CBOT Mar 18
Last changes
SMK 266.6 -0.4
SMN 269.3 -0.4
SMQ 270.5 -0.5
SMU 271.6 -0.5
SMV 272.3 -0.4
SMZ 274.2 -0.3
SMF7 275.4 -0.1
SK 897.5 -0.25
SN 904.25 +0.25
SQ 906.5 +0.25
SU 906.25 +0
SX 909.75 +0.5
SF7 914 +0.5
BOK 33.42 +0.01
BON 33.65 +0.01
BOQ 33.73 +0.01
CK 367.00 -1.5
CN 371.75 -1.25
WK 463.00 +0.5
WN 470.25 +0.25
The markets opened mostly as called with little going on except light position-evening. May beans
and soyoil continued to hold while grains traded lower on the day led by corn and KC wheat.
Informa numbers were released today with bean acreage at a higher 84 million acres in 2016 (higher
than the Outlook Forum) with corn at 89.5 million and wheat cut by 3 million acres to 51.2 million.
ON this low-volume day the market had little reaction to the numbers.
SOY
The soy complex traded on a mixed note but the firm tone in beans and soyoil did not lose its
feeling all day. LIght profit-taking was noted for the soyoil market as bulls took advantage of the
trend - higher rally all week long. Plus, crude oil futures also broke into the red for the day as
short-covering in that market took a break. July oilshare remained firm at .3850% with crude values
trading from 58/59c/bu. Buy soy / sell corn trade was also a feature. May/July meal spreads remain
weaker trading to a 2.90 carry. IN larger trades of note: Futures Int'l purchased 500 July 8.20 bean puts.
GRAINS
Wheat values were on the defensive today with most of the losses coming from the Kansas city
market. Traders are unwinding previous buy KC/sell CBOT wheat spreads. May wheat traded
just to next support at $4.57 which appeared for the day to hold. May corn broke lower from its
key resistance level at 3.72 with good selling against it as prices worked lower.
Friday, March 18, 2016
CBOT Mar17 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 17
Last changes
SMK 267 -0.7
SMN 269.7 -0.7
SMQ 271 -0.5
SMU 272.1 -0.5
SMV 272.7 -0.4
SMZ 274.5 -0.2
SMF7 275.5 -0.3
SK 897.75 +3.25
SN 904 +3.75
SQ 906.25 +4
SU 906.25 +4
SX 909.25 +4.25
SF7 913.5 +4.25
BOK 33.41 +0.72
BON 33.64 +0.72
BOQ 33.72 +0.72
CK 368.50 +0.25
CN 373.00 -0.25
WK 462.50 -8.25
WN 470.00 -8.25
The markets opened as called today with more new highs in the soyoil chart. But later in the day lower grains pulled higher soy complex trade off the new highs.
The soy complex traded into new highs and key resistance for many areas of the market. May soyoil futures etched a new high for the move up at 3355, which created a floor under beans. May beans traded to trendline resistance at 9.04 1/2 before finding some resistance to higher prices. Meal traded both sides first, consolidating sideways between 265.00-270.00 for the May contract. The saga in the Brazil political scene continues with protests flying as Lula becomes Chief of Staff. The Brazilian Real continues to stay firm, shutting off farmer selling from that area. But US farmers were good sellers on this bean rally, taking advantages of higher prices to get something marketed.
The buy soyoil/sell meal trade continues to be the key trend and the main story. Weaker cash meal and lower exports continue - as Argentine meal displaces US. Meal spreads were continuing weaker with May/July trading to $2.80 carry and May/July beans trading at a 6 1/2 carry. A continuing strong performance on the technical side from soyoil charts, and higher palm on production worries vs. weaker export meal outlooks underpinned oilshare which moved to new highs with July over 38% and May at .3850%.
Wheat futures started the day higher but once again started to set up a new failure point in the May contract at $4.75. Better chances of rain in the plains and poor export sales set-up the downturn which impacted corn after it traded to new highs for the move upward. Kansas City futures led the way down for wheat, off 15c by noontime. Sell-stops were triggered in CBOT values when prices broke $4.65.
fund recap
sold 3000 wheat
bot 4000 beans
bot 4000 soyoil
The Dow opened lower but traded both sides quickly, advancing to over 100 pts by midday. The US dollar is significantly weaker with more comments about the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future.
Last changes
SMK 267 -0.7
SMN 269.7 -0.7
SMQ 271 -0.5
SMU 272.1 -0.5
SMV 272.7 -0.4
SMZ 274.5 -0.2
SMF7 275.5 -0.3
SK 897.75 +3.25
SN 904 +3.75
SQ 906.25 +4
SU 906.25 +4
SX 909.25 +4.25
SF7 913.5 +4.25
BOK 33.41 +0.72
BON 33.64 +0.72
BOQ 33.72 +0.72
CK 368.50 +0.25
CN 373.00 -0.25
WK 462.50 -8.25
WN 470.00 -8.25
The markets opened as called today with more new highs in the soyoil chart. But later in the day lower grains pulled higher soy complex trade off the new highs.
The soy complex traded into new highs and key resistance for many areas of the market. May soyoil futures etched a new high for the move up at 3355, which created a floor under beans. May beans traded to trendline resistance at 9.04 1/2 before finding some resistance to higher prices. Meal traded both sides first, consolidating sideways between 265.00-270.00 for the May contract. The saga in the Brazil political scene continues with protests flying as Lula becomes Chief of Staff. The Brazilian Real continues to stay firm, shutting off farmer selling from that area. But US farmers were good sellers on this bean rally, taking advantages of higher prices to get something marketed.
The buy soyoil/sell meal trade continues to be the key trend and the main story. Weaker cash meal and lower exports continue - as Argentine meal displaces US. Meal spreads were continuing weaker with May/July trading to $2.80 carry and May/July beans trading at a 6 1/2 carry. A continuing strong performance on the technical side from soyoil charts, and higher palm on production worries vs. weaker export meal outlooks underpinned oilshare which moved to new highs with July over 38% and May at .3850%.
Wheat futures started the day higher but once again started to set up a new failure point in the May contract at $4.75. Better chances of rain in the plains and poor export sales set-up the downturn which impacted corn after it traded to new highs for the move upward. Kansas City futures led the way down for wheat, off 15c by noontime. Sell-stops were triggered in CBOT values when prices broke $4.65.
fund recap
sold 3000 wheat
bot 4000 beans
bot 4000 soyoil
The Dow opened lower but traded both sides quickly, advancing to over 100 pts by midday. The US dollar is significantly weaker with more comments about the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future.
CBOT Mar16 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 16
Last changes
SMK 267.7 -0.5
SMN 270.4 -0.6
SMQ 271.5 -0.7
SMU 272.6 -0.6
SMV 273.1 -0.5
SMZ 274.7 -0.5
SMF7 275.8 -0.4
SK 894.5 +2.5
SN 900.25 +2.5
SQ 902.25 +2.25
SU 902.25 +2.5
SX 905 +2.25
SF7 909.25 +2.25
BOK 32.69 +0.2
BON 32.92 +0.2
BOQ 33.00 +0.21
CK 368.25 -0.25
CN 373.25 -0.25
WK 470.75 -6.5
WN 478.25 -6.25
Corn trade lower in quiet trade with prices holding above the 50-day moving average. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative but a stronger energy complex this morning could be a sign of improving margins. The weekly ethanol production report showed 2.15% increase in production, stocks were 1.95% lower, with gasoline demand 0.05% higher. This has led to slightly higher ethanol futures trade at midday. Heavy rains in the Mississippi Delta are slowing planting progress with more rain showing in the extended forecasts. The large short position could help fuel a bigger move on strength.
Wheat trade is lower across the three contracts. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term, along with colder temperatures this weekend potentially dinging the crop a bit. Egypt devalued its currency, which will make further wheat imports more expensive. If the FED raises U.S. interest rates today, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of U.S. exports, which could be the main driver of trade late in the day.
Last changes
SMK 267.7 -0.5
SMN 270.4 -0.6
SMQ 271.5 -0.7
SMU 272.6 -0.6
SMV 273.1 -0.5
SMZ 274.7 -0.5
SMF7 275.8 -0.4
SK 894.5 +2.5
SN 900.25 +2.5
SQ 902.25 +2.25
SU 902.25 +2.5
SX 905 +2.25
SF7 909.25 +2.25
BOK 32.69 +0.2
BON 32.92 +0.2
BOQ 33.00 +0.21
CK 368.25 -0.25
CN 373.25 -0.25
WK 470.75 -6.5
WN 478.25 -6.25
Corn trade lower in quiet trade with prices holding above the 50-day moving average. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative but a stronger energy complex this morning could be a sign of improving margins. The weekly ethanol production report showed 2.15% increase in production, stocks were 1.95% lower, with gasoline demand 0.05% higher. This has led to slightly higher ethanol futures trade at midday. Heavy rains in the Mississippi Delta are slowing planting progress with more rain showing in the extended forecasts. The large short position could help fuel a bigger move on strength.
Wheat trade is lower across the three contracts. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term, along with colder temperatures this weekend potentially dinging the crop a bit. Egypt devalued its currency, which will make further wheat imports more expensive. If the FED raises U.S. interest rates today, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of U.S. exports, which could be the main driver of trade late in the day.
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
CBOT Mar15 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 15
Last changes
SMK 268.2 -3.3
SMN 271 -3.2
SMQ 272.2 -3.1
SMU 273.2 -3
SMV 273.6 -2.9
SMZ 275.2 -2.8
SMF7 276.2 -2.9
SK 892 -3.75
SN 897.75 -4.25
SQ 900 -4
SU 899.75 -4.25
SX 902.75 -4.25
SF7 907 -4.25
BOK 32.49 +0.04
BON 32.72 +0.04
BOQ 32.79 +0.04
CK 368.50 -0.25
CN 373.50 +0
WK 477.25 -1.5
WN 484.50 -1.25
Soybean trade lower with trading finding selling with harvest continuing to move along in South America along with the more negative tone for commodities today. Meal is lower and oil points higher. South American harvest should continue to progress on a
normal pace with harvest pressure likely to limit near term upside. Long lines at the ports and backups on the highway will likely persist for a while. The COT report showed some of the strength last week was fund short covering. The oil side of the crush complex has been the strongest lately, and will need to stay that way to support crush. On the May soybean chart support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh 2-month high printed Monday at $8.97 then the 200-day at $9.05.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed; overnight trade was down a few cents. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative with some additional pressure from the weak energy trade to start the week, with ethanol futures fractionally lower this morning as they stay range bound. Heavy rains in the Mississippi Delta are slowing planting progress. This is noted supporting futures this morning. The large short position could allow bigger moves upward if additional short covering can be engaged, and another positive finish today would be a step in that direction.
Wheat trade is flat to lower across the three contracts with trade seeing pressure from the weaker row crop trade and stronger dollar. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term which should add support, with excessive moisture in the delta growing areas, while spring wheat has found some better demand lately. Egypt devalued their currency which will make further wheat imports more expensive. India looks to have some stormy weather in the near term which might cause some damage to the growing crop. If the Fed
raises U.S. interest rates this week, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of US exports..
Last changes
SMK 268.2 -3.3
SMN 271 -3.2
SMQ 272.2 -3.1
SMU 273.2 -3
SMV 273.6 -2.9
SMZ 275.2 -2.8
SMF7 276.2 -2.9
SK 892 -3.75
SN 897.75 -4.25
SQ 900 -4
SU 899.75 -4.25
SX 902.75 -4.25
SF7 907 -4.25
BOK 32.49 +0.04
BON 32.72 +0.04
BOQ 32.79 +0.04
CK 368.50 -0.25
CN 373.50 +0
WK 477.25 -1.5
WN 484.50 -1.25
Soybean trade lower with trading finding selling with harvest continuing to move along in South America along with the more negative tone for commodities today. Meal is lower and oil points higher. South American harvest should continue to progress on a
normal pace with harvest pressure likely to limit near term upside. Long lines at the ports and backups on the highway will likely persist for a while. The COT report showed some of the strength last week was fund short covering. The oil side of the crush complex has been the strongest lately, and will need to stay that way to support crush. On the May soybean chart support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh 2-month high printed Monday at $8.97 then the 200-day at $9.05.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed; overnight trade was down a few cents. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative with some additional pressure from the weak energy trade to start the week, with ethanol futures fractionally lower this morning as they stay range bound. Heavy rains in the Mississippi Delta are slowing planting progress. This is noted supporting futures this morning. The large short position could allow bigger moves upward if additional short covering can be engaged, and another positive finish today would be a step in that direction.
Wheat trade is flat to lower across the three contracts with trade seeing pressure from the weaker row crop trade and stronger dollar. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term which should add support, with excessive moisture in the delta growing areas, while spring wheat has found some better demand lately. Egypt devalued their currency which will make further wheat imports more expensive. India looks to have some stormy weather in the near term which might cause some damage to the growing crop. If the Fed
raises U.S. interest rates this week, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of US exports..
Monday, March 14, 2016
CBOT Mar14 Closing comment #soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 14
Last changes
SMH 268.1 -3.9
SMK 271.5 -2
SMN 274.2 -2
SMQ 275.3 -1.9
SMU 276.2 -1.9
SMV 276.5 -2.1
SMZ 278 -2.3
SH 888 +0
SK 895.75 +0
SN 902 +0.5
SQ 904 +0.5
SU 904 +0.5
SX 907 +0.25
BOH 32.25 +0.32
BOK 32.45 +0.32
BON 32.68 +0.31
CH 366.75 +0.75
CK 368.75 +3.75
WH 471.50 +1.75
WK 478.75 +3
Soybean trade is narrowly mixed with trade moving sideways with support from corn and wheat working against South American harvest pressure. Meal is lower and oil is higher. South American harvest should continue to progress on a normal pace with harvest pressure likely to limit upside next week. There were some protests over the weekend, but they were likely insufficient to get the market too excited for a near term
reaction, but unrest in Brazil could eventually become a bigger story. The COT report showed some of the strength last week was fund short covering. The weekly export inspections were a bit softer at 715,816 metric tons. On the May soybean chart support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh two-month high printed today at $8.97 then the 200-day at $9.05
Corn trade higher with trade finding some light buying after the CFTC revealed additional non-commercial shorts added to the market last week. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative with some additional pressure from the weak energy trade to start the week, although ethanol futures have edged marginally higher this morning. The COT report following the session showed funds adding on shorts which gives us a little more short covering power if we can find the reason to move above the next resistance levels early this week. The weekly export inspections were ok at 804,499 metric tons.
Wheat trade higher across the three contracts with light buying on weather concerns to start the week. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term, which should add support, with excessive moisture in the delta growing areas. The ruble has firmed which could hurt Russian export ability, but their winter wheat looks to be in very good shape coming out of winter. India looks to have some stormy weather in the near term which might cause some damage to the growing crop. If the FED raises U.S. interest rates this week, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of U.S. exports.
Last changes
SMH 268.1 -3.9
SMK 271.5 -2
SMN 274.2 -2
SMQ 275.3 -1.9
SMU 276.2 -1.9
SMV 276.5 -2.1
SMZ 278 -2.3
SH 888 +0
SK 895.75 +0
SN 902 +0.5
SQ 904 +0.5
SU 904 +0.5
SX 907 +0.25
BOH 32.25 +0.32
BOK 32.45 +0.32
BON 32.68 +0.31
CH 366.75 +0.75
CK 368.75 +3.75
WH 471.50 +1.75
WK 478.75 +3
Soybean trade is narrowly mixed with trade moving sideways with support from corn and wheat working against South American harvest pressure. Meal is lower and oil is higher. South American harvest should continue to progress on a normal pace with harvest pressure likely to limit upside next week. There were some protests over the weekend, but they were likely insufficient to get the market too excited for a near term
reaction, but unrest in Brazil could eventually become a bigger story. The COT report showed some of the strength last week was fund short covering. The weekly export inspections were a bit softer at 715,816 metric tons. On the May soybean chart support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh two-month high printed today at $8.97 then the 200-day at $9.05
Corn trade higher with trade finding some light buying after the CFTC revealed additional non-commercial shorts added to the market last week. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative with some additional pressure from the weak energy trade to start the week, although ethanol futures have edged marginally higher this morning. The COT report following the session showed funds adding on shorts which gives us a little more short covering power if we can find the reason to move above the next resistance levels early this week. The weekly export inspections were ok at 804,499 metric tons.
Wheat trade higher across the three contracts with light buying on weather concerns to start the week. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term, which should add support, with excessive moisture in the delta growing areas. The ruble has firmed which could hurt Russian export ability, but their winter wheat looks to be in very good shape coming out of winter. India looks to have some stormy weather in the near term which might cause some damage to the growing crop. If the FED raises U.S. interest rates this week, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of U.S. exports.
Saturday, March 12, 2016
CBOT MAr 11 Closing comment #soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 11
Last changes
SMH 272 +1.8
SMK 273.5 +1.6
SMN 276.2 +1.6
SMQ 277.2 +1.5
SMU 278.1 +1.3
SMV 278.6 +1.1
SMZ 280.3 +0.9
SH 888 +6.25
SK 895.75 +6.5
SN 901.5 +6.75
SQ 903.5 +6.75
SU 903.5 +6.25
SX 906.75 +6
BOH 31.93 +0.52
BOK 32.13 +0.51
BON 32.37 +0.51
CH 366.00 +3.5
CK 365.00 +2.25
WH 469.75 -1.75
WK 475.75 -1.25
The Dow is higher today with traders around the world finally deciding that the ECB stimulus yesterday was a good thing. Crude oil is trading at a high of $39.96/barrel on its way to confirming a bottom has probably arrived. Because it is Friday look to possibly trade both sides today.
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is higher. Energies are higher with crude up. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle and feeders sharply higher and hogs mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold down.
Corn trade is higher due to outside market support and noted commercial support. The warm weather should allow early fieldwork to continue to make rapid progress and allow for early planting, although the cooler weather should appear towards the end of next week. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative but the blender economics have improved substantially to start the month. USDA announced 170,800 metric tons of corn sold to Japan.
Soybean trade is higher. Meal is fractionally lower and bean oil is up due to spillover support from the outside markets. Overall there is limited fresh news today illustrated by the mixed daily changes in the soy complex. South American harvest should continue to progress in the near-term potentially triggering some selling later in the session. The Brazilian currency continues to rally improving US competitiveness. Crush margins continue to improve with the strength of the oil side of the complex, with palm oil streaking higher as well. On the May soybean chart, support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh two-month high printed this morning at $8.95, then the 200-day at $9.05.
Last changes
SMH 272 +1.8
SMK 273.5 +1.6
SMN 276.2 +1.6
SMQ 277.2 +1.5
SMU 278.1 +1.3
SMV 278.6 +1.1
SMZ 280.3 +0.9
SH 888 +6.25
SK 895.75 +6.5
SN 901.5 +6.75
SQ 903.5 +6.75
SU 903.5 +6.25
SX 906.75 +6
BOH 31.93 +0.52
BOK 32.13 +0.51
BON 32.37 +0.51
CH 366.00 +3.5
CK 365.00 +2.25
WH 469.75 -1.75
WK 475.75 -1.25
The Dow is higher today with traders around the world finally deciding that the ECB stimulus yesterday was a good thing. Crude oil is trading at a high of $39.96/barrel on its way to confirming a bottom has probably arrived. Because it is Friday look to possibly trade both sides today.
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is higher. Energies are higher with crude up. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle and feeders sharply higher and hogs mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold down.
Corn trade is higher due to outside market support and noted commercial support. The warm weather should allow early fieldwork to continue to make rapid progress and allow for early planting, although the cooler weather should appear towards the end of next week. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative but the blender economics have improved substantially to start the month. USDA announced 170,800 metric tons of corn sold to Japan.
Soybean trade is higher. Meal is fractionally lower and bean oil is up due to spillover support from the outside markets. Overall there is limited fresh news today illustrated by the mixed daily changes in the soy complex. South American harvest should continue to progress in the near-term potentially triggering some selling later in the session. The Brazilian currency continues to rally improving US competitiveness. Crush margins continue to improve with the strength of the oil side of the complex, with palm oil streaking higher as well. On the May soybean chart, support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh two-month high printed this morning at $8.95, then the 200-day at $9.05.
Friday, February 26, 2016
CBOT Feb 26 Closing comment #soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Feb 26
Last changes
SMH 257.2 -2.8
SMK 260.6 -2.1
SMN 263.3 -1.9
SMQ 264.5 -1.9
SMU 266 -1.7
SMV 266.7 -1.7
SMZ 268.8 -1.4
SH 855 -4
SK 863.5 -2
SN 870 -1.75
SQ 872.5 -1.25
SU 873 -1
SX 876 -0.75
BOH 31.03 +0.38
BOK 31.23 +0.32
BON 31.47 +0.33
CH 354.50 -1
CK 359.50 -1
WH 443.25 -2
WK 452.25 -1.75
U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the DOW futures down. Interest rate products are higher. The dollar index points higher. Energies are mixed with crude up. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold down.
The markets opened on a mixed note and stayed that way throughout the session with traders taking profits on short positions. Major trend trades came back into play with spreaders buying soyoil / sell meal, with a slant towards buy corn/sell beans, courtesy of the USDA Agriculture Forum numbers.
The major feature in the soy complex was that of higher soyoil futures which found support from rising crude oil prices which traded at $34.69/barrel, the highest level since January. July oilshare rose from .37% up to .3753% in May. May meal quickly dropped to new contract lows at $258.90 where it found light pricing interest. May soyoil prices put in a very firm trade heading back towards the 3150's level, a chart stabilizing trade. Beans tried to maintain an even keel, starting a bit higher but finding pressure from meal's new contract lows.
Corn futures are lower. Ethanol margins should be getting a boost from the stronger energy complex with the switchover to the more expensive spring gasoline blends under way. South American corn looks to catch better rains for double-crop acres in the extended forecast. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum put new-crop carryout for this year at 1.9771 bil bu on a 168 yield and 90 mil acres. The sell-off this week appeared to be in anticipation of negative numbers like we have discussed. Basis has been soft this week with more active farmer movement.
Wheat futures lower with the weaker row crops and stronger dollar dragging wheat prices down. Egypt returned to the market Thursday and was able to secure further supplies from the Black Sea area as U.S. wheat remains uncompetitive on the world market. Weather looks nonthreatening in the near term. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum has wheat acres at 51.4 mil acres with a 938 mil bu carryout.
fund recap
sold 3000 wheat
sold 7000 corn
sold 5000 beans
sold 300 meal
bot 3000 soyoil
CLOSING COMMENTS
While there may not be many bull market opportunities here, seems that a few primary trends are coming to the fore - both old and new. On the old buy soyoil / sell meal is still alive and well as witnessed today. As to the new think we are going to see sell corn and buy bean (maybe even wheat) trade moving forward. With March on the doorstep, if farmers can get into the field to plant they will. Up to now corn prices have reflected value, trading sideways. But it's hard to keep corn prices up when the crop begins to get into the ground. The Forum numbers which were bearish corn/friendlier beans, could have jump started the process today.
Last changes
SMH 257.2 -2.8
SMK 260.6 -2.1
SMN 263.3 -1.9
SMQ 264.5 -1.9
SMU 266 -1.7
SMV 266.7 -1.7
SMZ 268.8 -1.4
SH 855 -4
SK 863.5 -2
SN 870 -1.75
SQ 872.5 -1.25
SU 873 -1
SX 876 -0.75
BOH 31.03 +0.38
BOK 31.23 +0.32
BON 31.47 +0.33
CH 354.50 -1
CK 359.50 -1
WH 443.25 -2
WK 452.25 -1.75
U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the DOW futures down. Interest rate products are higher. The dollar index points higher. Energies are mixed with crude up. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold down.
The markets opened on a mixed note and stayed that way throughout the session with traders taking profits on short positions. Major trend trades came back into play with spreaders buying soyoil / sell meal, with a slant towards buy corn/sell beans, courtesy of the USDA Agriculture Forum numbers.
The major feature in the soy complex was that of higher soyoil futures which found support from rising crude oil prices which traded at $34.69/barrel, the highest level since January. July oilshare rose from .37% up to .3753% in May. May meal quickly dropped to new contract lows at $258.90 where it found light pricing interest. May soyoil prices put in a very firm trade heading back towards the 3150's level, a chart stabilizing trade. Beans tried to maintain an even keel, starting a bit higher but finding pressure from meal's new contract lows.
Corn futures are lower. Ethanol margins should be getting a boost from the stronger energy complex with the switchover to the more expensive spring gasoline blends under way. South American corn looks to catch better rains for double-crop acres in the extended forecast. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum put new-crop carryout for this year at 1.9771 bil bu on a 168 yield and 90 mil acres. The sell-off this week appeared to be in anticipation of negative numbers like we have discussed. Basis has been soft this week with more active farmer movement.
Wheat futures lower with the weaker row crops and stronger dollar dragging wheat prices down. Egypt returned to the market Thursday and was able to secure further supplies from the Black Sea area as U.S. wheat remains uncompetitive on the world market. Weather looks nonthreatening in the near term. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum has wheat acres at 51.4 mil acres with a 938 mil bu carryout.
fund recap
sold 3000 wheat
sold 7000 corn
sold 5000 beans
sold 300 meal
bot 3000 soyoil
CLOSING COMMENTS
While there may not be many bull market opportunities here, seems that a few primary trends are coming to the fore - both old and new. On the old buy soyoil / sell meal is still alive and well as witnessed today. As to the new think we are going to see sell corn and buy bean (maybe even wheat) trade moving forward. With March on the doorstep, if farmers can get into the field to plant they will. Up to now corn prices have reflected value, trading sideways. But it's hard to keep corn prices up when the crop begins to get into the ground. The Forum numbers which were bearish corn/friendlier beans, could have jump started the process today.
Friday, September 24, 2010
SOYBEANS AND THE LA NINA EFFECT
The trading week started with November soybean futures surging to 15-month highs due to a frost/freeze in northeast China and Canada, and above all, the dryness in South America due to La Nina. The impact of the China freeze was a bit overblown because nearly one third of their bean crop has been harvested and the remaining crop in the field is thought to be mature enough so that this would not have much impact on yields. However, the dryness in key soybean growing areas in Mato Grosso, Brazil cannot be overlooked. .......more detail
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Why We Watch the Price of Gold in All Currencies
A common flaw that we see the average investor make is to follow their investments measured in foreign currencies and at the same time forget to calculate their local exchange rate on those investments. This is a HUGE mistake as the fluctuation of an investor’s home currency has a massive impact on their returns.
Some investors know that the price of gold has been performing well in the past few years but let’s look at the charts to see how well gold has done for investors around the world....read more
10 Best iPhone Apps For Finance and Investing
Looking for the best iPhone Applications (Apps) for finance and investing?
Here on StockTradingToGo we’ve ranked the top 10 best finance and investing iPhone apps based on usability, functionality, overall “coolness”, and most importantly they have to be FREE. All of the apps featured below can be downloaded from the iTunes Store.
1. Chase Mobile – Download – Free app and a must have for any Chase customers. Find Chase branches, ATMs, or sign in to view your credit card bills and/or bank statements, make payments, transfer money, etc. Chase is our #1 favorite free banking app because of its new feature Chase QuickDeposit where you can take a picture of your checks and deposit them via your iPhone.......read more
This decade's investment: the agriculture play
Farmer Brown here again. One of my key longer-term themes for growth investing is and has been the Agriculture Play for a few years now. The global demographics, while seemingly moving at a glacial pace to the short-term thinkers, are simply undeniable over the intermediate to longer term....read more
Investors Flock to Gold and Silver on Recovery Worries
Investors worried about the global economic recovery pushed gold prices to fresh highs on Friday, marking the third time in a week the shiny metal set a new record. Silver also climbed to its highest price in thirty years.Spot gold climbed above $1,282 an ounce in New York and London as a weakening dollar spurred demand from investors for wealth protection, while silver rose to $21.44 an ounce, its highest level since 1980.
Bullion, which usually moves inversely to the dollar, posted its biggest weekly gain since May as the greenback touched a five-week low against the euro.
Holdings in gold- backed exchange-traded products (ETP) reached a record this month as investors sought protection from financial turmoil and the prospect of slowing economic growth. ..read more
Corn: Low Yields, High Prices
FOR CORN FARMERS AND FUTURES traders, the "new normal" might already be old news.
As recently as late spring, analysts were saying the long-term outlook was for prices of $3 to $4 a bushel. That would be roughly 50% below the record highs set in 2008, but above the $2 to $3 that was the historical average before the latest boom in ethanol use.
Since then, a historic Russian heat wave has sparked concern about global grain supplies, and U.S. farmers have reported disappointing yields. Investors are increasingly taking notice, and corn futures have surged 58% since late June. They finished Friday at $5.1325 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. While a short-term correction is likely, ultimately bulls could have enough ammo to keep bears at bay for months to come...read more
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)