.9
SK 892 -3.75
SN 897.75 -4.25
SQ 900 -4
SU 899.75 -4.25
SX 902.75 -4.25
SF7 907 -4.25
BOK 32.49 +0.04
BON 32.72 +0.04
BOQ 32.79 +0.04
CK 368.50 -0.25
CN 373.50 +0
WK 477.25 -1.5
WN 484.50 -1.25
Soybean trade lower with trading finding selling with harvest continuing to move along in South America along with the more negative tone for commodities today. Meal is lower and oil points higher. South American harvest should continue to progress on a
normal pace with harvest pressure likely to limit near term upside. Long lines at the ports and backups on the highway will likely persist for a while. The COT report showed some of the strength last week was fund short covering. The oil side of the crush complex has been the strongest lately, and will need to stay that way to support crush. On the May soybean chart support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh 2-month high printed Monday at $8.97 then the 200-day at $9.05.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed; overnight trade was down a few cents. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative with some additional pressure from the weak energy trade to start the week, with ethanol futures fractionally lower this morning as they stay range bound. Heavy rains in the Mississippi Delta are slowing planting progress. This is noted supporting futures this morning. The large short position could allow bigger moves upward if additional short covering can be engaged, and another positive finish today would be a step in that direction.
Wheat trade is flat to lower across the three contracts with trade seeing pressure from the weaker row crop trade and stronger dollar. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term which should add support, with excessive moisture in the delta growing areas, while spring wheat has found some better demand lately. Egypt devalued their currency which will make further wheat imports more expensive. India looks to have some stormy weather in the near term which might cause some damage to the growing crop. If the Fed
raises U.S. interest rates this week, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of US exports..
Last changes
SMK 268.2 -3.3
SMN 271 -3.2
SMQ 272.2 -3.1
SMU 273.2 -3
SMV 273.6 -2.9
SMZ 275.2 -2.8
SMF7 276.2 -2.9
SK 892 -3.75
SN 897.75 -4.25
SQ 900 -4
SU 899.75 -4.25
SX 902.75 -4.25
SF7 907 -4.25
BOK 32.49 +0.04
BON 32.72 +0.04
BOQ 32.79 +0.04
CK 368.50 -0.25
CN 373.50 +0
WK 477.25 -1.5
WN 484.50 -1.25
Soybean trade lower with trading finding selling with harvest continuing to move along in South America along with the more negative tone for commodities today. Meal is lower and oil points higher. South American harvest should continue to progress on a
normal pace with harvest pressure likely to limit near term upside. Long lines at the ports and backups on the highway will likely persist for a while. The COT report showed some of the strength last week was fund short covering. The oil side of the crush complex has been the strongest lately, and will need to stay that way to support crush. On the May soybean chart support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh 2-month high printed Monday at $8.97 then the 200-day at $9.05.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed; overnight trade was down a few cents. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative with some additional pressure from the weak energy trade to start the week, with ethanol futures fractionally lower this morning as they stay range bound. Heavy rains in the Mississippi Delta are slowing planting progress. This is noted supporting futures this morning. The large short position could allow bigger moves upward if additional short covering can be engaged, and another positive finish today would be a step in that direction.
Wheat trade is flat to lower across the three contracts with trade seeing pressure from the weaker row crop trade and stronger dollar. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term which should add support, with excessive moisture in the delta growing areas, while spring wheat has found some better demand lately. Egypt devalued their currency which will make further wheat imports more expensive. India looks to have some stormy weather in the near term which might cause some damage to the growing crop. If the Fed
raises U.S. interest rates this week, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of US exports..
Monday, March 14, 2016
CBOT Mar14 Closing comment #soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 14
Last changes
SMH 268.1 -3.9
SMK 271.5 -2
SMN 274.2 -2
SMQ 275.3 -1.9
SMU 276.2 -1.9
SMV 276.5 -2.1
SMZ 278 -2.3
SH 888 +0
SK 895.75 +0
SN 902 +0.5
SQ 904 +0.5
SU 904 +0.5
SX 907 +0.25
BOH 32.25 +0.32
BOK 32.45 +0.32
BON 32.68 +0.31
CH 366.75 +0.75
CK 368.75 +3.75
WH 471.50 +1.75
WK 478.75 +3
Soybean trade is narrowly mixed with trade moving sideways with support from corn and wheat working against South American harvest pressure. Meal is lower and oil is higher. South American harvest should continue to progress on a normal pace with harvest pressure likely to limit upside next week. There were some protests over the weekend, but they were likely insufficient to get the market too excited for a near term
reaction, but unrest in Brazil could eventually become a bigger story. The COT report showed some of the strength last week was fund short covering. The weekly export inspections were a bit softer at 715,816 metric tons. On the May soybean chart support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh two-month high printed today at $8.97 then the 200-day at $9.05
Corn trade higher with trade finding some light buying after the CFTC revealed additional non-commercial shorts added to the market last week. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative with some additional pressure from the weak energy trade to start the week, although ethanol futures have edged marginally higher this morning. The COT report following the session showed funds adding on shorts which gives us a little more short covering power if we can find the reason to move above the next resistance levels early this week. The weekly export inspections were ok at 804,499 metric tons.
Wheat trade higher across the three contracts with light buying on weather concerns to start the week. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term, which should add support, with excessive moisture in the delta growing areas. The ruble has firmed which could hurt Russian export ability, but their winter wheat looks to be in very good shape coming out of winter. India looks to have some stormy weather in the near term which might cause some damage to the growing crop. If the FED raises U.S. interest rates this week, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of U.S. exports.
Last changes
SMH 268.1 -3.9
SMK 271.5 -2
SMN 274.2 -2
SMQ 275.3 -1.9
SMU 276.2 -1.9
SMV 276.5 -2.1
SMZ 278 -2.3
SH 888 +0
SK 895.75 +0
SN 902 +0.5
SQ 904 +0.5
SU 904 +0.5
SX 907 +0.25
BOH 32.25 +0.32
BOK 32.45 +0.32
BON 32.68 +0.31
CH 366.75 +0.75
CK 368.75 +3.75
WH 471.50 +1.75
WK 478.75 +3
Soybean trade is narrowly mixed with trade moving sideways with support from corn and wheat working against South American harvest pressure. Meal is lower and oil is higher. South American harvest should continue to progress on a normal pace with harvest pressure likely to limit upside next week. There were some protests over the weekend, but they were likely insufficient to get the market too excited for a near term
reaction, but unrest in Brazil could eventually become a bigger story. The COT report showed some of the strength last week was fund short covering. The weekly export inspections were a bit softer at 715,816 metric tons. On the May soybean chart support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh two-month high printed today at $8.97 then the 200-day at $9.05
Corn trade higher with trade finding some light buying after the CFTC revealed additional non-commercial shorts added to the market last week. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative with some additional pressure from the weak energy trade to start the week, although ethanol futures have edged marginally higher this morning. The COT report following the session showed funds adding on shorts which gives us a little more short covering power if we can find the reason to move above the next resistance levels early this week. The weekly export inspections were ok at 804,499 metric tons.
Wheat trade higher across the three contracts with light buying on weather concerns to start the week. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term, which should add support, with excessive moisture in the delta growing areas. The ruble has firmed which could hurt Russian export ability, but their winter wheat looks to be in very good shape coming out of winter. India looks to have some stormy weather in the near term which might cause some damage to the growing crop. If the FED raises U.S. interest rates this week, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of U.S. exports.
Saturday, March 12, 2016
CBOT MAr 11 Closing comment #soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 11
Last changes
SMH 272 +1.8
SMK 273.5 +1.6
SMN 276.2 +1.6
SMQ 277.2 +1.5
SMU 278.1 +1.3
SMV 278.6 +1.1
SMZ 280.3 +0.9
SH 888 +6.25
SK 895.75 +6.5
SN 901.5 +6.75
SQ 903.5 +6.75
SU 903.5 +6.25
SX 906.75 +6
BOH 31.93 +0.52
BOK 32.13 +0.51
BON 32.37 +0.51
CH 366.00 +3.5
CK 365.00 +2.25
WH 469.75 -1.75
WK 475.75 -1.25
The Dow is higher today with traders around the world finally deciding that the ECB stimulus yesterday was a good thing. Crude oil is trading at a high of $39.96/barrel on its way to confirming a bottom has probably arrived. Because it is Friday look to possibly trade both sides today.
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is higher. Energies are higher with crude up. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle and feeders sharply higher and hogs mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold down.
Corn trade is higher due to outside market support and noted commercial support. The warm weather should allow early fieldwork to continue to make rapid progress and allow for early planting, although the cooler weather should appear towards the end of next week. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative but the blender economics have improved substantially to start the month. USDA announced 170,800 metric tons of corn sold to Japan.
Soybean trade is higher. Meal is fractionally lower and bean oil is up due to spillover support from the outside markets. Overall there is limited fresh news today illustrated by the mixed daily changes in the soy complex. South American harvest should continue to progress in the near-term potentially triggering some selling later in the session. The Brazilian currency continues to rally improving US competitiveness. Crush margins continue to improve with the strength of the oil side of the complex, with palm oil streaking higher as well. On the May soybean chart, support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh two-month high printed this morning at $8.95, then the 200-day at $9.05.
Last changes
SMH 272 +1.8
SMK 273.5 +1.6
SMN 276.2 +1.6
SMQ 277.2 +1.5
SMU 278.1 +1.3
SMV 278.6 +1.1
SMZ 280.3 +0.9
SH 888 +6.25
SK 895.75 +6.5
SN 901.5 +6.75
SQ 903.5 +6.75
SU 903.5 +6.25
SX 906.75 +6
BOH 31.93 +0.52
BOK 32.13 +0.51
BON 32.37 +0.51
CH 366.00 +3.5
CK 365.00 +2.25
WH 469.75 -1.75
WK 475.75 -1.25
The Dow is higher today with traders around the world finally deciding that the ECB stimulus yesterday was a good thing. Crude oil is trading at a high of $39.96/barrel on its way to confirming a bottom has probably arrived. Because it is Friday look to possibly trade both sides today.
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is higher. Energies are higher with crude up. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle and feeders sharply higher and hogs mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold down.
Corn trade is higher due to outside market support and noted commercial support. The warm weather should allow early fieldwork to continue to make rapid progress and allow for early planting, although the cooler weather should appear towards the end of next week. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative but the blender economics have improved substantially to start the month. USDA announced 170,800 metric tons of corn sold to Japan.
Soybean trade is higher. Meal is fractionally lower and bean oil is up due to spillover support from the outside markets. Overall there is limited fresh news today illustrated by the mixed daily changes in the soy complex. South American harvest should continue to progress in the near-term potentially triggering some selling later in the session. The Brazilian currency continues to rally improving US competitiveness. Crush margins continue to improve with the strength of the oil side of the complex, with palm oil streaking higher as well. On the May soybean chart, support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh two-month high printed this morning at $8.95, then the 200-day at $9.05.
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