CBOT Mar 29
Last changes
SMK 273.2 +1.1
SMN 275.8 +1.3
SMQ 276.9 +1.3
SMU 278 +1.2
SMV 278.8 +1.2
SMZ 280.8 +1.1
SMF7 281.4 +0.8
SK 916 +7
SN 922.75 +6.75
SQ 924.75 +6.5
SU 925 +6.75
SX 928.5 +6.5
SF7 931.75 +6
BOK 34.05 +0.42
BON 34.28 +0.42
BOQ 34.37 +0.43
CK 373.00 +2.5
CN 377.25 +2.5
WK 476.75 +5.75
WN 483.75 +5.75
Soybean trade is higher with trade near our highs. Bean oil is supporting beans, up 40 points this morning, with the market taking a run at the 9-month highs printed last week. Meal is fractionally mixed finding selling on spreading against bean oil. Crude is down over $1 this morning so outside market influence is not behind this move today in bean oil. The average trade guess for the 2016 Planting intentions is at 82.95 million acres versus 82.65 a year ago, the range of estimates is 81.6-84.2 million. The quarterly stocks are estimated to be at 1.569 billion bushels versus 1.327 a year ago, the range of expectations is 1.525-1.7. On the May soybean chart we moved above all major moving averages last week but have not accelerated up. Support is at the $9.04 200-day moving average which is the highest major moving average. Resistance is at the 3-month high printed yesterday a quarter cent below $9.15 then the 5-month high at $9.17 1/2 followed by the seven-month high at $9.29 1/4.
Meal prices actually started the day on a firm note following both beans and soyoil trade. Soyoil futures stayed on a steady path higher while May beans doubled highs for the move upward at 9.14 3/4. Canola futures have continued a higher path over the past few days, with more talk that China would not lower the amount of dockage it accepts on imports of canola. Light US farmer selling was noted in the bean market with better hedge pressure from the Argentina farmer.
Corn trade higher with a positive bias with the market sitting near the high of a 5 cent trading range. Corn has held a flat but higher trend the past three weeks with some new highs for the move yesterday and again today. Weather will have a bigger effect on what this market does in April and May to either grow our comfortable supplies, or lower them for the 2016-17 crop year. But for this week the market is focused on Thursday. The numbers would need to come out outside of the range of expectations on the low side to spark a rally, and if we acreage would come in at 91 million or higher, we could quickly challenge the contract lows on Thursday. The average trade guess is for the 2016 US corn acreage to be at 90.047 million acres, the range of estimates is 89-91.5 million. The March 1 Corn stocks are expected to be at 7.822 billion bushels versus 7.75 billion a
year ago. The range of estimates is 7.745-8.1 billion..
Wheat trade is higher across the three markets with support from beans and light follow-through buying following the strength yesterday. Support yesterday came from ongoing weather concerns after cold weather in the U.S. , and potential for a cold snap in Russia, although Russian temperatures have moderated. Plains weather is expected to remain fairly dry as well, with some potential uptick in the extended forecast. The Kansas weekly crop ratings were 57% good to excellent down 1 percentage point. The full reports should start next Monday, April 4. World supplies remain ample which will limit bigger rallies even with the U.S. acreage down. The average trade guess for the total
wheat planted acreate is at 51.659 million acres versus 54.644 a year ago.
Friday, April 1, 2016
CBOT Mar28 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 28
Last changes
SMK 272.1 -3.2
SMN 274.5 -3.3
SMQ 275.6 -3.3
SMU 276.8 -3.2
SMV 277.6 -3.3
SMZ 279.7 -3.1
SMF7 280.6 -3.1
SK 909 -1.5
SN 916 -1.75
SQ 918.25 -1.75
SU 918.25 -1.25
SX 922 -0.75
SF7 925.75 -0.75
BOK 33.63 +0.45
BON 33.86 +0.45
BOQ 33.94 +0.43
CK 370.50 +0.5
CN 374.75 +0.25
WK 471.00 +8
WN 478.00 +7.25
PALM OIL - up 45 ringgits on more production concerns
The stock market is called higher today with traders expecting more of a rally with crude oil in the green as well. Crude oil is finding some resistance at $41/barrel, with the US dollar weaker along with gold prices. But this week we begin earnings again, so this could be a difficult week for the Dow in terms of continuing US dollar strength.
We are getting closer each day to the March 31 Planting Intentions report and the end-of-month. These are big deals, but the only markets to actually change its trading range is soyoil and soybean futures. These two markets have established new highs in recent weeks, while corn and wheat prices merely sit in the middle of trading ranges. Meal prices also got a considerable boost but it was courtesy of the short getting out of those positions.
The highlights from last week included a record amount of meal sales which was unexpected and took the trade off guard. Friday the USDA flashed a 304,000 tons of soybeans sold to unknown. Soyoil sales were also good, and this morning we are back to lower meal (on cash weakness) with higher soyoil on crude strength. In fact, the strongest feature of the morning is soyoil strength once again with the May chart appearing ready to offer more upside possibilities. The palm oil market is also sharply higher as more production problems continue. The problem for soyoil is now the record long in the market. Funds actually added to their net short wheat position in recent weeks while slightly long beans.
In a few weeks we will begin our planting pace reporting for corn in the Delta. At this point rains continue to persist across the area frustrating farmers who are ready to go.
Crush values have inched higher on product strength with July crush at 63/64c/bu. Oilshare firmed back to 38% after seeing a pullback last week. July/Dec corn spreads firmed to 12 3/4. May / July meal spreads are trading into $2.40 to begin the day.
Last changes
SMK 272.1 -3.2
SMN 274.5 -3.3
SMQ 275.6 -3.3
SMU 276.8 -3.2
SMV 277.6 -3.3
SMZ 279.7 -3.1
SMF7 280.6 -3.1
SK 909 -1.5
SN 916 -1.75
SQ 918.25 -1.75
SU 918.25 -1.25
SX 922 -0.75
SF7 925.75 -0.75
BOK 33.63 +0.45
BON 33.86 +0.45
BOQ 33.94 +0.43
CK 370.50 +0.5
CN 374.75 +0.25
WK 471.00 +8
WN 478.00 +7.25
PALM OIL - up 45 ringgits on more production concerns
The stock market is called higher today with traders expecting more of a rally with crude oil in the green as well. Crude oil is finding some resistance at $41/barrel, with the US dollar weaker along with gold prices. But this week we begin earnings again, so this could be a difficult week for the Dow in terms of continuing US dollar strength.
We are getting closer each day to the March 31 Planting Intentions report and the end-of-month. These are big deals, but the only markets to actually change its trading range is soyoil and soybean futures. These two markets have established new highs in recent weeks, while corn and wheat prices merely sit in the middle of trading ranges. Meal prices also got a considerable boost but it was courtesy of the short getting out of those positions.
The highlights from last week included a record amount of meal sales which was unexpected and took the trade off guard. Friday the USDA flashed a 304,000 tons of soybeans sold to unknown. Soyoil sales were also good, and this morning we are back to lower meal (on cash weakness) with higher soyoil on crude strength. In fact, the strongest feature of the morning is soyoil strength once again with the May chart appearing ready to offer more upside possibilities. The palm oil market is also sharply higher as more production problems continue. The problem for soyoil is now the record long in the market. Funds actually added to their net short wheat position in recent weeks while slightly long beans.
In a few weeks we will begin our planting pace reporting for corn in the Delta. At this point rains continue to persist across the area frustrating farmers who are ready to go.
Crush values have inched higher on product strength with July crush at 63/64c/bu. Oilshare firmed back to 38% after seeing a pullback last week. July/Dec corn spreads firmed to 12 3/4. May / July meal spreads are trading into $2.40 to begin the day.
CBOT Mar24 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 24
Last changes
SMK 275.3 +4.4
SMN 277.8 +4.2
SMQ 278.9 +4.2
SMU 280 +4.2
SMV 280.9 +4.5
SMZ 282.8 +4.4
SMF7 283.7 +4.4
SK 910.5 +5.25
SN 917.75 +5.5
SQ 920 +5.75
SU 919.5 +5.5
SX 922.75 +5.5
SF7 926.5 +5.5
BOK 33.18 -0.18
BON 33.41 -0.18
BOQ 33.51 -0.17
CK 370.00 +1.5
CN 374.50 +1.25
WK 463.00 +0
WN 470.75 +0
Soybean trade is higher with buying returning during the day session as we continue to consolidate trade above $9.00. Meal is higher and oil is lower. South American harvest should continue to move along this week, running just ahead of normal pace with more variable yields in recent days. Shipping delays and political concerns will remain ongoing with improved weather potentially bolstering the shipping pace. The oil side of the complex continues to drive crush margins in the near term, although it has backed off in the last few days. Export sales were mixed with 410,800 metric tons of beans, 468,700 of meal, and 24,400 of oil. May beans have held above the 200-day moving average at $9.04. On the May soybean chart further support is the 10-day moving average at $8.98 with resistance at the high for the move at $9.12.
Corn trade higher with trade continuing to grind along in the recent range. Ethanol margins are seeing further pressure from the slide in the energy values taking away the small premium that unleaded gas built into ethanol with ethanol futures edging higher again today. The blizzard working through much of the corn belt will limit early fieldwork going into the weekend. The South American corn crop continues to make good progress with limited weather concerns. The weekly export sales are were ok at 803,200 metric tons of old crop, and 99,900 of new crop. The USDA also announced 260,000 metric tons of old crop sold to Taiwan. Trade will be closed Friday for Good Friday.
Wheat trade is lower across the three contracts with spillover selling pressure from the row crops along with the firmer dollar. Plains weather remains concerning in the near term with dry weather and further cold snaps possible into early April. World supplies remain ample which will limit potential rallies until more export business returns to the U.S., with the stronger dollar again eroding U.S. export competitiveness. Export sales
showed some improvement at 368.900 metric tons of old crop, and 118,800 of new.
Last changes
SMK 275.3 +4.4
SMN 277.8 +4.2
SMQ 278.9 +4.2
SMU 280 +4.2
SMV 280.9 +4.5
SMZ 282.8 +4.4
SMF7 283.7 +4.4
SK 910.5 +5.25
SN 917.75 +5.5
SQ 920 +5.75
SU 919.5 +5.5
SX 922.75 +5.5
SF7 926.5 +5.5
BOK 33.18 -0.18
BON 33.41 -0.18
BOQ 33.51 -0.17
CK 370.00 +1.5
CN 374.50 +1.25
WK 463.00 +0
WN 470.75 +0
Soybean trade is higher with buying returning during the day session as we continue to consolidate trade above $9.00. Meal is higher and oil is lower. South American harvest should continue to move along this week, running just ahead of normal pace with more variable yields in recent days. Shipping delays and political concerns will remain ongoing with improved weather potentially bolstering the shipping pace. The oil side of the complex continues to drive crush margins in the near term, although it has backed off in the last few days. Export sales were mixed with 410,800 metric tons of beans, 468,700 of meal, and 24,400 of oil. May beans have held above the 200-day moving average at $9.04. On the May soybean chart further support is the 10-day moving average at $8.98 with resistance at the high for the move at $9.12.
Corn trade higher with trade continuing to grind along in the recent range. Ethanol margins are seeing further pressure from the slide in the energy values taking away the small premium that unleaded gas built into ethanol with ethanol futures edging higher again today. The blizzard working through much of the corn belt will limit early fieldwork going into the weekend. The South American corn crop continues to make good progress with limited weather concerns. The weekly export sales are were ok at 803,200 metric tons of old crop, and 99,900 of new crop. The USDA also announced 260,000 metric tons of old crop sold to Taiwan. Trade will be closed Friday for Good Friday.
Wheat trade is lower across the three contracts with spillover selling pressure from the row crops along with the firmer dollar. Plains weather remains concerning in the near term with dry weather and further cold snaps possible into early April. World supplies remain ample which will limit potential rallies until more export business returns to the U.S., with the stronger dollar again eroding U.S. export competitiveness. Export sales
showed some improvement at 368.900 metric tons of old crop, and 118,800 of new.
CBOT Mar23 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 23
Last changes
SMK 270.9 -0.1
SMN 273.6 -0.1
SMQ 274.7 +0
SMU 275.8 +0
SMV 276.4 -0.1
SMZ 278.4 +0.1
SMF7 279.3 +0.1
SK 905.25 -5
SN 912.25 -4.75
SQ 914.25 -4.75
SU 914 -4.75
SX 917.25 -4.25
SF7 921 -4.25
BOK 33.36 -0.57
BON 33.59 -0.56
BOQ 33.68 -0.56
CK 368.50 -1.5
CN 373.25 -1.5
WK 463.00 -3.75
WN 470.75 -3.75
Soybean trade lower with trade fading from the highs seen yesterday with South American harvest pressure ongoing along with negative outside markets. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is lower. South American harvest should continue to move along this week, running just ahead of normal pace with more variable yields in recent days. Shipping delays and political concerns will remain ongoing with the real holding much of
the recent gains although it is fading today. The oil side of the complex continues to drive crush margins in the near term, although it has backed off overnight. May beans have edged above the 200-day moving average at $9.04 yesterday, and will need to hold above that area today to garner more support. On the May soybean chart further support is the 10-day moving average at $8.98.
Corn trade is lower with the negative overall commodity market environment and limited fresh news. The weekly ethanol report showed production off 4,000 barrels per day, and stocks were 1.5% lower. Corn planting progress in the Mississippi Delta will remain slow in the near term, although warmer and drier temperatures through midweek will help before moisture moves through much of the belt. The South American corn crop continues to make good progress. Basis is likely to stay sideways to lower into midweek
with increased farmer movement on the recent rally. Trade will be closed Friday for Good Friday and open normal on Sunday night.
Wheat trade lower across the three contracts with spillover selling pressure from the row crops along with the firmer dollar. Plains weather remains concerning in the near term with dry weather and further cold snaps possible. World supplies remain ample which will limit potential rallies until more export business returns to the U.S., with the rest the world remaining cheaper than U.S. origin with Russia setting export records. Chart rallies should remain a common place with the market historically low.
Last changes
SMK 270.9 -0.1
SMN 273.6 -0.1
SMQ 274.7 +0
SMU 275.8 +0
SMV 276.4 -0.1
SMZ 278.4 +0.1
SMF7 279.3 +0.1
SK 905.25 -5
SN 912.25 -4.75
SQ 914.25 -4.75
SU 914 -4.75
SX 917.25 -4.25
SF7 921 -4.25
BOK 33.36 -0.57
BON 33.59 -0.56
BOQ 33.68 -0.56
CK 368.50 -1.5
CN 373.25 -1.5
WK 463.00 -3.75
WN 470.75 -3.75
Soybean trade lower with trade fading from the highs seen yesterday with South American harvest pressure ongoing along with negative outside markets. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is lower. South American harvest should continue to move along this week, running just ahead of normal pace with more variable yields in recent days. Shipping delays and political concerns will remain ongoing with the real holding much of
the recent gains although it is fading today. The oil side of the complex continues to drive crush margins in the near term, although it has backed off overnight. May beans have edged above the 200-day moving average at $9.04 yesterday, and will need to hold above that area today to garner more support. On the May soybean chart further support is the 10-day moving average at $8.98.
Corn trade is lower with the negative overall commodity market environment and limited fresh news. The weekly ethanol report showed production off 4,000 barrels per day, and stocks were 1.5% lower. Corn planting progress in the Mississippi Delta will remain slow in the near term, although warmer and drier temperatures through midweek will help before moisture moves through much of the belt. The South American corn crop continues to make good progress. Basis is likely to stay sideways to lower into midweek
with increased farmer movement on the recent rally. Trade will be closed Friday for Good Friday and open normal on Sunday night.
Wheat trade lower across the three contracts with spillover selling pressure from the row crops along with the firmer dollar. Plains weather remains concerning in the near term with dry weather and further cold snaps possible. World supplies remain ample which will limit potential rallies until more export business returns to the U.S., with the rest the world remaining cheaper than U.S. origin with Russia setting export records. Chart rallies should remain a common place with the market historically low.
CBOT Mar22 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
The markets opened as called with more buying in the soyoil and bean markets. Grains were slower followers,
with corn and wheat markets steady.
SOY
The feature of the day was higher trade for beans and soyoil futures. Reasons were many from technical
considerations (beans over the 200 day moving average) up to funds flipping from short to long beans.
But the continuation of strong soyoil trade was perhaps the real catalyst for higher values. Palm oil
markets continue to head upward on supply fears, with crude oil trading up to new highs at $41.90/barrel.
The much higher path of soyoil put a floor under beans. May meal buy stops were triggered when prices
took out minor resistance at 271.00, sending prices higher to 273.40 approaching the upper end of the
trading range at 275.00. May beans found new buying interest with chart watchers looking at $9.08 as
key resistance. The new bean high was once again met with good selling interest from the country,
as farmers take advantage of higher prices to get something sold. July crush was trading from 61/62c/bu.
Oilshare was firmer with soyoil's advances trading to .3847%.
GRAINS
Corn and wheat prices started the day following bean strength, but the charts continue to suggest that they
are at fair value right where they are. As such, May corn found significant selling interest at the 100 day
moving average of $3.72. For the day it seemed like it was the job of corn and wheat to not travel too high
given their fundamentals - though export inspections yesterday were good for both. As noted below funds
were not involved in grains into the noontime hour.
Fund recap
even wheat
even corn
bot 6000 beans (adding length)
bot 3000 meal (covering shorts)
bot 3000 soyoil (adding to net length
**Upcoming events**
25 Mar - US markets /CBOT/ Singapore office will be closed on 'Friday' for Good Friday holiday.
31 Mar - USDA US'16 prospective plantings & Quarterly stocks reports
4 Apr - Weekly US crop progress report
with corn and wheat markets steady.
SOY
The feature of the day was higher trade for beans and soyoil futures. Reasons were many from technical
considerations (beans over the 200 day moving average) up to funds flipping from short to long beans.
But the continuation of strong soyoil trade was perhaps the real catalyst for higher values. Palm oil
markets continue to head upward on supply fears, with crude oil trading up to new highs at $41.90/barrel.
The much higher path of soyoil put a floor under beans. May meal buy stops were triggered when prices
took out minor resistance at 271.00, sending prices higher to 273.40 approaching the upper end of the
trading range at 275.00. May beans found new buying interest with chart watchers looking at $9.08 as
key resistance. The new bean high was once again met with good selling interest from the country,
as farmers take advantage of higher prices to get something sold. July crush was trading from 61/62c/bu.
Oilshare was firmer with soyoil's advances trading to .3847%.
GRAINS
Corn and wheat prices started the day following bean strength, but the charts continue to suggest that they
are at fair value right where they are. As such, May corn found significant selling interest at the 100 day
moving average of $3.72. For the day it seemed like it was the job of corn and wheat to not travel too high
given their fundamentals - though export inspections yesterday were good for both. As noted below funds
were not involved in grains into the noontime hour.
Fund recap
even wheat
even corn
bot 6000 beans (adding length)
bot 3000 meal (covering shorts)
bot 3000 soyoil (adding to net length
**Upcoming events**
25 Mar - US markets /CBOT/ Singapore office will be closed on 'Friday' for Good Friday holiday.
31 Mar - USDA US'16 prospective plantings & Quarterly stocks reports
4 Apr - Weekly US crop progress report
CBOT Mar21 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 21
Last changes
SMK 268.8 +2.2
SMN 271.4 +2.1
SMQ 272.4 +1.9
SMU 273.6 +2
SMV 274.2 +1.9
SMZ 276.1 +1.9
SMF7 277.2 +1.8
SK 902 +4.5
SN 908.25 +4
SQ 910.5 +4
SU 910.5 +4.25
SX 913.5 +3.75
SF7 917.5 +3.5
BOK 33.58 +0.16
BON 33.82 +0.17
BOQ 33.90 +0.17
CK 369.50 +2.5
CN 374.25 +2.5
WK 466.50 +3.5
WN 473.50 +3.25
It's officially springtime but you wouldn't know it judging by the weather in the Midwest. The upper east coast is getting a blanket of snow, and the spring breakers down south will be laying out on the beach with wind breakers on.
The political scene in Brazil remains a turbulent one, with Brazil's President's appointment of Lula to a government position met with scrutiny and calls for him to be ousted. On the Ag side, there will be a 24 hour strike by Brazil's stevedore's calling for higher wages. While it involves all terminals not sure which commodity will be impacted.
The Friday Cattle on Feed was price positive for grains with Feb placements at 8 year highs. That report was friendly for corn, but last week's commitment-of-trader's report did show that a lot of shorts did cover in their positions. Still, there is a short under beans, corn, and wheat which will probably continue to play into price action this week since 1. it's a shortened one (closed Friday ) and 2. we still do have the March 31 Planting Intentions report
The markets opened on a mixed note with the most gains coming from the wheat pit, which supported the other markets as well. Funds went about the business covering in more short positions.
At 10:00 export inspections were released as follows:
wheat: 467,658 tons vs. 407,042 wk ago (vs. an expected 300-450)
corn: 1,013,668 tons vs. 815,149 wk ago (vs. an expected 750-950)
soybeans: 575,087 tons vs. 715,847 wk ago (vs. an expected 450-700,000)
Grain export inspections were fairly good - beans low end.
The soy complex traded on a mixed note with the most gains coming from beans and meal into midday. Hedge pressure remained light with only small farmer selling from the US and a firmer Brazilian Real shutting off farmer selling from that region. Meal prices continued to rebound as traders unwound previous buy soyoil / sell meal trade. July oilshare still continues strong at .3833%. July crush values remained relatively firm from 58/60c/bu. as meal prices continued to recover. Traders continue to monitor the one day stevedore's strike in Brazil to see if will return any biz back to the US through logistical hiccups should it turn into more than a one day affair. May soyoil values continue to congest in the upper end of recent trading ranges, which is price positive for the recent up-trend.
The commitment-of-trader's report reflected more shortcovering last week, but it did not make much of a difference today. Corn followed wheat futures higher, where more active short-covering took place right after the open. Leading the way were Kansas City wheat futures, where prices were supported by the cold temperatures this weekend in Oklahoma and Kansas.
Fund recap
bot 1000 wheat
bot 3000 corn
bot 5000 beans
bot 2000 meal
bot 1000 soyoil
OUTSIDE MARKETS
The Dow opened down 19 pts. lower but was higher by the midday hour in quiet turnover. The US dollar is firm while crude oil continues to consolidate between $35-$41/barrel. Feels like soyoil futures are matching the same pace.
There are no surprises here, as the funds continue to watch chart points and consider whether to exit a short trade. Rallies continue to be very slow and careful - but if May wheat walks above its 100 day moving average at 4.85 will be sure to light a larger fire under the market. Maybe these markets just need a higher place from which to break after the release of the March 31 Planting intentions report
Last changes
SMK 268.8 +2.2
SMN 271.4 +2.1
SMQ 272.4 +1.9
SMU 273.6 +2
SMV 274.2 +1.9
SMZ 276.1 +1.9
SMF7 277.2 +1.8
SK 902 +4.5
SN 908.25 +4
SQ 910.5 +4
SU 910.5 +4.25
SX 913.5 +3.75
SF7 917.5 +3.5
BOK 33.58 +0.16
BON 33.82 +0.17
BOQ 33.90 +0.17
CK 369.50 +2.5
CN 374.25 +2.5
WK 466.50 +3.5
WN 473.50 +3.25
It's officially springtime but you wouldn't know it judging by the weather in the Midwest. The upper east coast is getting a blanket of snow, and the spring breakers down south will be laying out on the beach with wind breakers on.
The political scene in Brazil remains a turbulent one, with Brazil's President's appointment of Lula to a government position met with scrutiny and calls for him to be ousted. On the Ag side, there will be a 24 hour strike by Brazil's stevedore's calling for higher wages. While it involves all terminals not sure which commodity will be impacted.
The Friday Cattle on Feed was price positive for grains with Feb placements at 8 year highs. That report was friendly for corn, but last week's commitment-of-trader's report did show that a lot of shorts did cover in their positions. Still, there is a short under beans, corn, and wheat which will probably continue to play into price action this week since 1. it's a shortened one (closed Friday ) and 2. we still do have the March 31 Planting Intentions report
The markets opened on a mixed note with the most gains coming from the wheat pit, which supported the other markets as well. Funds went about the business covering in more short positions.
At 10:00 export inspections were released as follows:
wheat: 467,658 tons vs. 407,042 wk ago (vs. an expected 300-450)
corn: 1,013,668 tons vs. 815,149 wk ago (vs. an expected 750-950)
soybeans: 575,087 tons vs. 715,847 wk ago (vs. an expected 450-700,000)
Grain export inspections were fairly good - beans low end.
The soy complex traded on a mixed note with the most gains coming from beans and meal into midday. Hedge pressure remained light with only small farmer selling from the US and a firmer Brazilian Real shutting off farmer selling from that region. Meal prices continued to rebound as traders unwound previous buy soyoil / sell meal trade. July oilshare still continues strong at .3833%. July crush values remained relatively firm from 58/60c/bu. as meal prices continued to recover. Traders continue to monitor the one day stevedore's strike in Brazil to see if will return any biz back to the US through logistical hiccups should it turn into more than a one day affair. May soyoil values continue to congest in the upper end of recent trading ranges, which is price positive for the recent up-trend.
The commitment-of-trader's report reflected more shortcovering last week, but it did not make much of a difference today. Corn followed wheat futures higher, where more active short-covering took place right after the open. Leading the way were Kansas City wheat futures, where prices were supported by the cold temperatures this weekend in Oklahoma and Kansas.
Fund recap
bot 1000 wheat
bot 3000 corn
bot 5000 beans
bot 2000 meal
bot 1000 soyoil
OUTSIDE MARKETS
The Dow opened down 19 pts. lower but was higher by the midday hour in quiet turnover. The US dollar is firm while crude oil continues to consolidate between $35-$41/barrel. Feels like soyoil futures are matching the same pace.
There are no surprises here, as the funds continue to watch chart points and consider whether to exit a short trade. Rallies continue to be very slow and careful - but if May wheat walks above its 100 day moving average at 4.85 will be sure to light a larger fire under the market. Maybe these markets just need a higher place from which to break after the release of the March 31 Planting intentions report
Friday, March 18, 2016
CBOT Mar18 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 18
Last changes
SMK 266.6 -0.4
SMN 269.3 -0.4
SMQ 270.5 -0.5
SMU 271.6 -0.5
SMV 272.3 -0.4
SMZ 274.2 -0.3
SMF7 275.4 -0.1
SK 897.5 -0.25
SN 904.25 +0.25
SQ 906.5 +0.25
SU 906.25 +0
SX 909.75 +0.5
SF7 914 +0.5
BOK 33.42 +0.01
BON 33.65 +0.01
BOQ 33.73 +0.01
CK 367.00 -1.5
CN 371.75 -1.25
WK 463.00 +0.5
WN 470.25 +0.25
The markets opened mostly as called with little going on except light position-evening. May beans
and soyoil continued to hold while grains traded lower on the day led by corn and KC wheat.
Informa numbers were released today with bean acreage at a higher 84 million acres in 2016 (higher
than the Outlook Forum) with corn at 89.5 million and wheat cut by 3 million acres to 51.2 million.
ON this low-volume day the market had little reaction to the numbers.
SOY
The soy complex traded on a mixed note but the firm tone in beans and soyoil did not lose its
feeling all day. LIght profit-taking was noted for the soyoil market as bulls took advantage of the
trend - higher rally all week long. Plus, crude oil futures also broke into the red for the day as
short-covering in that market took a break. July oilshare remained firm at .3850% with crude values
trading from 58/59c/bu. Buy soy / sell corn trade was also a feature. May/July meal spreads remain
weaker trading to a 2.90 carry. IN larger trades of note: Futures Int'l purchased 500 July 8.20 bean puts.
GRAINS
Wheat values were on the defensive today with most of the losses coming from the Kansas city
market. Traders are unwinding previous buy KC/sell CBOT wheat spreads. May wheat traded
just to next support at $4.57 which appeared for the day to hold. May corn broke lower from its
key resistance level at 3.72 with good selling against it as prices worked lower.
Last changes
SMK 266.6 -0.4
SMN 269.3 -0.4
SMQ 270.5 -0.5
SMU 271.6 -0.5
SMV 272.3 -0.4
SMZ 274.2 -0.3
SMF7 275.4 -0.1
SK 897.5 -0.25
SN 904.25 +0.25
SQ 906.5 +0.25
SU 906.25 +0
SX 909.75 +0.5
SF7 914 +0.5
BOK 33.42 +0.01
BON 33.65 +0.01
BOQ 33.73 +0.01
CK 367.00 -1.5
CN 371.75 -1.25
WK 463.00 +0.5
WN 470.25 +0.25
The markets opened mostly as called with little going on except light position-evening. May beans
and soyoil continued to hold while grains traded lower on the day led by corn and KC wheat.
Informa numbers were released today with bean acreage at a higher 84 million acres in 2016 (higher
than the Outlook Forum) with corn at 89.5 million and wheat cut by 3 million acres to 51.2 million.
ON this low-volume day the market had little reaction to the numbers.
SOY
The soy complex traded on a mixed note but the firm tone in beans and soyoil did not lose its
feeling all day. LIght profit-taking was noted for the soyoil market as bulls took advantage of the
trend - higher rally all week long. Plus, crude oil futures also broke into the red for the day as
short-covering in that market took a break. July oilshare remained firm at .3850% with crude values
trading from 58/59c/bu. Buy soy / sell corn trade was also a feature. May/July meal spreads remain
weaker trading to a 2.90 carry. IN larger trades of note: Futures Int'l purchased 500 July 8.20 bean puts.
GRAINS
Wheat values were on the defensive today with most of the losses coming from the Kansas city
market. Traders are unwinding previous buy KC/sell CBOT wheat spreads. May wheat traded
just to next support at $4.57 which appeared for the day to hold. May corn broke lower from its
key resistance level at 3.72 with good selling against it as prices worked lower.
CBOT Mar17 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 17
Last changes
SMK 267 -0.7
SMN 269.7 -0.7
SMQ 271 -0.5
SMU 272.1 -0.5
SMV 272.7 -0.4
SMZ 274.5 -0.2
SMF7 275.5 -0.3
SK 897.75 +3.25
SN 904 +3.75
SQ 906.25 +4
SU 906.25 +4
SX 909.25 +4.25
SF7 913.5 +4.25
BOK 33.41 +0.72
BON 33.64 +0.72
BOQ 33.72 +0.72
CK 368.50 +0.25
CN 373.00 -0.25
WK 462.50 -8.25
WN 470.00 -8.25
The markets opened as called today with more new highs in the soyoil chart. But later in the day lower grains pulled higher soy complex trade off the new highs.
The soy complex traded into new highs and key resistance for many areas of the market. May soyoil futures etched a new high for the move up at 3355, which created a floor under beans. May beans traded to trendline resistance at 9.04 1/2 before finding some resistance to higher prices. Meal traded both sides first, consolidating sideways between 265.00-270.00 for the May contract. The saga in the Brazil political scene continues with protests flying as Lula becomes Chief of Staff. The Brazilian Real continues to stay firm, shutting off farmer selling from that area. But US farmers were good sellers on this bean rally, taking advantages of higher prices to get something marketed.
The buy soyoil/sell meal trade continues to be the key trend and the main story. Weaker cash meal and lower exports continue - as Argentine meal displaces US. Meal spreads were continuing weaker with May/July trading to $2.80 carry and May/July beans trading at a 6 1/2 carry. A continuing strong performance on the technical side from soyoil charts, and higher palm on production worries vs. weaker export meal outlooks underpinned oilshare which moved to new highs with July over 38% and May at .3850%.
Wheat futures started the day higher but once again started to set up a new failure point in the May contract at $4.75. Better chances of rain in the plains and poor export sales set-up the downturn which impacted corn after it traded to new highs for the move upward. Kansas City futures led the way down for wheat, off 15c by noontime. Sell-stops were triggered in CBOT values when prices broke $4.65.
fund recap
sold 3000 wheat
bot 4000 beans
bot 4000 soyoil
The Dow opened lower but traded both sides quickly, advancing to over 100 pts by midday. The US dollar is significantly weaker with more comments about the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future.
Last changes
SMK 267 -0.7
SMN 269.7 -0.7
SMQ 271 -0.5
SMU 272.1 -0.5
SMV 272.7 -0.4
SMZ 274.5 -0.2
SMF7 275.5 -0.3
SK 897.75 +3.25
SN 904 +3.75
SQ 906.25 +4
SU 906.25 +4
SX 909.25 +4.25
SF7 913.5 +4.25
BOK 33.41 +0.72
BON 33.64 +0.72
BOQ 33.72 +0.72
CK 368.50 +0.25
CN 373.00 -0.25
WK 462.50 -8.25
WN 470.00 -8.25
The markets opened as called today with more new highs in the soyoil chart. But later in the day lower grains pulled higher soy complex trade off the new highs.
The soy complex traded into new highs and key resistance for many areas of the market. May soyoil futures etched a new high for the move up at 3355, which created a floor under beans. May beans traded to trendline resistance at 9.04 1/2 before finding some resistance to higher prices. Meal traded both sides first, consolidating sideways between 265.00-270.00 for the May contract. The saga in the Brazil political scene continues with protests flying as Lula becomes Chief of Staff. The Brazilian Real continues to stay firm, shutting off farmer selling from that area. But US farmers were good sellers on this bean rally, taking advantages of higher prices to get something marketed.
The buy soyoil/sell meal trade continues to be the key trend and the main story. Weaker cash meal and lower exports continue - as Argentine meal displaces US. Meal spreads were continuing weaker with May/July trading to $2.80 carry and May/July beans trading at a 6 1/2 carry. A continuing strong performance on the technical side from soyoil charts, and higher palm on production worries vs. weaker export meal outlooks underpinned oilshare which moved to new highs with July over 38% and May at .3850%.
Wheat futures started the day higher but once again started to set up a new failure point in the May contract at $4.75. Better chances of rain in the plains and poor export sales set-up the downturn which impacted corn after it traded to new highs for the move upward. Kansas City futures led the way down for wheat, off 15c by noontime. Sell-stops were triggered in CBOT values when prices broke $4.65.
fund recap
sold 3000 wheat
bot 4000 beans
bot 4000 soyoil
The Dow opened lower but traded both sides quickly, advancing to over 100 pts by midday. The US dollar is significantly weaker with more comments about the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future.
CBOT Mar16 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 16
Last changes
SMK 267.7 -0.5
SMN 270.4 -0.6
SMQ 271.5 -0.7
SMU 272.6 -0.6
SMV 273.1 -0.5
SMZ 274.7 -0.5
SMF7 275.8 -0.4
SK 894.5 +2.5
SN 900.25 +2.5
SQ 902.25 +2.25
SU 902.25 +2.5
SX 905 +2.25
SF7 909.25 +2.25
BOK 32.69 +0.2
BON 32.92 +0.2
BOQ 33.00 +0.21
CK 368.25 -0.25
CN 373.25 -0.25
WK 470.75 -6.5
WN 478.25 -6.25
Corn trade lower in quiet trade with prices holding above the 50-day moving average. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative but a stronger energy complex this morning could be a sign of improving margins. The weekly ethanol production report showed 2.15% increase in production, stocks were 1.95% lower, with gasoline demand 0.05% higher. This has led to slightly higher ethanol futures trade at midday. Heavy rains in the Mississippi Delta are slowing planting progress with more rain showing in the extended forecasts. The large short position could help fuel a bigger move on strength.
Wheat trade is lower across the three contracts. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term, along with colder temperatures this weekend potentially dinging the crop a bit. Egypt devalued its currency, which will make further wheat imports more expensive. If the FED raises U.S. interest rates today, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of U.S. exports, which could be the main driver of trade late in the day.
Last changes
SMK 267.7 -0.5
SMN 270.4 -0.6
SMQ 271.5 -0.7
SMU 272.6 -0.6
SMV 273.1 -0.5
SMZ 274.7 -0.5
SMF7 275.8 -0.4
SK 894.5 +2.5
SN 900.25 +2.5
SQ 902.25 +2.25
SU 902.25 +2.5
SX 905 +2.25
SF7 909.25 +2.25
BOK 32.69 +0.2
BON 32.92 +0.2
BOQ 33.00 +0.21
CK 368.25 -0.25
CN 373.25 -0.25
WK 470.75 -6.5
WN 478.25 -6.25
Corn trade lower in quiet trade with prices holding above the 50-day moving average. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative but a stronger energy complex this morning could be a sign of improving margins. The weekly ethanol production report showed 2.15% increase in production, stocks were 1.95% lower, with gasoline demand 0.05% higher. This has led to slightly higher ethanol futures trade at midday. Heavy rains in the Mississippi Delta are slowing planting progress with more rain showing in the extended forecasts. The large short position could help fuel a bigger move on strength.
Wheat trade is lower across the three contracts. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term, along with colder temperatures this weekend potentially dinging the crop a bit. Egypt devalued its currency, which will make further wheat imports more expensive. If the FED raises U.S. interest rates today, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of U.S. exports, which could be the main driver of trade late in the day.
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
CBOT Mar15 Closing comment #Soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 15
Last changes
SMK 268.2 -3.3
SMN 271 -3.2
SMQ 272.2 -3.1
SMU 273.2 -3
SMV 273.6 -2.9
SMZ 275.2 -2.8
SMF7 276.2 -2.9
SK 892 -3.75
SN 897.75 -4.25
SQ 900 -4
SU 899.75 -4.25
SX 902.75 -4.25
SF7 907 -4.25
BOK 32.49 +0.04
BON 32.72 +0.04
BOQ 32.79 +0.04
CK 368.50 -0.25
CN 373.50 +0
WK 477.25 -1.5
WN 484.50 -1.25
Soybean trade lower with trading finding selling with harvest continuing to move along in South America along with the more negative tone for commodities today. Meal is lower and oil points higher. South American harvest should continue to progress on a
normal pace with harvest pressure likely to limit near term upside. Long lines at the ports and backups on the highway will likely persist for a while. The COT report showed some of the strength last week was fund short covering. The oil side of the crush complex has been the strongest lately, and will need to stay that way to support crush. On the May soybean chart support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh 2-month high printed Monday at $8.97 then the 200-day at $9.05.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed; overnight trade was down a few cents. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative with some additional pressure from the weak energy trade to start the week, with ethanol futures fractionally lower this morning as they stay range bound. Heavy rains in the Mississippi Delta are slowing planting progress. This is noted supporting futures this morning. The large short position could allow bigger moves upward if additional short covering can be engaged, and another positive finish today would be a step in that direction.
Wheat trade is flat to lower across the three contracts with trade seeing pressure from the weaker row crop trade and stronger dollar. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term which should add support, with excessive moisture in the delta growing areas, while spring wheat has found some better demand lately. Egypt devalued their currency which will make further wheat imports more expensive. India looks to have some stormy weather in the near term which might cause some damage to the growing crop. If the Fed
raises U.S. interest rates this week, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of US exports..
Last changes
SMK 268.2 -3.3
SMN 271 -3.2
SMQ 272.2 -3.1
SMU 273.2 -3
SMV 273.6 -2.9
SMZ 275.2 -2.8
SMF7 276.2 -2.9
SK 892 -3.75
SN 897.75 -4.25
SQ 900 -4
SU 899.75 -4.25
SX 902.75 -4.25
SF7 907 -4.25
BOK 32.49 +0.04
BON 32.72 +0.04
BOQ 32.79 +0.04
CK 368.50 -0.25
CN 373.50 +0
WK 477.25 -1.5
WN 484.50 -1.25
Soybean trade lower with trading finding selling with harvest continuing to move along in South America along with the more negative tone for commodities today. Meal is lower and oil points higher. South American harvest should continue to progress on a
normal pace with harvest pressure likely to limit near term upside. Long lines at the ports and backups on the highway will likely persist for a while. The COT report showed some of the strength last week was fund short covering. The oil side of the crush complex has been the strongest lately, and will need to stay that way to support crush. On the May soybean chart support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh 2-month high printed Monday at $8.97 then the 200-day at $9.05.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed; overnight trade was down a few cents. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative with some additional pressure from the weak energy trade to start the week, with ethanol futures fractionally lower this morning as they stay range bound. Heavy rains in the Mississippi Delta are slowing planting progress. This is noted supporting futures this morning. The large short position could allow bigger moves upward if additional short covering can be engaged, and another positive finish today would be a step in that direction.
Wheat trade is flat to lower across the three contracts with trade seeing pressure from the weaker row crop trade and stronger dollar. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term which should add support, with excessive moisture in the delta growing areas, while spring wheat has found some better demand lately. Egypt devalued their currency which will make further wheat imports more expensive. India looks to have some stormy weather in the near term which might cause some damage to the growing crop. If the Fed
raises U.S. interest rates this week, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of US exports..
Monday, March 14, 2016
CBOT Mar14 Closing comment #soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 14
Last changes
SMH 268.1 -3.9
SMK 271.5 -2
SMN 274.2 -2
SMQ 275.3 -1.9
SMU 276.2 -1.9
SMV 276.5 -2.1
SMZ 278 -2.3
SH 888 +0
SK 895.75 +0
SN 902 +0.5
SQ 904 +0.5
SU 904 +0.5
SX 907 +0.25
BOH 32.25 +0.32
BOK 32.45 +0.32
BON 32.68 +0.31
CH 366.75 +0.75
CK 368.75 +3.75
WH 471.50 +1.75
WK 478.75 +3
Soybean trade is narrowly mixed with trade moving sideways with support from corn and wheat working against South American harvest pressure. Meal is lower and oil is higher. South American harvest should continue to progress on a normal pace with harvest pressure likely to limit upside next week. There were some protests over the weekend, but they were likely insufficient to get the market too excited for a near term
reaction, but unrest in Brazil could eventually become a bigger story. The COT report showed some of the strength last week was fund short covering. The weekly export inspections were a bit softer at 715,816 metric tons. On the May soybean chart support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh two-month high printed today at $8.97 then the 200-day at $9.05
Corn trade higher with trade finding some light buying after the CFTC revealed additional non-commercial shorts added to the market last week. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative with some additional pressure from the weak energy trade to start the week, although ethanol futures have edged marginally higher this morning. The COT report following the session showed funds adding on shorts which gives us a little more short covering power if we can find the reason to move above the next resistance levels early this week. The weekly export inspections were ok at 804,499 metric tons.
Wheat trade higher across the three contracts with light buying on weather concerns to start the week. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term, which should add support, with excessive moisture in the delta growing areas. The ruble has firmed which could hurt Russian export ability, but their winter wheat looks to be in very good shape coming out of winter. India looks to have some stormy weather in the near term which might cause some damage to the growing crop. If the FED raises U.S. interest rates this week, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of U.S. exports.
Last changes
SMH 268.1 -3.9
SMK 271.5 -2
SMN 274.2 -2
SMQ 275.3 -1.9
SMU 276.2 -1.9
SMV 276.5 -2.1
SMZ 278 -2.3
SH 888 +0
SK 895.75 +0
SN 902 +0.5
SQ 904 +0.5
SU 904 +0.5
SX 907 +0.25
BOH 32.25 +0.32
BOK 32.45 +0.32
BON 32.68 +0.31
CH 366.75 +0.75
CK 368.75 +3.75
WH 471.50 +1.75
WK 478.75 +3
Soybean trade is narrowly mixed with trade moving sideways with support from corn and wheat working against South American harvest pressure. Meal is lower and oil is higher. South American harvest should continue to progress on a normal pace with harvest pressure likely to limit upside next week. There were some protests over the weekend, but they were likely insufficient to get the market too excited for a near term
reaction, but unrest in Brazil could eventually become a bigger story. The COT report showed some of the strength last week was fund short covering. The weekly export inspections were a bit softer at 715,816 metric tons. On the May soybean chart support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh two-month high printed today at $8.97 then the 200-day at $9.05
Corn trade higher with trade finding some light buying after the CFTC revealed additional non-commercial shorts added to the market last week. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative with some additional pressure from the weak energy trade to start the week, although ethanol futures have edged marginally higher this morning. The COT report following the session showed funds adding on shorts which gives us a little more short covering power if we can find the reason to move above the next resistance levels early this week. The weekly export inspections were ok at 804,499 metric tons.
Wheat trade higher across the three contracts with light buying on weather concerns to start the week. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term, which should add support, with excessive moisture in the delta growing areas. The ruble has firmed which could hurt Russian export ability, but their winter wheat looks to be in very good shape coming out of winter. India looks to have some stormy weather in the near term which might cause some damage to the growing crop. If the FED raises U.S. interest rates this week, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of U.S. exports.
Saturday, March 12, 2016
CBOT MAr 11 Closing comment #soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Mar 11
Last changes
SMH 272 +1.8
SMK 273.5 +1.6
SMN 276.2 +1.6
SMQ 277.2 +1.5
SMU 278.1 +1.3
SMV 278.6 +1.1
SMZ 280.3 +0.9
SH 888 +6.25
SK 895.75 +6.5
SN 901.5 +6.75
SQ 903.5 +6.75
SU 903.5 +6.25
SX 906.75 +6
BOH 31.93 +0.52
BOK 32.13 +0.51
BON 32.37 +0.51
CH 366.00 +3.5
CK 365.00 +2.25
WH 469.75 -1.75
WK 475.75 -1.25
The Dow is higher today with traders around the world finally deciding that the ECB stimulus yesterday was a good thing. Crude oil is trading at a high of $39.96/barrel on its way to confirming a bottom has probably arrived. Because it is Friday look to possibly trade both sides today.
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is higher. Energies are higher with crude up. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle and feeders sharply higher and hogs mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold down.
Corn trade is higher due to outside market support and noted commercial support. The warm weather should allow early fieldwork to continue to make rapid progress and allow for early planting, although the cooler weather should appear towards the end of next week. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative but the blender economics have improved substantially to start the month. USDA announced 170,800 metric tons of corn sold to Japan.
Soybean trade is higher. Meal is fractionally lower and bean oil is up due to spillover support from the outside markets. Overall there is limited fresh news today illustrated by the mixed daily changes in the soy complex. South American harvest should continue to progress in the near-term potentially triggering some selling later in the session. The Brazilian currency continues to rally improving US competitiveness. Crush margins continue to improve with the strength of the oil side of the complex, with palm oil streaking higher as well. On the May soybean chart, support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh two-month high printed this morning at $8.95, then the 200-day at $9.05.
Last changes
SMH 272 +1.8
SMK 273.5 +1.6
SMN 276.2 +1.6
SMQ 277.2 +1.5
SMU 278.1 +1.3
SMV 278.6 +1.1
SMZ 280.3 +0.9
SH 888 +6.25
SK 895.75 +6.5
SN 901.5 +6.75
SQ 903.5 +6.75
SU 903.5 +6.25
SX 906.75 +6
BOH 31.93 +0.52
BOK 32.13 +0.51
BON 32.37 +0.51
CH 366.00 +3.5
CK 365.00 +2.25
WH 469.75 -1.75
WK 475.75 -1.25
The Dow is higher today with traders around the world finally deciding that the ECB stimulus yesterday was a good thing. Crude oil is trading at a high of $39.96/barrel on its way to confirming a bottom has probably arrived. Because it is Friday look to possibly trade both sides today.
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is higher. Energies are higher with crude up. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle and feeders sharply higher and hogs mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold down.
Corn trade is higher due to outside market support and noted commercial support. The warm weather should allow early fieldwork to continue to make rapid progress and allow for early planting, although the cooler weather should appear towards the end of next week. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative but the blender economics have improved substantially to start the month. USDA announced 170,800 metric tons of corn sold to Japan.
Soybean trade is higher. Meal is fractionally lower and bean oil is up due to spillover support from the outside markets. Overall there is limited fresh news today illustrated by the mixed daily changes in the soy complex. South American harvest should continue to progress in the near-term potentially triggering some selling later in the session. The Brazilian currency continues to rally improving US competitiveness. Crush margins continue to improve with the strength of the oil side of the complex, with palm oil streaking higher as well. On the May soybean chart, support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh two-month high printed this morning at $8.95, then the 200-day at $9.05.
Friday, February 26, 2016
CBOT Feb 26 Closing comment #soybean #corn #wheat
CBOT Feb 26
Last changes
SMH 257.2 -2.8
SMK 260.6 -2.1
SMN 263.3 -1.9
SMQ 264.5 -1.9
SMU 266 -1.7
SMV 266.7 -1.7
SMZ 268.8 -1.4
SH 855 -4
SK 863.5 -2
SN 870 -1.75
SQ 872.5 -1.25
SU 873 -1
SX 876 -0.75
BOH 31.03 +0.38
BOK 31.23 +0.32
BON 31.47 +0.33
CH 354.50 -1
CK 359.50 -1
WH 443.25 -2
WK 452.25 -1.75
U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the DOW futures down. Interest rate products are higher. The dollar index points higher. Energies are mixed with crude up. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold down.
The markets opened on a mixed note and stayed that way throughout the session with traders taking profits on short positions. Major trend trades came back into play with spreaders buying soyoil / sell meal, with a slant towards buy corn/sell beans, courtesy of the USDA Agriculture Forum numbers.
The major feature in the soy complex was that of higher soyoil futures which found support from rising crude oil prices which traded at $34.69/barrel, the highest level since January. July oilshare rose from .37% up to .3753% in May. May meal quickly dropped to new contract lows at $258.90 where it found light pricing interest. May soyoil prices put in a very firm trade heading back towards the 3150's level, a chart stabilizing trade. Beans tried to maintain an even keel, starting a bit higher but finding pressure from meal's new contract lows.
Corn futures are lower. Ethanol margins should be getting a boost from the stronger energy complex with the switchover to the more expensive spring gasoline blends under way. South American corn looks to catch better rains for double-crop acres in the extended forecast. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum put new-crop carryout for this year at 1.9771 bil bu on a 168 yield and 90 mil acres. The sell-off this week appeared to be in anticipation of negative numbers like we have discussed. Basis has been soft this week with more active farmer movement.
Wheat futures lower with the weaker row crops and stronger dollar dragging wheat prices down. Egypt returned to the market Thursday and was able to secure further supplies from the Black Sea area as U.S. wheat remains uncompetitive on the world market. Weather looks nonthreatening in the near term. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum has wheat acres at 51.4 mil acres with a 938 mil bu carryout.
fund recap
sold 3000 wheat
sold 7000 corn
sold 5000 beans
sold 300 meal
bot 3000 soyoil
CLOSING COMMENTS
While there may not be many bull market opportunities here, seems that a few primary trends are coming to the fore - both old and new. On the old buy soyoil / sell meal is still alive and well as witnessed today. As to the new think we are going to see sell corn and buy bean (maybe even wheat) trade moving forward. With March on the doorstep, if farmers can get into the field to plant they will. Up to now corn prices have reflected value, trading sideways. But it's hard to keep corn prices up when the crop begins to get into the ground. The Forum numbers which were bearish corn/friendlier beans, could have jump started the process today.
Last changes
SMH 257.2 -2.8
SMK 260.6 -2.1
SMN 263.3 -1.9
SMQ 264.5 -1.9
SMU 266 -1.7
SMV 266.7 -1.7
SMZ 268.8 -1.4
SH 855 -4
SK 863.5 -2
SN 870 -1.75
SQ 872.5 -1.25
SU 873 -1
SX 876 -0.75
BOH 31.03 +0.38
BOK 31.23 +0.32
BON 31.47 +0.33
CH 354.50 -1
CK 359.50 -1
WH 443.25 -2
WK 452.25 -1.75
U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the DOW futures down. Interest rate products are higher. The dollar index points higher. Energies are mixed with crude up. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold down.
The markets opened on a mixed note and stayed that way throughout the session with traders taking profits on short positions. Major trend trades came back into play with spreaders buying soyoil / sell meal, with a slant towards buy corn/sell beans, courtesy of the USDA Agriculture Forum numbers.
The major feature in the soy complex was that of higher soyoil futures which found support from rising crude oil prices which traded at $34.69/barrel, the highest level since January. July oilshare rose from .37% up to .3753% in May. May meal quickly dropped to new contract lows at $258.90 where it found light pricing interest. May soyoil prices put in a very firm trade heading back towards the 3150's level, a chart stabilizing trade. Beans tried to maintain an even keel, starting a bit higher but finding pressure from meal's new contract lows.
Corn futures are lower. Ethanol margins should be getting a boost from the stronger energy complex with the switchover to the more expensive spring gasoline blends under way. South American corn looks to catch better rains for double-crop acres in the extended forecast. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum put new-crop carryout for this year at 1.9771 bil bu on a 168 yield and 90 mil acres. The sell-off this week appeared to be in anticipation of negative numbers like we have discussed. Basis has been soft this week with more active farmer movement.
Wheat futures lower with the weaker row crops and stronger dollar dragging wheat prices down. Egypt returned to the market Thursday and was able to secure further supplies from the Black Sea area as U.S. wheat remains uncompetitive on the world market. Weather looks nonthreatening in the near term. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum has wheat acres at 51.4 mil acres with a 938 mil bu carryout.
fund recap
sold 3000 wheat
sold 7000 corn
sold 5000 beans
sold 300 meal
bot 3000 soyoil
CLOSING COMMENTS
While there may not be many bull market opportunities here, seems that a few primary trends are coming to the fore - both old and new. On the old buy soyoil / sell meal is still alive and well as witnessed today. As to the new think we are going to see sell corn and buy bean (maybe even wheat) trade moving forward. With March on the doorstep, if farmers can get into the field to plant they will. Up to now corn prices have reflected value, trading sideways. But it's hard to keep corn prices up when the crop begins to get into the ground. The Forum numbers which were bearish corn/friendlier beans, could have jump started the process today.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)